How Phillies are showing it could be different this season

The sample size is small — just nine games (seven of them wins) — but the early returns show that the Phillies have done more than simply run it back with the exact same team in the exact same way.

And that's what they'll need to do if they hope to make another deep run in October.

Plagued by a lack of starting pitching depth, a frustratingly high chase rate, and tagged for the first part of 2024 as having a weak schedule, Philly has already turned heads by bucking all three trends and themes from last season.

Whether or not they can ride it to 95 or more wins and avoid another postseason flameout is something we won't know until well after Labor Day, but fans can once again be excited and optimistic about their championship hopes.

Starting pitching depth

Last season, Taijuan Walker was a shell of an MLB starting pitcher, going 3-7 with a 7.10 ERA and -1.6 WAR in 19 games (15 starts). After he was sidelined with an injury, a cavalcade of minor leaguers got the chance to pitch in his spot — from Kolby Allard to Tyler Phillips to Michael Mercado — with mostly dreadful results.

It's a testament to the rest of the staff and to the offense that the team was still able to run away with the NL East. 

This season, Walker looks totally different, having filled in admirably for Ranger Suárez with six scoreless innings last week. Suárez's back injury should be resolved soon, and Walker will return to the bullpen, but it is a very comforting thought to have a sixth man ready to go. Behind him, Joe Ross is seventh in the pecking order, a hurler with big league starting bonafides.

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And most exciting is Andrew Painter waiting in the wings. The organization's top pitching prospect, and one of the most hyped youngsters in the sport, is expected to join the major league team — if all goes according to plan — sometime this summer. The big righty is scheduled to make his 2025 debut in a Single-A start on Friday. He has been rehabbing from Tommy John surgery for about a year and a half, and all signs are pointing to him being ready to make the leap in July. It could be the best trade deadline addition the team makes. 

Plate discipline 

Last October, the Phillies swung and missed their way to an NLDS exit (their first round of playoff action against the Mets). The focus this spring was to turn that around, and after leading spring training in walks, it looked sort of like the Phillies were actually improving their tendency to chase way too many pitches.

And after a ridiculous Opening Day win that saw the Phillies strike out 19 times in 10 innings, they more than righted the ship. Heading into Tuesday night's games, the Phillies have the lowest chase rate percentage of all 30 MLB teams. Last year, they were unsurprisingly 25th in that category.

These numbers are further reinforced by the team's "edge percentage," which is second in the league at 39.8% — painting the picture that hitters are seeing the strike zone remarkably well thus far.

The Phillies' patience at the plate could get them beyond 95 wins if it continues. Through their nine games, they are second in the majors in on-base percentage (.365). 

Schedule

Back in the spring and early summer of 2024, the Phillies were cruising and were clearly the best team in baseball. But there were doubters, and the doubt was spurred on by the team's objectively cupcake schedule for the first half or so of the regular season. After coming out of the gates with a 62-34 record, the Phils finished the year as a .500 baseball team (33-33).

That criticism won't be applicable a week from now. The Phillies just finished taking two of three games from the defending World Series champion Dodgers, boasting the highest payroll in the game, while also handing them their first two losses of the young season.

The lackluster competition they faced in the first two series against the Nationals and Rockies served as a nice tuneup, but the Braves (favored by many to win the NL East) and the Cardinals (contenders in the NL Central) await, on the road, this week. The quality competition is consistent from there.

The next few series:

If we assume the Braves will figure it out and become a playoff contender eventually (they have the roster and track record to do so), the slate above is quite the early season test. If the Phillies are still dominant at the end of April, it will tell us a lot about how this team measures up to the rest of the National League.

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