Phillies bullpen confidence meter: Who will take down the biggest outs in October?

The Phillies have a star-studded and versatile bullpen. Which options should manager Rob Thomson trust the most?

Jeff Hoffman pitched like an All-Star for most of the year in 2024, but fell apart in the postseason.
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies entered the All-Star break with a 62-34 record — an astounding 28 games over .500 — giving them the best record in all of baseball by quite a bit and the largest division lead of any team in the majors.

Perhaps the most significant factor in this dream season has been the team's outstanding starting pitching, which even after taking a few injury hits over the last month remains excellent. But the Phillies, four years removed from subjecting the world to one of the single worst bullpens in the history of baseball during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, now boast what might be the strongest collection of relief pitchers in the majors.

In most cases, Phillies manager Rob Thomson plays the matchups rather than assigning traditional bullpen roles, and he has been given a bullpen that is conducive to that style of managing.

With the Phillies reconvene and begin the remainder of the regular season on Friday in Pittsburgh, which healthy relief options should Thomson trust the most?

No. 10: Michael Mercado 

Mercado was called up last month after starring in Triple-A as a starter and threw a scoreless inning of relief before being moved to the starting rotation. He threw five innings of one-run ball at Wrigley Field, but has struggled mightily ever since. He was rocked by the Atlanta Braves in his next start, and as a follower on Sunday afternoon he was pummeled by the last-place Oakland A's. Perhaps a reset down in Lehigh Valley is in order for Mercado in the near future.

No. 9: Tyler Phillips

What a story Phillips is. The South Jersey native grew up a Phillies season ticket holder, and made his first major-league start on Saturday at the ballpark he used to attend as a fan. Phillips had an admirable effort in his first start, though Thomson may have given him a bit too long of a leash. Phillips came in as a long man in Atlanta after Mercado's rough outing and impressed in a major way, earning the opportunity to start against Oakland. Phillips is expected to start again at some point during the Pittsburgh series, and could have a rotation spot solidified until Taijuan Walker returns from the Injured List.

No. 8: José Ruiz 

Ruiz had a very strong start to his Phillies tenure after being recalled from Triple-A as a long reliever who quickly became viable in the middle innings and even the occasional high leverage spot. July has been rough for him after two solid months:

May + JuneJuly
21 G6 G
23.0 IP5.1 IP
3.13 ERA13.50 ERA
.688 OPS1.324 OPS

Ruiz might be best as a swingman in the minors who can eat innings in the event of an injury rather than a cemented piece of a major-league bullpen. He is ahead of Phillips here because he has considerably more experience in the majors, not to mention considerably more experience coming out of the bullpen.

No. 7: Seranthony Domínguez

After a brief revival, Domínguez's fall from grace has accelerated so far this month. Breaking down Domínguez's season into month-long periods paints a jarring picture:

April/MarchMayJuneJuly
12 G9 G10 G5 G
10.1 IP8.2 IP8.2 IP6.1 IP
9.58 ERA1.04 ERA1.04 ERA7.11 ERA
.954 OPS.406 OPS.438 OPS.926 OPS


Perhaps the most ominous part of Domínguez's struggles over the last few weeks: he has allowed three home runs in his five July appearances. When Domínguez is right, he can help carry a bullpen in October. But when he is not at his best, his blowups can sink a bullpen. His 4.76 ERA on the season is not encouraging.

No. 6: Yunior Marte

Marte has had a solid season so far, posting a 3.31 ERA across 15 major-league appearance (16.1 innings pitched). But he was optioned to Triple-A near the beginning of the month so the team could bring up Phillips and utilize his length as they tried to eat up innings.

Once the team stabilizes its long relief situation, Marte could emerge back into the picture as a middle reliever who is particularly effective against right-handed hitters.

If the Phillies do end up adding a relief pitcher before the trade deadline in a few weeks, this might be the most reasonable spot to upgrade: finding a right-handed arm who is not necessarily going to be entrusted with the highest-leverage opportunities like the two remaining right-handers who will follow Marte on this list, but is clearly capable of taking down a middle-inning appearance in a meaningful game.

