December 09, 2020
It's only been a little over a day since word came down from the Eagles that they were making a change at quarterback, opting to bench then guy they just committed over $100 million to last year in favor of Heisman finalist and second-round pick Jalen Hurts.
The reason for the move are obvious, with Carson Wentz playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL for what is now 75% of the season and the team sitting near the bottom of the NFC East and whatever slim, albeit misguided, playoff hopes on the brink of turning to none. Staring at a potential Top 5 pick in next year's draft, the Eagles are smart to make this change now, allowing them to get a look at what they have in Hurts while allowing Wentz to step back and hit the reset button, with the hope being that he's able to return to the player we've seen the past three years rather than the 2020 version.
Will the Eagles stick with Hurts beyond 2020? Will the give Wentz another try in 2021, perhaps with a different coach? Or will they be starting someone else entirely at quarterback next season? These are just the broad questions, and each answer only creates a slew of new questions, like what happens to the player (or players) who doesn't earn the starting job in 2020 and if they go in a different direction, will that new quarterback come from the draft or elsewhere?
But for today's edition of What They're Saying, with Hurts currently the Eagles starting quarterback, we'll look at one specific question regarding the team's newest backup and former second-overall pick. If the team sticks with Hurts — or opts to go in a completely different direction — what happens to Wentz and that massive contract? Does he become the most expensive backup of all time? Does he get traded to a contender and potentially enact his revenge of the Birds? Or will the Eagles come up with some other plan for him?
The one thing we know for sure, whether or not he's on this roster in 2021, his salary cap hit will be. And in a year in which the Eagles are in desperate need of cap relief, there's only one really option that helps the team, and that's Wentz returning to form and retaking the starting job. But given what we've seen this season, that doesn't seem like the most likely outcome.
A trade, on the other hand, would at least give the Eagles something in return, even if it's nowhere near the price you spent to move up and draft Wentz (not to mention the price you'll be continuing to pay him to play elsewhere). But hey, it's better than nothing.
If the Eagles do decide to trade Wentz — again, this won't be an easy decision and will still leave the Eagles with a sizable portion of their cap space committed to a player who is no longer on the roster — what could they possibly get in return? And who would the top potential suitors be?
Let's take a look...
According to CBS Sports' Cody Benjamin, the Eagles are "more likely than not" going to attempt to trade Carson Wentz. Furthermore, he's being told it's "possible but not likely" that the team will keep Wentz and try to right the ship. That's wild considering they don't yet know what they actually have in Jalen Hurts — they'll find a lot more out about that over the final four weeks of the season.
Now that Hurts has also been handed at least one start (and, likely, the rest of the season), it's going to be hard to put the genie back in the bottle. Asked this week what Philly will do after the season, one NFL source told CBS Sports it's more likely than not the Eagles will try to trade Wentz. The source, who is familiar with Eagles management, added that it's "possible but not likely" the team will view Wentz as salvageable, and that Wentz's "lack of consistency and injury history make him expendable."
Former Eagle Chris Long, who counts both Wentz and Foles as close friends after their 2017 title run together, probably hit the nail on the head when he speculated on his Green Light podcast this week that Wentz and Pederson are no longer married now that Hurts has taken over. In Long's mind, the final four games of 2020 will likely allow higher-ups (e.g. owner Jeffrey Lurie, or perhaps even general manager Howie Roseman) to determine whether this lost season was primarily due to Wentz or Doug, and then sever ties with at least one of them. In other words, if Pederson's team suddenly comes alive with the rookie QB, management can justify -- fairly or not -- blaming 2020 on Wentz and proceeding accordingly. If Hurts also fails to elevate the offense, management can easier justify rebooting the coaching staff and trying to rebuild around Wentz. [CBS Sports]
So, if the Eagles do attempt to trade Wentz, there should be more than a few suitors despite his struggles in 2020. A new system with a new coach might be just what the former MVP candidate needs to regain form. And what better place to do that than under Bill Belichick in New England.
New England Patriots
The sight of Wentz suiting up for the team his old team beat in the Super Bowl (while he was forced to watch from the sidelines) would be wild. But the connection is logical. Cam Newton may or may not be back as a short-term solution. Bill Belichick is a noted fan of Wentz's skill set. The Pats are still looking for a longer-term option post-Tom Brady. They're arguably more willing than any team to take a swing on big-name castoffs. And the Eagles have been notorious trading partners with New England. This move would allow the Pats to bet on Wentz's upside but potentially still return to contention sooner rather than later. [CBS Sports]
Is there a more Philly way for this story to end than with Wentz going to a hated rival and once again playing like the guy Eagles fans thought was going to be their starting quarterback for the entire next decade?
Over at The Athletic, Eagles beat writer Bo Wulf took a look at the cost of trading Wentz. And it's a lot. Obviously they're not going to just release him, which would cost them a whopping $60 million against the cap and would give them nothing in return. But if they can trade him quickly once the 2021 league year starts, they can at least minimize that damage.
Moving on from Wentz this offseason would be costly but not impossible. Releasing him outright is a non-starter because it would result in a full cap hit of nearly $60 million for a team already desperate for cap room. Releasing him with a post-June 1 designation would allow the Eagles to spread out the cap hit more but makes little sense from a roster construction standpoint — they’d be better off hoping he regains his form.
