Making the case for Johan Rojas over Austin Hays as an everyday player

When the Phillies acquired veteran outfielder Austin Hays from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache, they insisted that the right-handed-hitting Hays was more than just a platoon partner for Brandon Marsh. Hays had extreme traditional batting splits, indicating he is a quality hitter against left-handed pitching and well below-average at the plate against right-handers, but Phillies manager Rob Thomson asserted that Hays can be an everyday left fielder if given the opportunity — and has largely used him as such, with Marsh often platooning in center field with Johan Rojas.

But on Friday night, in the second game of a crucial series against the Atlanta Braves and a right-handed starter on the mound, Thomson went to Rojas in center field with Marsh in left field and Hays on the bench. It was just the second time Rojas has started against a right-handed pitcher since Hays returned from the Injured List on August 23.

While fortifying their division lead and ultimately earning their first National League East crown since 2011 is the main priority in the final month of the regular season, the Phillies must also use September to self-scout so they are in the best possible position to maximize what they have in October. 

With each passing day, it becomes more difficult to justify utilizing Hays on an everyday basis, as his numbers against right-handed pitchers simply have not improved. While there are fair concerns about having Rojas in the lineup on a daily basis, as things stand now it appears to be the optimal path for the Phillies.

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In 49 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since joining the Phillies, Hays has two extra-base hits. He has struck out 13 times and has not walked even once. He has slashed .213/.245/.298. The Phillies' hypothesis that consistent playing time would lead to improved production simply has not proven to be true so far, and they are running out of time for Hays to prove that he deserves to be in Thomson's lineup against the toughest right-handers in the biggest games.

The obvious alternative is Rojas, who is certainly not an offensive weapon of any sort himself, but does allow the Phillies to upgrade their defense considerably at two outfield positions: instead of a below-average left fielder in Hays and a decent center fielder in Marsh, they can slide Marsh to left — where he has been among baseball's elite defenders in 2024 — with the indomitable Rojas manning center field and catching practically any fly ball to center field that does not leave the yard.

On top of the defensive factors that make Rojas the superior choice over Hays, the rookie 24-year-old's offense is actually improving right now. Entering the final day of August, he is batting .292 over the course of the entire month and — perhaps more importantly — is cutting down on his strikeouts. Rojas' speed (99th percentile, according to Baseball Savant) puts fear in opposing defenses — even on weakly-hit ground balls — and offers him chances to leg out infield hits that many players would not have any chance of collecting. When he can just avoid punching out, he gives himself some additional margin for error that most players do not have.

It is far too early to conclude that this will be a career-long trend — and the sample size remains relatively small — but for what it's worth, the right-handed-hitting Rojas actually has drastic reverse splits in 2024. He has performed much better at the plate against right-handed pitchers than he has against lefties:

The Phillies clearly do not buy that Rojas is this bad against left-handed pitching — otherwise, they would have traded for a center fielder who could start against southpaws — but it is worth noting that he may not be as hopeless against righties as one might assume.

There is also a tactical aspect to the concept of playing Rojas over Hays against right-handers. In October, skippers across baseball micromanage. They hunt for optimal matchups very early in games, they look to box their counterpart in the opposite dugout into a corner. Part of the reason the Phillies have dominated the Braves for two straight years in October is that Thomson has brilliantly planned to create and capitalize on the perfect matchups.

The bottom of the sixth inning during Thursday's series opener against Atlanta was illuminating. Hays started alongside Marsh against veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, and the Phillies offense was struggling to come through with runners in scoring position. With the Phillies trailing 4-0, Marsh came up to face the 40-year-old Morton, who had just reached 100 pitches, and the Braves had left-handed reliever Aaron Bummer ready to enter the game. In 2024, Marsh is batting .200 with a 41.8 strikeout percent against left-handers. 

If Braves manager Brian Snitker opted to summon Bummer, Thomson would have had two choices: have Marsh stand in the batter's box against a lefty in the most important at-bat of the game at that point, or use Weston Wilson as a pinch-hitter for Marsh, and then bring Rojas into the game in place of Wilson to play center field for the remainder of the game. At that point, they would have been out of outfielders on the bench — unable to bring in a pinch-hitter for Rojas if he came up in a massive spot later on.

Of course, Snitker kept Morton in the game, Marsh launched a three-run home run to left-center field to bring the Phillies within a run, and Nick Castellanos gave them the lead with a two-run shot in the following inning. If Bummer came on and retired Marsh — as most lefties do — the Phillies would not have staged a comeback. Snitker gave them breathing room and they capitalized.

Once October begins, Marsh may never see a critical plate appearance against a right-handed pitcher beyond the starting pitcher's first time through the batting order. The scouting report is out — he can mash righties and is close to an automatic out against lefties. 

Inserting Rojas into the starting lineup for Hays improves the defense — and, potentially, the overall output — of the nine players on the field for the Phillies when the first pitch of the game is thrown. But it also sets up Thomson to maximize matchups he likes as the game goes on. 

Rojas starting a game does not mean he must finish it. Not only can Thomson bring in a pinch hitter for him in a crucial spot late in the game, he can do it early in the game. If Rojas came up with two outs and the bases loaded in his first at-bat of the game, Thomson could use a pinch hitter right then and there if he likes the matchup. One of the perks of having several part-time outfielders is that you have the requisite depth to be aggressive with pinch hitters early in games.

This point of view is not nearly as much of an endorsement of Rojas as it is a condemnation of the Phillies' trade deadline approach. Their need for an additional outfielder who is a true everyday player was obvious. They left it up to chance, hoping Hays would improve, and got burned.

But the time for a full-blown referendum of the team's approach to the trade deadline will come in a few months. It is August 31 — Thomson's options in the outfield are not changing between now and the first day of Red October, and he has to figure out how to get the best out of it. And the best way to do that might be to put Hays back in his ideal role as a platoon left fielder and returning Rojas to center field on an everyday basis.

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