November 02, 2023
The most productive closer, statistically, in Phillies history is Jonathan Papelbon.
That's not a joke — that's factual.
No Phillies reliever has had more than his 123 saves since the statistic became an official one in 1969, with four other closers tallying over 100 in their Philadelphia careers: Jose Mesa (112), Steve Bedrosian (103), Mitch Williams (102) and Brad Lidge (100).
But more importantly, the team has not had a reliable ninth inning guy in a decade.
It showed in the postseason, as the Phillies seemed to force the issue to give Craig Kimbrel — a proven closer in his own right but in his age-35 season — the majority of the high leverage chances. He faltered in a big way in the NLCS, blowing back-to-back games and costing the Phils a World Series berth.
As the Phillies have emerged as championship hopefuls the last two seasons, they have totally sputtered out in pursuit of having a reliable, no-brainer ninth inning guy:
• Craig Kimbrel — blew two NLCS savesThe Phillies are going to be getting a lot of press for their pursuit of Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, and for the other big name free agents out there, but they need a closer. And with the stacked roster they have returning for 2024, it might actually be the biggest priority this team has this offseason.
• Jose Alvarado — more of a lefty specialist who has blown 29% of career save opportunities
• Seranthony Dominguez — has blown 36% of career save opportunities
• Gregory Soto — blew half of his save chances last season
• Corey Knebel — blew 25% of his save opportunities in 2022, did not pitch in postseason
• David Robertson — pitched well in 2022 postseason but did not return to team for age-38 season
• Brad Hand — pitched okay in 2022 postseason, blew 29% of save opportunities during regular season and did not return
In the ninth inning, the Phillies were not the picture of consistency and calmness in 2023. Here's how the bullpen stacked up during save situations:
| Category | Stat | MLB Rank |
| Save % | 63% | 14th |
| Total blown saves | 26 | 13th |
| HR allowed | 21 | 27th |
| ERA | 3.21 | 11th |
Those aren't the numbers you'd expect from a team expecting to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy.
Kimbrel is off the books and in all likelihood not returning next season — so we elected not to waste an entire "stay or go" article on him. Returning for next season at the back end of the bullpen will be Soto, Dominguez, Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman. The team probably will want more ammo there.
Will Dave Dombrowski and company go with one of those guys to close games next season? Will they go with a committee approach? Or will they spend some more money?
With so many expensive and talented pieces on the roster, it would be odd if they didn't spend on the back of the bullpen — particularly at closer. Imagine having someone enter the field at Citizens Bank Park to close out the ninth that has the confidence and excitement of the fanbase instead of this (from Game 6 of the NLCS):
Awkward entrance for Craig Kimbrel 😬 pic.twitter.com/mz7biVkFEh
— SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (@SportsRadioWIP) October 23, 2023
Here's a look at the 10 best options for 2024 and their expected salary, from Spotrac.com's projection:
| Player | Age | Career saves | Proj. Salary |
| Craig Kimbrel | 35 | 417 | $9m |
| Josh Hader | 29 | 165 | $18m |
| Jose Leclerc | 30 | 40 | $11m |
| Liam Hendriks | 34 | 116 | $10m |
| Hector Neris | 34 | 89 | $8m |
| Aroldis Chapman | 35 | 321 | $7m |
| Will Smith | 34 | 113 | $7m |
| Joe Jiménez | 28 | 20 | $6m |
| Michael Fulmer | 30 | 19 | $5m |
| Adam Ottavino | 37 | 45 | $5m |
Kimbrel is among the best to ever do it, but a reunion doesn't feel like it's in the cards. The problem with free agent closers is they're either old, or inexperienced. There are few guys in the sweet spot.
Which is why it could be Josh Hader or bust if the Phillies hope to have an elite guy next season. The free agent had a 1.28 ERA last season in San Diego and successfully closed out 33 of 38 save attempts (81%). He also has a 1.37 ERA over 16 postseason appearances.
The Phillies could do it on the cheap, or try and go the homegrown route — or they can try and make a splash and bring in yet another free agent to take the closer's role.
It's just another of the Phillies intriguing offseason storylines to keep an eye on this fall and winter.
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