March 25, 2025
Kim Klement Neitzel/Imagn Images
Are Bryce Harper and the Phillies still World Series contenders?
The Phillies are still fighting to contend, but the landscape is changing.
They're another year older, they're not catching anyone in baseball by surprise anymore, and big signings and development breakthroughs elsewhere are only making the road to October that much tougher to travel.
The Phillies are still after a World Series, but after three straight years of falling short, does 2025 still present a good chance?
Here are our predictions for this season...
Nick Tricome: Yes. They're built to make it back again.
Adam Aaronson: Yes, but I do not think it is an absolutely lock the way it felt last season. The National League is good and it is deep -- the Phillies do not only have to worry about the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets in their own division, but three very good teams in the NL West, too.
Shamus Clancy: By the skin of their teeth.
Evan Macy: Yes, with six spots available in the NL, they'll definitely earn one of them.
Nick: I'll go 93 this year.
Adam: Somewhere in the ballpark of 90 wins feels like the sweet spot for me this year; I will go with 88-74.
Shamus: Let's say 89.
Evan: I think some regression and better NL East competition relegates them to 89 and a Wild Card spot.
Nick: I'm going to say the Phillies, but barely. I think the Braves will come back with a bit of a vengeance here, but I don't know if Chris Sale's 2024 is sustainable, I also don't know how many ACL tears Ronald Acuña Jr. can keep coming back from, and Spencer Strider coming back from UCL surgery will probably need time learning how to throw with that. Those are the Braves' main advantages over the Phillies, but if they don't have them, there shouldn't be anything the Phillies can't answer with.
The Mets, they did get the Phillies last year in the postseason, but they had a whole lot go right for them at the right time, and even with Juan Soto, it would be textbook Mets for them to fumble all that momentum on the follow-up – and with all that money tied up. I'm just not fully convinced that the Mets are here to stay yet, and can see a scenario where they crash back down to earth.
Adam: None of the Phillies, Mets or Braves would surprise me, but I will go with Atlanta, with the eventual returns of Ronald Acuńa Jr. and Spencer Strider set to bolster their lineup and rotation. Losing Max Fried will hurt, but Spencer Schwellenbach looks like the latest in a long line of terrific Braves starting pitchers. The Mets' pitching situation is to some degree shaky by design, as they have resisted making investments too significant in arms to date. The top of their lineup will be dangerous; the bottom of it is questionable.
While the Washington Nationals are not division contenders this season, the Phillies' opponents on Opening Day are building a strong nucleus of young players that is worth a mention. If the Nationals were at least in the mix at some point in the summer I would not be surprised, but James Wood and co. seem more dangerous in 2026 and beyond.
Shamus: Steve Cohen went out and bought himself a divisional crown this offseason. Mets fans should be elated.
Evan: I think the Braves win the NL East — they're just really good and when healthy potentially better than the Phillies. I also think the Phillies are going to be extremely mindful of October and their aging roster. They will do enough to punch a ticket, but they will also be prioritizing health which could mean days off and schedule losses throughout the season. As long as they're raring to go in October, however, none of the seeding stuff matters.
Nick: No. See above. My hunch is the Mets crash back down to earth. The Phillies and Braves both make the postseason, but with the Braves having lost a bit of an edge from age and just too much injury.
Adam: Yes. I believe all three of the Phillies, Braves and Mets will earn chances to play in October. Perhaps the Mets' talent in the present day does not quite match the excitement surrounding them, but there is a lot of talent there, particularly with Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto leading the charge.
Shamus: Yes, it's a stacked division. I have the Braves and Phils getting to the playoffs as well.
Evan: I think the NL West has to have one of them. The Dodgers will probably win 100 games and their division, but the Padres and Diamondbacks should be in the 90-win range. I also think the Mets are just not allowed to have nice things and they'll fall short.
Nick: I really want to see if Bryson Stott bounces back from the nerve injury he endured most of last season, and to what extent. If he can swing the bat steadily and get on base a lot for a lineup filled with power, that could make a huge difference.
There's Andrew Painter watch, too. We'll definitely be on that as we start to push later and later into the summer.
Adam: Cristopher Sánchez. Most Spring Training developments are not all that intriguing to me, but Sánchez's significant uptick in velocity and quality of stuff this month was jaw-dropping. Zack Wheeler is this team's ace, and there is no pitcher I have more trust in taking the mound in a big game, but I find myself believing Sánchez will just keep getting better and earning a fair share of Cy Young votes, even if he trails pitchers like Wheeler, Paul Skenes and other starters in the National League with greater name recognition.
Shamus: Zack Wheeler is going to go down as an all-time great Phillie and I'm locked in whenever he'll be on the mound. As Nick said, the countdown to Andrew Painter will be a fun time, too.
Evan: If they do indeed let Trea Turner lead off, I think it could unlock another level for this offense. Imagine Schwarber's leadoff homers with two men on base? Also, Andrew Painter. So much hype. It's time to see him.
