March 26, 2024
The Phillies are set to enter another season with high expectations, but doing so going into with mostly the same group from the year prior.
It's definitely carried them far, and has made for some unforgettable moments along the way, but they've been kept just shy of their ultimate goal and a parade down Broad Street.
Will this be the year the Phils finally see it through?
Here are the PhillyVoice sports staff's predictions on that and a whole bunch more...
Nick Tricome (staff writer): Yes. This group got them to the postseason the past two years and will again if everyone stays relatively healthy. It's just a matter of if they'll be a Wild Card again or finally win the division.
Adam Aaronson (staff writer): Yes. This one is cut-and-dry: as things currently stand, the Phillies are pretty firmly one of the three best teams in the National League. Outside of the juggernauts in Atlanta and Los Angeles, no team is as good on paper as the Phillies -- even if the Braves repeat as division winners (we'll get there momentarily), I have a hard time finding three wild card teams who will finish with better records than the Phillies.
Shamus Clancy (deputy sports editor): Yes. They're better on paper than they were in both 2022 and 2023 when they grabbed Wild Card spots and made October runs. Only four NL teams won 90 games last season. The Phillies should be right there again with a higher ceiling available, too.
Evan Macy (managing sports editor): This one is, and should be unanimous. By my measure, they're the third most talented team in the NL behind the Dodgers and Braves and they'll reach the 90-win threshold.
Nick: No. The Braves are built to win 100-plus games, and while I do think the Phils will make it much more of a battle this time around, I ultimately don't think they'll be able to keep that high of a pace.
Adam: No. While this feels like their best chance to dethrone the Braves in the regular season, for the first time in a long time, the Braves simply have such a tremendous, well-rounded roster. One could make a strong argument that the Phillies are built better for the postseason – and the last two Octobers reflect that viewpoint – but in the regular season, it is hard to bet against the well-oiled machine that Atlanta has become.
Shamus: Atlanta was a juggernaut last season offensively and while their lineup is stuffed with stars, regression has to be on the table, right? Still, the Phillies' roster configuration is a team built for the postseason rather than the regular season. The Braves can have the summer and the Phillies will gladly take the fall.
Evan: I think they have a chance but gun to my head I predict they'll fall just short. But I do expect it to be more of a race this season for the reasons Shamus mentioned.
Nick: Bryce Harper will finally play in an All-Star game as a Phillie, which is crazy to realize that he hasn't yet after all these years. I think Zack Wheeler will make it, too, and I can see Nick Castellanos finding his way back. I think Alec Bohm is also going to surprise a lot of people this season and get a nod.
Adam: The Phillies may have as many All-Star-caliber players as any team in baseball on paper, but it is never that simple. Injuries happen, as do unexpected breakout seasons across the league, so I will try to be modest here. Zack Wheeler has been one of the few best starting pitchers in baseball since arriving in Philadelphia, yet only was named an All-Star in 2021. Let's pencil him in. Bryce Harper is certainly facing difficult competition at first base in Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, among others, but his tremendous bat and significant popularity lead me to believe he will head to the All-Star Game for the second time since joining the Phillies. If Trea Turner is his typical self for the vast majority of the season, which should be expected at this juncture, he is likely a shoe-in, at least as a reserve. Those are three names, and the Phillies have not sent more than three players to the All-Star Game since they sent five in 2011. But I'll add in JT Realmuto, who figures to be among the best catchers in baseball, per the usual, and Jose Alvarado, who has more than enough ability to be named an All-Star for the first time if he stays healthy.
Shamus: Three All-Stars. Bryce Harper gets the starting nod at first base. Trea Turner builds off his post-standing ovation streak and postseason highs for his first All-Star appearance as a Phillie. Turning to the rotation, Zack Wheeler will make the Summer Classic as he contends for the NL Cy Young Award.
Evan: I'm going to go with three but I am not entirely set on which. Harper is too popular not to make it when healthy from the fan vote. I think one of the middle infielders, either Turner or Bryson Stott. And then I also think one of their starters, either Aaron Nola or Wheeler will get the third nod.
Nick: Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm. Barring the COVID season for Bohm, they've each gotten better with each passing season they've been here, and I really want to see how far they can go.
Adam: Most of the players on the Phillies are known commodities at this point. One guy I will be watching extremely closely is Cristopher Sánchez, who in 2023 went from an unreliable depth arm to starting a game in the NLCS. Sanchez's evolution from a hard thrower with poor command to a pure strike thrower was remarkable to watch unfold, and his development of a lethal changeup made him outstanding at times during the summer. Reports out of Clearwater suggest that he is attempting to tack on some extra velocity. If he can do that without sacrificing command, he will be yet another mainstay in this team's starting rotation.