No. 5: Gregory Soto (L)

Soto did not look like the All-Star lefty that the Phillies thought they had acquired last season, and a strong start to 2024 was derailed by an outing in which he allowed five earned runs while only getting one out.

However, Soto entered the All-Star break with a rock-solid 3.41 ERA, though, because in 30 appearances since that blowup — spanning two and a half months — he has a 2.08 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 26.0 innings pitched and has held opposing hitters to a .309 slugging percentage.

Command is still the biggest issue for Soto, who had the best season of his career last year from the standpoint of limiting walks, but has allowed more than five free passes per nine innings this season.

The Phillies enjoy the luxury of having two lefty relievers who they believe can retire any batter on either side of the plate. But when October arrives, Thomson will aim to use Soto against left-handed hitters and avoid having him face righties. His platoon splits make it easy to see why.

LHH vs. SotoRHH vs. Soto
52 PA93 PA
.152 AVG.311 AVG
.250 OBP.430 OBP
.239 SLG.405 SLG


One more encouraging part of Soto's season: he has only allowed one home run.

No. 4: José Alvarado (L)

If you told me on Opening Day that by this time of year, Alvarado would be the team's fourth-best bullpen weapon, I would have anticipated a complete meltdown taking place. That is not the case.

Alvarado has not had the best season of his career, and his last handful of weeks have been particularly tough (perhaps the time off will do him some favors). But this ranking is much more about the three players ahead of Alvarado than about the southpaw flame-thrower himself.

Alvarado has a 3.92 ERA on the year. If you remove his disastrous Opening Day appearance in which he allowed five runs in 0.2 innings, he has a 2.82 ERA across 40 appearances (38.1 innings pitched) on the year, striking out more than one batter per inning.

Alvarado is one of the two lefties in this bullpen who the Phillies are comfortable using to attack right-handed hitters if necessary, but perhaps the most impressive part of his 2024 campaign so far is the way he has dominated left-handed hitters, who in 47 plate appearances are slashing a combined .093/.170/.116.

When the Phillies face some of the league's most feared left-handed hitters in October, Alvarado could be their preferred option on the mound.

No. 3: Orion Kerkering

Kerkering, who last month discussed his rapid rise through the Phillies organization and first full major-league season in a conversation with PhillyVoice, would be the top option out of the bullpen of the vast majority of major-league teams. But the Phillies' relief pitching has been so good that it is almost an afterthought that Kerkering, who had three regular season appearances in the major leagues before this season, has a 1.26 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 35 games (35.2 innings pitched) in 2024.

Kerkering has combined masterful strikeout stuff with excellent command, and strengthened his fastball to keep opposing hitters from sitting on his slider, which is one of the most effective pitches of any pitcher in all of baseball. That pitch makes it nearly impossible for right-handed hitters to touch Kerkering, and the development of the heater has stifled left-handed hitters.

Across regular season and postseason play, Kerkering has tossed 44.0 innings in the majors. He has yet to allow a single home run. What he is doing is nearly unprecedented for a rookie relief pitcher.

No. 2: Matt Strahm (L)

Strahm allowed two earned runs on Opening Day, and followed it up with 27 straight appearances without allowing an earned run. He had a brief rough patch (only relatively speaking), but once again looks like a pitcher at the top of his game. The development of Strahm's slider has been a major factor in his growth from a reliable left-handed reliever to one of the very best in the sport.

Strahm retired Shohei Ohtani in two different key spots during the Phillies' sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers last week, and Thomson said that the slider — a pitch Ohtani has struggled against this season — was the reason he was called upon in those situations.

Strahm enters his first All-Star Game appearance with a 1.49 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP.

No. 1: Jeff Hoffman 

What a ride for Hoffman: at the start of 2023, he was nearly out of the majors for good, now he is the most trusted reliever for the best team in baseball as part of what might be the best bullpen in baseball.

Hoffman strikes out everybody, rarely walks batters, has allowed two home runs all year and barely even allows hits altogether. He is tops among FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) among all National League relievers (Strahm is second), with a 1.12 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.

Hoffman is set to hit free agency following this season, and retaining him beyond 2024 should be a priority for the Phillies. The 31 year old has earned quite a payday.


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