January 25, 2022
Let’s hope a week is enough time to recover from one of the most amazing set of playoff games in recent history.
The Bills vs. Chiefs game on its own will go down as one of the all-time best non-Super Bowl playoff games. The improbable weekend that was saw both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers ousted from the postseason. We are down to the final four teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, but only one team stands out when it comes to their odds to win it all.
We will look at both conference championship games this weekend as we have the trilogy between the Rams and Niners, and the improbable Bengals in Kansas City. We’ve found great value in playing a side, total, and even a couple of player props. We want you to get in on these plays ahead of time as we anticipate line movement throughout the week. The playoffs have always been about momentum and all four teams got in by the skin of their teeth.
Let’s start with the game itself and what side we should bet – which is the Bengals at +7 points. The Chiefs win football games at home in January, it’s what they do. They’ve also struggled to cover larger numbers at Arrowhead stadium. While the Chiefs have won eight straight at home, the Bengals are riding a six-game cover streak. That combination makes me lean towards Cincy – as they have the firepower to at least keep up with the Chiefs. Remember, we aren’t talking about can the Bengals win this game, but do they have enough to stay within a touchdown – at the very least a later score to push or cover. Cincinnati is a second half cover machine, winning the second half outright in eight of their last nine games – a key stat in any backdoor cover scenario. A touchdown is a lot to cover this late in the season so we will roll with the Bengals.
The total is high because we just saw the Chiefs and Bills light up the scoreboard – combined with the Bengals ability to do the same. Kansas City’s offense is clearly back, as is their concerns about the defense. The last seven games for KC have gone over the point total – which is why we have to go over 54.5 points. The Bengals will do their part and we should see plenty of points.
PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 285.5 PASSING YARDS (-110)
This correlates with going over the point total as we know the Chiefs can take huge chunks out of opposing defenses. The recent game against Buffalo shows just how fast Mahomes can get the ball down the field, no matter if it’s getting up early or mounting a comeback. KC won’t run their way to 30+ points, and both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce looked pretty sharp on Sunday.
JAMAR CHASE ANYTIME TD (+100)
Chase should get plenty of scoring chances as the Bengals will be throwing most of the day. There is big play capability every time he steps on the field, but we should expect the Bengals offense to get creative in getting him the ball as much as possible. The Chiefs may be down two key players in their secondary — Tyrann Mathieu is in the concussion protocol and Rashad Fenton who hasn’t played yet in the playoffs. That would be a huge boost to Chase getting into the end zone.
When we look at betting a side in this game it’s clear who the data favors, not to mention recent history. The Niners have won six straight games against the Rams, including the season sweep capped off by an OT thriller just to make the playoffs. San Francisco isn’t just running a nice little streak against the Rams; they are also covering games. The Niners are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games – adding even more pressure on the Rams. It’s hard to ignore all of the firepower on both sides of the ball for L.A. – especially how Aaron Donald wreaked havoc against the Bucs. The playoffs are a different animal, and it may simply come down to a mistake. The Niners have some sort of hold over Sean McVay and his football team, so it’s safe to take the points here with San Fran. We also expect a close game between division rivals so we gain an extra advantage with the hook above a key number.
Six of the last seven NFC Championship games have seen the over cover – but be warned, the books adjust. Unlike a win streak or even a cover streak, totals are easier for the books to get ahead of with any trends. Meaning, playoff totals adjust not only on matchups but in response to recent trends. It’s more important to look at the matchup rather than piling on this trend. The Niners have the 6th ranked pass defense and the league’s 7th best rush defense. The Rams have the NFL’s 6th best rush defense but do give up some passing yards. Three of the four main defensive rankings for these teams are in the top-10, which is hard to ignore. Go under the point total at 46.5.
CAM AKERS UNDER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
This line is way too high at the moment, and we should aggressively attack the under. Akers struggled to get 55 yards in the divisional round. He’s averaging 2.5 yards on 41 attempts in the playoffs, so he’s getting 20 carries per-game but it’s not amounting to much. The Niners also have a ridiculously tough defense against the run – making this even more of a slam.
DEEBO SAMUEL UNDER 42.5 RUSHING YARDS (-114)
First, we should note that Samuel is still dealing with a knee injury after taking a helmet to it last week in Los Angeles. He should be good enough to play but it’s not an easy matchup to run against the Rams. San Francisco may get RB Jeff Wilson back which adds another body in the backfield with Eli Mitchell. While Samuel is a dual-threat and carried the ball ten times last week, he’s better off being vertical and stretching the field against a weaker Rams secondary. It won’t take long for the Niners to realize that and shift him away from the run game. That’s why we want to jump on this number now before it drops.
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