October 10, 2022
Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 20: A photo from the Philadelphia Phillies game against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 20, 2022 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. (Photo by Kate Frese/PhillyVoice)
The Phillies and Braves know each other pretty darn well. The duo of NL East foes played 19 times during the 2022 regular season, with Atlanta triumphing in 11 of those. They were separated by just three runs total over those games, but obviously the Braves had the better season, eclipsing Philly by an impressive 14 games in the overall standings.
Not surprisingly, the Braves are favored in the series -150, with the higher seed hosting the first two games (and a possible Game 5).
Before the series gets underway in Georgia Tuesday afternoon at 1 p.m., let's take a look at which team has the biggest edge when it comes to hitting, pitching, coaching and more
It would be hard to find a team that can balance out having to face J.T. Realmuto for an entire series at catcher than the Braves, who boast a really impressive one-two punch of Travis d'Arnaud and William Contreras, who combined for 38 homers and 105 RBI this season
The Phillies on the other hand have the BCIB (best catcher in baseball) in J.T. Realmuto, who many would agree has been the team MVP this season. His numbers, while also playing a mean defensive backstop are impressive: .276/.342/.478, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 21 SB.
Advantage: Neither
The Phillies and Braves both can bash the ball, with Philadelphia obviously led by Kyle Schwarber and his NL-best 46 dingers. There is power up and down the Phils' lineup, with Bryce Harper's partial season showing tons of extra base hit potential, Rhys Hoskins' 30 homers and Realmuto's 22 HR and 84 RBI impressive for a catcher.
| Stat | Phillies | Braves |
| Runs/gm | 4.61 (5th in NL) | 4.87 (2nd) |
| Homers | 205 (4th) | 243 (1st) |
| Slugging | .422 (3rd) | .443 (1st) |
| 20+ HR hitters | 3* | 5 |
*Harper had 18 and missed 60 games due to injury
Atlanta on the other hand has the most homers in the entire National League and they have the ability to swing a game very quickly with power up and down the lineup. They're led by Austin Riley's 38 home runs and Matt Olson's 34. The Braves have three hitters with 90+ RBI as well as six hitters with 24 or more doubles. The Phillies will need to win the power battle and keep the Braves in the ballpark to have a chance to win the series.
Advantage: Braves
No National League team struck out more than the Braves did in 2022 (1,498 times). That is often a trade off when you make your money with a power stroke, but it favors the Phillies if they're able to find a way to play more of a small ball style in this five-game series.
The numbers:
| Stat | Phillies | Braves |
| Batting avg. | .253 (3rd) | .253 (4th) |
| OBP | .317 (5th) | .317 (5th) |
| Walks | 478 (9th) | 470 (10th) |
| Stolen bases | 105 (3rd) | 87 (9th) |
The Phillies have been a great base running team this season and they have a lot more speed than one might think. It will be up to the Phils' pitching staff to try and wring up as many Braves as it can.
Advantage: Phillies
The following are simply estimates but these are the likely matchups in the first three games of the series:
| Phillies | Braves | |
| Game 1 | Ranger Suárez 10-7, 3.65 ERA | Max Fried 14-7, 2.48 ERA |
| Game 2 | Aaron Nola 11-13, 3.25 ERA | Kyle Wright 21-5, 3.19 ERA |
| Game 3 | Zack Wheeler 12-7, 2.82 ERA | Charlie Morton 9-6, 4.34 ERA |
It would be hard not to give the nod in this category to the Phillies after the dominating performances Wheeler and Nola gave in the Phillies' wins in St. Louis. Each kept the potent Cardinals scoreless and they're peaking at the best possible time.
The Braves staff is no joke, with their top two as good as any tandem in baseball. Will the extended time off perhaps get their staff out of rhythm?
Interestingly, the Phillies' first three starters in the series have faced the Braves a combined 13 times, and have all had a lot of success against them. Nola is 3-2 with a 3.67 ERA, Suarez is 1-2 and a 3.21 ERA, and Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.70.
"I faced them a couple times in the regular season," Suárez told the media Monday. "I know they're a really good team. That's no secret there. But I try not to think too much about that challenge because that's why we're at this stage of the year. It's going to be a tough battle. But it's something that I try not to think too much about."
On the other side, Morton is 0-1 with a 5.47 ERA in five appearances against Philly, while Fried has a 3.13 ERA in four starts and Wright a 2.83 in three.
The Phillies will get a slight edge here, and their Game 3 matchup advantage might be pivotal in the series.
Advantage: Phillies
As expected, the Phillies' bullpen is not as good as the Braves' bullpen.
| Stat | Phillies | Braves |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.27 (11th) | 3.03 (2nd) |
| Bullpen saves | 42/60 (70%) | 55/83 (66%) |
| Key relievers | David Robertson José Alverado Nick Nelson Conner Brogdon | AJ Minter Will Smith Colin McHugh Bryce Elder |
| Closer | Seranthony Domínguez (6-5, 3.00 ERA) | Kenley Jansen (3.38 ERA, 41 saves) |
The Phils' pen had a few hiccups against the Cardinals last weekend but the spectacular starting pitching from Wheeler and Nola combined with some timely hitting (and walks and hit by pitches as the case might be) made those blemishes irrelevant.
If this is a series the Phillies hope to win, they're going to need to find ways of minimizing the impact their bullpen will have on the series. It will be interesting to see if they keep using converted starter Zach Eflin as their ninth-inning man, and if José Alvarado is able to be the impact late-inning lefty the Phils desperately need him to be.
Advantage: Braves
Phillies manager Rob Thomson had an incredible first season as an MLB manager, as shown by his recent two-year extension that takes the "interim" tag off his job title. He also was one of the main reasons they won in the Wild Card round. He is experienced and seems like he has the team firing on all cylinders right now.
However, Brian Snitker won the World Series last year with the Braves, won 101 games in the regular season, and he and his coaching staff clearly have the edge heading into the series.
Advantage: Braves
Follow Evan on Twitter: @evan_macy
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
