Under a week away from Opening Day, PhillyVoice's Phillies preview series continues on with a look at season-long over/unders for the Fightins. Here are four numbers of my own creation and my predictions on which side of the aisle the Phils will fall...
Total team home runs: 224.5
The Phillies' record for homers in a season is 224, set by the pennant-winning 2009 club. Here's a look at how that beloved squad fared:
| Player | HR total |
| Ryan Howard | 45 |
| Jayson Werth | 36 |
| Raúl Ibañez | 34 |
| Chase Utley | 31 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 21 |
The Phillies nearly broke this mark in 2023, coming just short with 220, the second-best mark in franchise history. Here's how these Phils stacked up:
| Player | HR total |
| Kyle Schwarber | 47 |
| Nick Castellanos | 29 |
| Trea Turner | 26 |
| Bryce Harper | 21 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 20 |
As for 2024, I'll say the Phillies finish a little under with 219 home runs all around. Philadelphia will certainly trade that off for more home runs in October!
UNDER.
Zack Wheeler Cy Young finish: 2.5
In 2023, Zack Wheeler finished sixth in National League Cy Young voting, sporting a 3.61 ERA while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings.
Back in 2021, Wheeler finished second in the voting with the best campaign of his career. Wheeler was damn close to winning. He and Corbin Burnes tied in first-place votes with 12. Wheeler led all MLB pitchers in WAR with 7.5 while pitching more innings and striking out more batters than anyone in the National League. Was he robbed? Perhaps! Burnes had a lower ERA and his Brewers team made the postseason.
- MORE PHILLIES
- Phillies 2024 preview: Can they win the NL East for first time in 13 years?
- Phillies 2024 preview: Bryce Harper's new role finds him as full-time first base
- Phillies 2024 preview: Rotation packs a fierce 1-2 punch
How will Wheeler perform in 2024?
He's coming off a dominant playoff run where he posted a 1.95 ERA across five games (three starts, all wins). Wheeler struck out 35 batters while walking just three. It's impossible for him to keep up that pace for an entire 162-game season (he's not Pedro Martinez!), but he's a big game picture who has the goods to finally put together a Cy Young-winning season. I'll say he finishes in the top two yet again and go so far as to predict that he wins the award outright, becoming the first Phillie since Roy Halladay in 2010 to do so.
OVER.
Mick Abel starts: 0.5
Prized prospect Mick Abel, who did not make the Fightins out of camp and will begin the season in the minors, could be the solution to the Phillies' woes in the back end of their rotation.
Abel is entering his age-22 season. He comes highly touted. Going into this year, he's the No. 64 ranked prospect by Baseball America, No. 49 by MLB.com and No. 36 by Baseball Prospectus. With a strong fastball and an array of breaking pitches, he has the ability to be at least a No. 2 starter in the majors at some point in his career. Given the uncertainty with Tajuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez, plus inevitable injuries, the Phillies' hand may be forced to give Abel a shot to keep them afloat in the playoff race.
OVER.
Phillies playoff wins over the Braves: 2.5
In my overall NL East preview earlier this week, I discussed how Atlanta is perfectly built to be a regular season juggernaut while the Phillies' streaky slugging has given them postseason success the last two falls:
This is a two-team race and considering a "race" at all may be controversial. Atlanta is a steamrolling T-1000 which can be infinitely versatile while making quick work of opponents. The Phillies, on the other hand, are a group of happy-go-lucky mashers whose goals are measured by Bud Lights drank after every playoff round victory rather than the regular season wins.
The easy prediction for the regular season is to have the Braves win their sixth-straight NL East crown. What about October though?
The Phils have eliminated Atlanta in the NLDS each of the last two postseasons, both in five games.
I can already envision Spencer Strider getting rocked for yet another massive home run in Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park.
OVER.
Disastrous BOGO Hot Dog Nights: 1.5
The Phillies, quite controversially, discontinued their beloved Dollar Dog Night promotion for this upcoming season, quasi-blaming rowdy crowds for the decision. Boo! They're instituting a "buy-one, get-one" hot dog event instead, which will happen twice in April.
News flash: people can still throw hot dogs and act like knuckleheads if they're buying two hot dogs at a time.
I have a gut feeling that this won't go over as smoothly as the organization is hoping.
OVER.
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