Nick: Ranger Suárez going on the IL for his back just before the start of the season has me a bit worried right now, especially considering back issues cost him time in the back half of last season, too, and that was the point where he started evening out from an excellent first half.
Adam: All of the right-handed hitters. J.T. Realmuto is a 34-year-old catcher with an enormous amount of mileage; his decline in production and availability in 2024 should be alarming. Nick Castellanos can carry an offense for a few weeks, but he can also be one of the single least valuable players in the sport for months at a time. His prolonged, free-swinging slumps are painful to watch, not aided by below-average defense in right field. Alec Bohm finally looked like the player many envisioned early on last year, then crashed back down as the season neared its end, culminating in an October demotion. Bohm will turn 29 years old in August -- at what point will he strictly be evaluated by what he has shown and not what he was once believed to be capable of? And then there is Turner, who is being paid and counted on to provide a superstar-level impact that has just not been there for more than a few weeks at a time since arriving in Philadelphia. The Phillies need Turner to avoid his multi-week disappearances, cut down on his chasing and become a greater threat on the basepaths.
Shamus: Every hitter not named Bryce or Kyle. Is it wrong to say that for a team I'm banking on making the postseason for the fourth consecutive season? Maybe! The rotation will carry them into the fall once again, but I have serious doubts about the timely hitting aspects of most of this lineup.
Evan: I'm worried about the outfield. There are so many questions there. Is Max Kepler an everyday left fielder? Will Johan Rojas keep his hot spring going into the summer? Is Brandon Marsh going to show he can hit lefties? There's potential but little confidence in this group.
Nick: I think Zack Wheeler will have another great year, but not stellar enough to be at the top of the NL Cy Young conversation; Bryce Harper will be an All-Star and be great, but not an MVP frontrunner; and I don't think Andrew Painter will debut in enough time to build up the body of work for a Rookie of the Year case.
Adam: Wheeler and Sánchez both feel like Cy Young candidates to me, while Harper could be an MVP candidate as much as anyone is a candidate in a league that features Shohei Ohtani and his eventual return to pitching. None of the other hitters in this lineup feel like players who are realistic bets to contend for an MVP, but we all know the top-end outcomes with Harper are spectacular.
Shamus: Zack Wheeler will finally get his Cy Young!
Evan: I would say yes to everything except for Rookie of the Year. The pitching staff is loaded — Cris Sánchez could make a big leap alongside Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. And then Harper, Turner, Schwarber all could be in the mix for awards if they stay healthy.
Nick: Let's say for the Orioles series at the beginning of August. They'll be home, he should be ready, the rotation will likely be in need of some depth, and he'll be postseason eligible.
Adam: Generally speaking I support pushing conservative timelines in situations like this, and the Phillies seem to operate that way, too, which compels me to say at some point in August. But it is worth noting that if the Phillies have seen Painter face major-league hitters in July, it could be very valuable in informing their trade deadline strategy. In any case, later on in the summer should be when Painter finds his way to Philadelphia.
Shamus: Friday, July 4 at home against Cincinnati.
Evan: I think it's mid July and it will be in the nick of time too — I strongly doubt these five starters stay healthy for 33 starts apiece this season.
Nick: I mean...the Dodgers. They're the defending champs, and their roster is stacked with a ton of big-money names. In a way, they unseated the Yankees as baseball's notorious spender, and they're not going to be going anywhere for a long time.
Adam: Obviously, the Dodgers, who deserve to be feared by 29 other clubs not just because they won the World Series last October, but because they got substantially better, particularly as they upgraded from a makeshift rotation with a strong bullpen to a dominant rotation... with a dominant bullpen. But people should not forget how good the Braves can be. I also expect a strong season from the Diamondbacks, whose offense should be tremendous and now have Corbin Burnes at the top of their rotation alongside local product Zac Gallen.
Shamus: The Dodgers are the obvious (and correct) answer, but the Mets should still be frightening after their NLDS win over the Fightins last fall.
Evan: The Dodgers are probably the only answer.
Nick: No. They'll have to get through the Dodgers in the postseason at some point, and I don't think they can.
Adam: No. The Dodgers feel like the obvious bet to win the National League pennant, but even in a world in which the Dodgers had not accumulated such a brilliant collection of talents, I do not find myself convicted that this Phillies team is special. This is not because of an arbitrary arc of descending playoff outcomes that many have latched onto, but the makeup of the 2025 roster itself. This team is set to field a poor outfield, a suspect bullpen which will almost certainly need reinforcements at the trade deadline, and all of its best hitters are aging. But as the Phillies proved in 2022 and the Diamondbacks proved in 2024, all you need to do is get in and the window is open.
Shamus: Let's go with another NLDS appearance with the team falling short and this offensive core being broken up.
Evan: I am really not sure. In 2022 I said no way, and they came close to winning it all. In 2023 I was more confident and they blew it in the NLCS. Last year I felt like the seas were parting in the Phillies' favor and they collapsed again. Whatever answer I give here the opposite will manifest. So I'll go with... no... they won't...
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