September 20, 2019
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, thephillygodfather.com.
What
is the line telling you: Oddsmakers offshore originally opened the Eagles
as 7-point home favorites over the Detroit Lions, with the combined total set at
49.5. With all the injuries the Eagles have suffered, it didn't take long for
the sharp money to send out purchase orders on the road dog Detroit Lions
here at that key number of plus-7. This line plummeted in the market and
as of right now you can lay six points at even money on Philly at some of the sharper
offshore books and in Vegas.
We also witnessed sharp money bury the under,
which forced bookmakers to adjust their line on the total a whopping 4 points
to where it currently sits at 45.5 offshore at Bet Cris, while the rest of
the market is painted 46 across your screen.
It's not easy being an Eagles fan and betting against your home team, but with 25% of the players on this Eagles roster banged up, that's exactly what we did. The Lions do just enough here to stay within the Vegas spread. Detroit’s defense is good enough to limit scoring opportunities against this Eagles team, who are missing some of their most dangerous and explosive weapons on offense.
Bottom line: Take the Lions and the under at the current price.
What
is the line telling you: Oddsmakers
opened up the high-flying 2-0 Chiefs as 5-point home favorites over the 2-0
Baltimore Ravens with the combined total set at 51.5. We saw a little bit of market
manipulation early in the week that pushed the line to as high as Chiefs minus-7,
before the sharp money attacked the screen and sent out massive buy orders on
the road dog Ravens at plus-7. The total also skyrocketed to as high as 55.5 on
Tuesday and that's when the wiseguys buried the under, which forced the books
to re-adjust their price back down to 52 where it currently sits.
Weather is supposed to be rough in this one with winds up to 17-20 MPH and rain in the forecast. If the weather ends up being as rough as forecasted, it will definitely benefit the Ravens, who are the better running team. They're also the better defensive squad, so any help Mother Nature can give them will definitely show up on the scoreboard.
The Chiefs have looked unstoppable this year winning and covering the spread in both games this season, so we stayed away from betting the side here.
Bottom line: Go under at the current price of 52.
What is the line telling you: It seems like the Rams have the cure for the “Super Bowl Hangover” curse and have started the season 2-0 — and 2-0 against the closing Vegas spread. This week, the oddsmakers implemented the Rams initially as small 2.5-point favorites over the Browns, with the total set at 51. There was some early money that attacked the screen on the Rams, which forced books to move this line to that key number of 3, but tread lightly if you like the road favorite here. The bigger move has been on the under full game and first half.
A wise man once said anytime you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect. As of right now, over 90% of all tickets punched offshore and in Vegas have been on the Rams.
Bottom line: Take the under 24 first half, take the under 47.5 full game and take Browns plus-3.5.
Betting lines are subject to change.
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
