April 13, 2022
Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice
PHILADELPHIA - DECEMBER 26: Head coach Nick Sirianni of the Philadelphia Eagles walks onto the field before the game against the New York Giants at Lincoln Financial Field on December 26, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
More than any award in the NFL, Coach of the Year comes down to narrative. That's how Bill Belichick, the best coach in the history of the sport, has won Coach of the Year just three times in his two-plus decades in New England. It results in Andy Reid, one of the greatest offensive minds ever, having the same amount of awards as canned Bears coach Matt Nagy.
Going off that, here are the way-too-early Coach of the Year odds for the 2022 season via betonline.ag:
1. Josh McDaniels (Raiders): 12/1
t2. Brandon Staley (Chargers): 14/1
t2. Nathaniel Hackett (Broncos): 14/1
t4. Kevin O'Connell (Vikings): 16/1
t4. Mike McDaniel (Dolphins): 16/1
t4. Nick Sirianni (Eagles): 16/1
t7. Brian Daboll (Giants): 18/1
t7. Doug Pederson (Jaguars): 18/1
t7. Kevin Stefanski (Browns): 18/1
t7. Kyle Shanahan (49ers): 18/1
t11. Frank Reich (Colts): 20/1
t11. Matt Lafleur (Packers): 20/1
t11. Mike Tomlin (Steelers): 20/1
t11. Mike Vrabel (Titans): 20/1
t11. Sean McVay (Rams): 20/1
t11. Zac Taylor (Bengals): 20/1
17. Todd Bowles (Buccaneers): 22/1
t18. Andy Reid (Chiefs): 25/1
t18. Bill Belichick (Patriots): 25/1
t18. John Harbaugh (Ravens): 25/1
t18. Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals): 25/1
t18. Ron Rivera (Commanders): 25/1
t18. Sean McDermott (Bills): 25/1
t24. Matt Eberflus (Bears): 28/1
t24. Robert Saleh (Jets): 28/1
t26. Dan Campbell (Lions): 33/1
t26. Dennis Allen (Saints): 33/1
t26. Mike McCarthy (Cowboys): 33/1
t29. Lovie Smith (Texans): 40/1
t29. Matt Rhule (Panthers): 40/1
t29. Pete Carroll (Seahawks): 40/1
32. Arthur Smith (Falcons): 50/1
Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is tied for the fourth-best odds. He's an intriguing pick. After a rough, to say the least, start to the 2021 season, Sirianni completely changed the Eagles' offensive gameplan. Sirianni went full pre-WWII football, deploying a lethal rushing attack behind quarterback Jalen Hurts. Though the Birds' late-season competition was poor, teams play the games that are on their schedule and Sirianni successively navigated a storm and saw the Eagles bloom their way into a playoff appearance.
That was a good narrative! If I had a vote (why would I have a vote?), I wouldn't have voted for Sirianni, though he did deserve mention alongside Zac Taylor (who I would've voted for) and eventually winner Mike Vrabel (deserving!). That narrative especially cultivates when a coach is in their first season with a team. Three of the last five Coach of the Year recipients were new in town: Kevin Stefanski in 2020 with the Browns, Matt Nagy in 2018 with the Bears, and Sean McVay in 2017 with the Rams.
Trying to devise a narrative and taking a peek at coaches in new locales, one coach comes to mind as a good bet: Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson.
Pederson inherits a Jags team that finished with the worst record in the NFL the last two seasons. His team plays in a horrible division in the AFC South. He's ready to have 2021 first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence take a leap at QB and the team will add another premium player with the top pick in this month's draft. Going against the lowly Texans, a Colts team treading water and a Titans team ripe for regression could result in a worst-to-first campaign for Doug in Jacksonville.
Pederson won a Super Bowl with a backup quarterback. He was dismissed after one poor season in Philly after capturing the Lombardi Trophy and leading two subpar teams to the playoffs in a three-year span. A year off from coaching could've done Pederson well, leaving him recharged and ready to help another young signal-caller play like a stud.
As for a safer bet... Brandon Staley is a media darling. Getting the Chargers to the postseason in the tough-as-hell AFC West would make him a lock.
Unsurprisingly though, I'm riding with Dougie P.
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