Shamus: Is Zack Wheeler the most underrated player in Philly sports right now? As written above, a Cy Young campaign feels in the cards and the righty could be poised for the best pitching season in Philadelphia since the heights of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Wheeler may go down as the best free agent signing in franchise history. A Cy Young Award and perhaps a return to the World Series could solidify that.
Evan: Give me a full season of Bryce Harper, 35 homers, 110 RBI and an MVP campaign, please.
Nick: Yes. They'll get it done at some point this season and it will be out of the way. There's a larger conversation to have about Scott Boras, his influence over the game, and the idea of altering contracts in baseball, but when it comes to Harper's situation with this, I don't think it's as big of a deal as some might make it out to be. Yes, the idea of extending and adding more to a 13-year, $330 million deal seems absurd at face value. But I see it this way: Since signing that contract in 2019, Bryce Harper has proven himself one of the absolute best players in baseball and that price tag an absolute bargain relative to the current market. Shohei Ohtani got $700 million this offseason from the Dodgers. Manny Machado pivoted into a new 11-year, $350 million contract last winter with the Padres, Aaron Judge is making $360 million with the Yankees, and Mike Trout $426.5 million with the Angels. In value, I'd argue that Harper should be somewhere in the middle of that group, and I don't think it would take much to do it. In the end, I think what will happen is the Phillies will tack on 3-4 more years and $70 million to get the total value of the deal up to $400 million. At this point, the length of the contract really isn't a concern. The Phillies are trying to win right now, and while they realistically don't have to do anything, they're going to want to keep their best player happy to do that.
Adam: Probably not. I understand why Harper and agent Scott Boras would love to rip up his original 13-year, $330 million contract. And I know it is not this simple, but quite frankly, the Phillies have zero strategic incentive to do that. I could see a few years being tacked onto the end of his current deal as some sort of symbolic gesture down the line, but I would be surprised by any sort of significant alterations to Harper's deal.
Shamus: I lean no before the 2024 campaign. If Harper pulls off a year akin to 2022 where he wins NLCS MVP and maybe even World Series MVP though? That'll get locked up next winter.
Evan: I know he is underpaid compared to the open market — but he signed a 13-year deal. He didn't have to. And he knew that his yearly pay would be lower and lower on the relative scale as inflation and more money comes into baseball. I am kind of annoyed by the premise. He had no opt outs in the contract either, he signed a pact and the Phillies have no obligation to extend him into his 40s — at least not this soon.
Nick: I think Zack Wheeler is going to come in with the best stuff of his career and be leading that conversation in the NL all summer.
Adam: Barring an injury, it is hard to imagine he won't be. Wheeler is one of the game's most effective and consistent starting pitchers, and he figures to have a much better defense behind him than he had in any of his prior seasons with the Phillies. I would still argue that Wheeler should have won the award in 2021, when he led National League pitchers in innings, strikeouts and Wins Above Replacement. Maybe after two straight dominant playoff runs, this will be the year in which his value is recognized by the masses.
Shamus: I'll reiterate it... yes.
Evan: Wheeler's Cy Young votes since becoming a Phillie:
| Season | WAR (NL Rank) | Place |
| 2020 | 2.8 (3rd) | 15th |
| 2021 | 7.5 (1st) | 2nd |
| 2022 | 5.0 (7th) | — |
| 2023 | 4.3 (4th) | 6th |
Nick: Entering a season finally healthy and clearly as a first baseman? Absolutely.
Adam: Harper could win the award unanimously and I would not be remotely surprised. He creates the loftiest of expectations, and somehow finds ways to shatter them. So, yes, I am sure he will be a candidate once again. But will he win his third MVP? He is going to be playing the least valuable defensive position at first base, he has missed nearly 100 games over the last two seasons and in addition to competing against reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., reigning American League MVP Shohei Ohtani will be in the running as well -- that's without focusing on two of Ohtani's teammates in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. So, yes, Harper will be in the running, but taking home another trophy may be an uphill battle.
Shamus: The aura of the Los Angeles Dodgers' mega-stars will keep Harper from hoisting the hardware, but he'll have, at minimum, a top-seven finish.
Evan: There is a ton of competition for NL MVP and I think a full season of Harper will result in him being in the mix. I don't know if he'll win it though.
Nick: Horribly.
Adam: By the looks of my Twitter timeline, not well at all! I am not sure what sort of reaction the Phillies expected to receive when this news broke, but safe to say they have been in for a rude awakening.
