July 18, 2024
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports
The real season is about to begin for Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and the Phillies.
The Phillies went into this week's All-Star break at 62-34.
They have the best record in baseball and a pretty comfortable 8.5-game lead over the Braves in the NL East race coming back for the latter half of the season and the true march toward October.
But plenty of clubs have torn straight through the season's first half before.
Will the Phillies' work to this point all translate into second-half and then postseason success?
Looking through the past decade, here is how all the teams who went into the All-Star break with MLB's best record fared coming back...
| MLB Leader | At Break | Final | Postseason Berth | Won WS? |
| 2024 Phillies | 62-34 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 Braves | 60-29 | 104-58 (b) | NL East Winner | No |
| 2022 Yankees | 64-28 | 99-63 | AL East Winner | No |
| 2021 Giants | 57-32 | 107-55 (b) | NL West Winner | No |
| *2020 Dodgers | N/A | 43-17 | NL West Winner | Yes |
| 2019 Dodgers | 60-32 | 106-56 | NL West Winner | No |
| 2018 Red Sox | 68-30 | 108-54 (b) | AL East Winner | Yes |
| 2017 Dodgers | 61-29 | 104-58 (b) | NL West Winner | No |
| 2016 Giants | 57-33 | 87-75 | NL Wild Card | No |
| 2015 Cardinals | 56-33 | 100-62 (b) | NL Central Winner | No |
| 2014 Athletics | 59-36 | 88-74 | AL Wild Card | No |
b – indicates team kept MLB's best record; *COVID season, no All-Star Game
So as you can see above, only one team in the last 10 full seasons has taken the best record into the All-Star break, then went on to win the World Series – the 2018 Boston Red Sox.
This isn't all necessarily an indicator of what might happen to the 2024 Phils, but history can offer up some patterns and a bit of insight.
Some quick notes on each of the clubs in the table...
• Spencer Strider and the 2023 Braves were completely untouchable in the NL East race during the regular season. Then they ran into Phils in the postseason and none of it mattered.
• The 2022 Yankees tapered off just a bit, but still won a sizable 99 games and made it to the ALCS, though they were swept by the Astros once they got there.
• Gabe Kapler's 2021 Giants had the best record in baseball? Yeah, it was a weird year in that regard. Almost everything went right for San Francisco up until they lost to the Dodgers in the NLDS.
• The 2020 Dodgers finished 43-17 and won the bubble World Series. It was the COVID year, everything was bizarre, and the perennially-choking LA never actually had time to because there were only 60 regular season games.
• The 2019 Dodgers still finished with the best record in the NL at 106-56, but the Astros had them beaten by a game at 107-55 by season's end. Both would fall to the Wild Card, and eventual World Champion, Nationals in the postseason, though, as Washington got hot at just the right time to make a run.
• The 2018 Red Sox just tore right through everyone that season. They were really good.
• The 2017 Dodgers stayed at the top of the majors all year long, but lost to the *Astros is seven games in a now very controversial World Series.
• The 2016 Giants, at the time, were still riding on that infamous even year streak and made it back to the postseason as a Wild Card. They shutout the Mets in the old one-game Wild Card format, but then got put away in the NLDS by a Cubs team on a mission – the one that would go on to claim baseball's best record at 108-53, and eventually, win the World Series.
• The 2015 Cardinals stayed the course and won 100 games to take what was a competitive NL Central – the Cubs and Pirates were both Wild Cards behind them – but it meant little for them in the postseason when a breakout Chicago team took them down in the NLDS, 3-1.
• Moneyball still had some life in it by 2014, but it ended in typical Moneyball fashion despite the Athletics' position at the break. They finished 88-74 to take an AL Wild Card spot, then dipped from the postseason immediately after losing to the Royals in the old one-game playoff.
MORE: 10 bold predictions for the Phillies' second half
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