The one reasonable option the Eagles have is to trade Wentz before the third day of the new league year (March 19; the league year starts March 17). On that day, $15 million of Wentz’s 2022 contract becomes guaranteed. If the Eagles trade him before then, they would avoid that payment and be out from under all future guarantees. Bitterly, they would still have to eat $34 million of dead money, which is a whole lot of sunk cost but not franchise-crippling if they determine Wentz is beyond saving or they simply have a better option. [The Athletic]
Bo also took a look at a few potential trade destinations as well (that's going to be a common theme here). Moreover, he reached out to his counterparts in these other cities to get the inside scoop on what that rival GM might be thinking if he picks up his phone and Howie Roseman is on the other line. In this case, the guy answering Roseman's call might know just a tad bit more about quarterbacking than the Eagles general manager.
Denver Broncos
The profile: John Elway has been through five quarterbacks in five seasons since Peyton Manning’s retirement, so why not make it six? Denver has a top-10 defense and the worst offense in football, according to DVOA, but it also has the playmakers on offense who could make for a quick turnaround. And Wentz, 6-foot-5, is tall enough for Elway’s liking. Drew Lock, by the way, is an important reminder about the likely outcome for second-round quarterbacks such as Hurts.
Inside scoop: “The Broncos still have to decide whether Lock will be their quarterback for the 2021 season. At the very least, Denver should probably be looking at ways to create real competition for the 2019 second-round pick. They certainly didn’t do that last offseason, when they signed a relatively inexperienced backup in Jeff Driskel. But I don’t see Elway paying that kind of a cost for competition. The Broncos have not shown in recent years that they can help a young quarterback fix the kind of issues Wentz is dealing with now. I’m not sure how the Broncos could stomach the kind of regression they have seen from Lock this season, only to change course in favor of a quarterback who is also trending the wrong way. If the Broncos do end up spending that kind of money on a quarterback this offseason, it will be because the Lions decided to tear it all down and part ways with Stafford, putting Elway in position to once again pursue a marquee veteran.” — Nick Kosmider [The Athletic]
The Broncos are considered the favorite by most, but they were at least mentioned by pretty much everyone listing potential trade partners for Wentz and the Eagles.
As Eliot Shorr-Parks points out, Carson Wentz will likely be far and away the most sought after QB on the market this offseason. Aside from Dak Prescott, who is coming off a major injury and will likely be back with Dallas next season anyway, the top options include Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. If a team believes Wentz is salvageable, then they likely view him as a better option than either of those two.
If the Eagles can get two-or-three teams seriously in on Wentz, the bidding will begin, and they should be able to net a first-or-second round pick for him. Teams that will want Wentz are win-now teams that expect to contend with him. Not teams picking in the top 10 that are rebuilding. Teams trying to win now and needing a quarterback to do so do some crazy things, including trading a first-round pick for Sam Bradford.
Get those teams bidding against each other, and one bad year in 2020 likely won’t impact Wentz’s value as much as everyone thinks. Wentz will not be a $128 million dollar backup in the eyes of another team. He will be a healthy, 28-year old former No. 2 pick -- that, remember almost won the MVP in 2017! -- on a pretty reasonable two-year deal, with team control beyond that.
That makes Wentz a valuable trade piece, not the albatross many make him out to be. [94 WIP]
The problem here is that the Eagles would have all the incentive in the world to trade Wentz quickly, before that March 19 deadline when his $15 million payment would be due. It's hard to get a real bidding war going in a couple of days — and if the Eagles clean house, then they could have a brand new GM working the phones. See how tricky this is going to be?
Anyway, one of the teams Eliot mentions in addition to the Broncos, Patriots and others is the San Francisco 49ers, a run-heavy offense that could help get Wentz quickly back on track.
San Francisco 49ers: $22 million in projected cap space
It seems unlikely that Jimmy Garoppolo will be back in San Francisco, considering the 49ers would save $22.4 million by moving on from him this offseason. The 49ers could essentially swap Garoppolo for Wentz. Kyle Shanahan might be the best offensive head coach in the NFL right now, and if any head coach can scheme around Wentz’s weaknesses, it is him. After a down year, the 49ers could be right back to contending with Wentz. [94 WIP]
Over at NBC Sport Philadelphia, old friend Adam Herman took a look at six teams that could be potential landing spots for Wentz. And this one was certainly interesting considering they've already started the house-cleaning in Detroit. At least in that respect, they're ahead of the Eagles.
Sending any player to the Lions feels a little mean, because that organization has no discernable direction. And this idea is contingent on a pretty big decision for the Lions franchise, and for one veteran QB.
But after parting ways with head coach Matt Patricia this season, and with 33-year-old Matthew Stafford maybe looking to finally head elsewhere in search of a chance to win a Super Bowl before his career ends, there could be a chance for a clean slate in Detroit. New head coach, new quarterback, new era.
Wentz would give the Lions, who won't finish with a bad enough record for a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft, a household name for fans to be relatively excited about. Trading Stafford as a post-6/1 trade would save the Lions $20 million against the 2021 cap, if Detroit could find a partner amenable to their franchise QB's aspirations (hello, Indianapolis) and would help the Lions afford bringing in Wentz, who could also restructure his deal. [NBC Sports]
And finally, a look at the favorite. Pretty much everyone who has speculated about a Wentz trade has brought up the Colts, who have a ton of cap space, a quarterback on an expiring one-year deal, and a head coach who arguably got more out of Wentz when they were together than any other coach has been able to.
Maybe he needs a fresh start. Maybe he could get that in a place where his 2017 offensive coordinator, Frank Reich, is the head coach.
With Reich running he offense, Wentz became the MVP favorite, before he suffered a torn ACL three years ago this week. The Colts signed Philip Rivers, who turns 39 today, to a one-year, $25 million deal. They’ll have to decide on a quarterback for 2021. Could Wentz be the guy?
The Eagles likely wouldn’t get much for Wentz in trade, but they also wouldn’t have to do a Brock Osweiler hot potato trade to get Wentz off the books. [ProFootballTalk]
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