Shamus: It'll be a one-and-done promotion and be spun into something wholly different in 2025.
Evan: Some notes for the Phillies PR staff. Don't blame the fans. Need to 86 your dollar dog nights? Blame inflation. Say that the team has become so popular the promotion is no longer necessary to sell tickets. Anything but blaming the fans themselves. How hard is this to understand?
Nick: He'll have to step out of the box to salute the crowd, for sure. And if he ends up homering, I do wonder if he'll get the curtain call like Chase Utley did when he came back as a Dodger.
Adam: Not only should the ovation for Hoskins be warm and lengthy, it should last there entire time the Milwaukee Brewers are in Philadelphia. Play his walkup music and have Dan Baker excitedly introduce him. Gift him a painting of the Bat Spike. Pitching change? Put a Hoskins highlight on the scoreboard. Will they go to these lengths? Certainly not. But Hoskins' importance to this era of Phillies baseball cannot be overstated. His inconsistencies were maddening, but they were also perfectly representative of the organization he was part of for nearly a decade.
Shamus: Show his 2022 NLDS bat slam ahead of the game, give him a standing O before his first at-bat and then Phillies fans should lock in.
Evan: Yeah I think he should be applauded long enough to step out of the box for a hat tip, and then go on with the game.
Nick: By the All-Star break, the new Nike uniforms will have caused enough problems and drawn enough complaints that the old uniform templates will be put back into commission returning from them. Those things are awful.
Adam: Bold predictions are typically of the positive variety, so allow me to be my naturally pessimistic self with this one: by the end of the season, if not the trade deadline, there will be serious doubts about Alec Bohm being a long-term fixture in Philadelphia. I am rooting for Bohm. But the trade deadline will be a few days before his 28th birthday, and he is still considerably below-average defensively at third base (despite making major strides after his infamous three-error game in April of 2022), first base will now permanently be occupied by Harper, and the power has never materialized.
Bohm turning into a well-rounded power hitter in 2024 would be tremendous, but how many times can the Phillies settle for offensive production from Bohm that is essentially league-average before deciding he will not quite live up to the hype? Since his sensational rookie campaign in the shortened 2020 season (only a 44-game sample), he has only had one season with an above-average hitting season: according to FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus metric, he was five percent better at the plate than the average hitter in 2023. That figure is both underwhelming and by far his best over his three full seasons in the majors. Bohm will almost certainly never be a positive defender at third base -- if he is never more than very-slightly-above-average at the plate, the Phillies will realize they can do better.
Shamus: The Phillies will have three Gold Glove winners in Johan Rojas, Bryson Stott and Zack Wheeler. One additional prediction is that Whit Merrifield has a game-winning hit in one playoff game.
Evan: I think the Phillies will be very active at the trade deadline. They abstained from the juicy Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Josh Hader free agency opportunities. They wanted to stick with the talent that carried them to two deep postseason runs in a row. But they should be at the top of the trade market for an elite third starter or closer come July and I think it'll help them make a push for the NL East.
Nick: Yes.
Adam: I absolutely believe that the Phillies have a roster capable of winning another pennant. But it is hard to pick them against a field that includes the aforementioned Braves and Dodgers. Even while acknowledging that the Phillies dismantled the Braves in the NLDS two years in a row and the Dodgers have experienced their fair share of postseason collapses, the Phillies' NLCS collapse in 2023 serves as a reminder that a lot of crazy things happen in October.
Shamus: Let's ride. For the second time in three seasons, the Phillies will be in the World Series behind clutch postseason pitching from Zack Wheeler and clutch moments from their star-powered lineup.
Evan: I fear the Dodgers and only the Dodgers. If they have to play a seven-game series against that lineup it might be tough. Then again, if they have a healthy pitching staff with the postseason experience and resumes that Nola and Wheeler have, they could pull it off. A very non-confident yes.
Nick: Also yes.
Adam: Hopefully in about seven months from now we can look back at this and laugh at my foolishness. But given the sheer difficulty of making a deep postseason run, I will once again say no.
Shamus: No. In a redux of 2009, I'll say the Yankees top the Fightins.
Evan: Both of the Phillies previous (and modern era) stanzas of competitiveness resulted in a World Series win. The teams of the late 70s and 80s led by Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt won a crown. The 2006-12 teams led by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins won one too. (The 1993 team was a flash in the pan) I feel like this team is going to win at least one. They're built to compete for a few more seasons at the highest level, and the rosters have been built deliberately and expertly. I don't know if it'll be in 2024 or 2025 or 2026, but they get one. Maybe it's next October?
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