July 06, 2022
The season is officially at its halfway point, and the Phillies (43-38) are currently in possession of their own playoff destiny.
If someone told Phillies fans (and the front office) that at the start of the season, they'd surely sign up for it. However, it came with a managerial firing and a serious injury to the team's reigning MVP.
Before we turn the page to see if they can keep it up for the next 81 games, let's look at some key numbers that help to define the first half of Phillies baseball this season:
The Phillies have scored the second most runs in the NL, and have the most runs of any of the NL's wild card contenders (trailing only 403 runs scored by the Dodgers and 405 from the Yankees). The executives who put together this roster in the offseason were envisioning this exact kind of run production. The franchise record is 892 runs from the 2007 season.
Schwarber had a 34-game on base streak (walks or hits) spanning from May 26 through July 1. Over that span, he won the NL Player of the month for June, and the Phillies fired off their nine-game win streak in the wake of Joe Girardi's firing. Schwarber has had an interesting season, batting just .219, but boasting 25 homers and a .336 on-base rate. The Phillies were 21-13 during his streak.
Only two teams in the National League hit the ball 95 MPH or harder more frequently than the Phillies, who have an average exit velocity of 88.6 MPH. Why is this important? Well, the harder the Phils hit the ball more consistently, the more likely they are to get base hits. The Phillies also go to the opposite field 20.1 percent of the time, more than any other NL team — helping them to beat the shift more than any other team in the league.
On the other side of the coin, the Phillies have very good hustle stats, including this one, the third best stolen base rate in the majors. Their 52 stolen bags is a sneaky 7th best in the majors, and baserunners on the team in general have been smart, making just 14 mistakes resulting in outs — the fewest of any team.
Only the Padres have more quality starts from their rotation this season in the National League than the Phillies, who have 35 of them. In addition, the Phillies starting staff receives the most run support in the NL, five runs per game. These two factors have the Phillies in position to win games more than lose them.
This number is actually not as bad as you might think, 17th best of 30 MLB teams which is, you know, better than the last few years. The pen has stepped up in recent weeks and that could be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs. For reference, the Phillies starters have a 3.83 ERA, 10th best.
It's also interesting that the Phillies pitching staff as a whole has allowed the fourth lowest exit velocity as a staff in baseball, with only 35.9 percent of pitches hit hard (more than 95 MPH), the second slowest of any team.
Aaron Nola (3.3) and Zack Wheeler (2.8) are each in the top 6 in pitching WAR of all hurlers in the National League. If each continues to pitch like an ace, and stays healthy, there could be a semblance of an effective playoff rotation — and then you never know how far they could advance.
Nola also has the best walk rate in the NL, the second most strikeouts and the best K-to-BB rate in the league.
It's no secret that, as a whole, the Phillies bullpen has been a weakness this season. As a percentage of inherited runners left for a reliever, the Phillies have allowed more runners to score than 22 MLB teams, and only the lowly Reds have allowed more runners to score in total.
Defense was expected to be the biggest issue for this team heading into the season, and there have been no shortage of blunders all around the field. But it hasn't been as detrimental as many thought it might be. They have the 10th best fielding percentage so far this year and their 41 errors are the 17th most. Both are passable.
Rob Thomson îs 21-9 as the Phillies manager which seems like such an arbitrary stat — after Girardi's firing-worthy 22-29 mark, but for whatever reason this team is playing for Thomson and whether the change for change's sake is what did it, Thomson has the Phillies playing like a contender. This is even more impressive as he's succeeded managerial despite Bryce Harper's broken hand, an injury that came as Harper raked the ball as a DH (which an elbow injury keeping him from the field).
Man, it's been a weird season.
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