Dave McCormick wins U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, but a recount is likely

Dave McCormick is the projected winner of the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania. 

The Republican former hedge fund CEO has prevailed over Sen. Bob Casey in a competitive election, the Associated Press declared Thursday afternoon. McCormick edged out the incumbent Democrat with 49% of the vote to Casey's 48.5%. Roughly 99% of all ballots have been counted as of 4:30 p.m.

The race had remained too close to call for nearly two days, and is likely to trigger a recount. Pennsylvania automatically recounts the vote when the margin of victory is 0.5% or less, unless the losing candidate opts out. All vote tallies are considered unofficial until certified by state officials. 

Casey has not conceded the race.

"As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots," campaign spokesperson Maddie McDaniel said in a statement. "This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian's voice is heard."

McCormick, a Bloomsburg, Columbia County, native, has never held elected office. He ran for Pennsylvania's open seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022, losing the Republican nomination to Dr. Mehmet Oz. John Fetterman ultimately won that race. 

McCormick's victory is a boon for Republicans, who will control the U.S. Senate in 2025. The GOP also flipped seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. With McCormick's win, the party now has a 53-member majority. 

The Democratic Party had only managed to hold onto its current 51-49 edge in the Senate with the help of the chamber's four independents, who caucus with their Democratic colleagues. 

McCormick pursued a familiar Republican campaign strategy of anti-immigrant rhetoric in this election. He blamed overdose deaths on the "wide open" border and decried government benefits to "illegals" in attack ads that aired across Pennsylvania. Casey, meanwhile, campaigned on promises to fight inflation and uphold reproductive rights, despite his conservative leanings on abortion earlier in his career. 

The Scranton native served three terms in the U.S. Senate.

CORRECTION: Dave McCormick's hometown was misidentified because of a typo. It has been corrected to Bloomsburg, Columbia County.

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