January 07, 2025
Junfu Han/Imagn Images
Jared Goff and the Lions earned the 1 seed and an extreme advantage in the playoffs over Sam Darnold and the Vikings Sunday night.
The NFL regular season is in the books, and the seven NFC playoff teams are set. But before we look ahead to those matchups, we have one new obituary this week, the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons had a chance to win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers and a Bucs loss to the Saints. They didn't even hold up their end of the bargain, losing to the Panthers in overtime, and clinching their seventh consecutive losing season:
• 2018: 7-9
• 2019: 7-9
• 2020: 4-12
• 2021: 7-10
• 2022: 7-10
• 2023: 7-10
• 2024: 8-9
That is some elite mediocrity. They were actually favored to win the NFC South this season, partly because they were projected to have the easiest schedule in the NFL, and by a significant margin. And they still couldn't produce a winning season.
They continue to own a share of the longest playoff appearance drought in the NFC:
• 7 years each: Falcons and Panthers
• 4 years each: Bears and Saints
• 3 years: Cardinals
The Falcons had a truly bizarre offseason, signing Kirk Cousins to four-year, $180 million contract while he was still recovering from a torn Achilles. They then selected Michael Penix with the eighth overall pick in draft. Cousins had a few small pockets of promise this season, but it was mostly bad, particularly late in the season, when he had a five-game stretch in which he threw 1 TD and 9 INTs before getting benched for Penix.
The Falcons are highly likely to part with Cousins this offseason. If he is still on their roster on March 17th, a $10 million roster bonus due in 2026 will become guaranteed. Unfortunately for the Falcons, if they cut him before June 1, they will have $65 million in dead money on their 2025 books that they will be unable to spread over multiple seasons. If they trade him... LOL, nobody is trading for him.
In other words, even if Penix ends up being a good quarterback (I was underwhelmed, but whatever), they will not have the benefit of spending big on the rest of the roster around a super cheap quarterback room because of the huge hit they have coming for cutting Cousins.
And thus, they will likely continue to linger in purgatory.
7) Rams (10-7): I generally lean toward resting starters in most scenarios, but it’s nuts to me that the Rams rested starters Week 18, content to lose the 3 seed and instead be the 4 seed, thus hosting the Lions or Vikings (we now know it's the Vikings, of course) instead of the Commanders.
But beyond the Rams' first-round opponent, if they were to win in the Wild Card round and the Eagles were upset by the Packers, they would definitely have a home game in the divisional round as the 3 seed. As the 4 seed, probably not.
The Rams did beat the Vikings earlier this season, though, so maybe this is what they wanted?
Last week: 5
They've been one-and-done in their last four playoff appearances:
The 2012 season, which was Robert Griffin III's incredible rookie season, closely mirrored the Commanders' 2024 season with Jayden Daniels. Their loss to the Seahawks that season — and the ensuing organizational injury management malfeasance surrounding RG3's torn ACL — was about as devastating as it gets for a fan base. It was like, "OK, here's a little taste of fun," and then... YOINK!
The Commanders aren't really legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Everything positive that happens for this team this postseason is just gravy. They just can't have something devastating happen to Daniels and ruin all offseason enthusiasm.
Last week: 6
5) Buccaneers (10-7): This was pretty cool on Sunday:
MIKE EVANS. 1,000 YARDS ONCE AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/V4S7S8APUX
— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2025
On a side note, I hope Marshon Lattimore returns for the Commanders this week, because he and Evans have maybe the best personal feud in the NFL.
Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore have history 👀
— JayOnSC (@JayOnSC) September 19, 2022
•••
(🎥: @NFL) pic.twitter.com/yJ9gHZGl2V
4) Packers (11-6): The 2023 Packers were 9-8, and ranked 13th in DVOA. They got hot at the end of the regular season, winning three straight and eking their way into the playoffs, where they then blew out the Cowboys on the road and gave the Niners a huge scare in the divisional round.
The 2024 Packers were notably better throughout the regular season, going 11-6 (with 5 of those 6 losses coming to 14-win teams), with a 3rd ranked finish in DVOA. But this team limped to the finish line. They were mostly dominated by the Vikings Week 17, and they had an alarming Week 18 loss to a terrible Bears team that had previously lost 10 straight.
Last week: 4
3) Vikings (14-3): 1 seed history vs. 5 seed history since the NFL moved to a 14-team playoff in 2020:
| Seed | Record | SB appearances | SB wins |
| 1 | 11-7 | 4 | 1 |
| 5 | 5-7 | 1 | 1 |
The 2020 Bucs were a 5 seed. They went 4-0 and won the Super Bowl. Take that team out and 5 seeds are 1-7.
That 2020 Bucs team had Tom Brady. This 2024 Vikings team has Sam Darnold.
2) Eagles (14-3): If we're factoring in injuries, the Eagles have the best roster in the NFC.
Last week: 3
• 7 seed Packers: CB Jaire Alexander, RB A.J. Dillon
• 6 seed Commanders: RB Auston Ekeler, WR Noah Brown, K Austin Seibert
• 5 seed Vikings: LT Christian Darrisaw, QB J.J. McCarthy
• 4 seed Rams: CB Derion Kendrick, S John Johnson III, LB Troy Reeder
• 3 seed Buccaneers: WR Chris Godwin, S Jordan Whitehead
• 2 seed Eagles: EDGE Brandon Graham
• 1 seed Lions: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, CB Carlton Davis, EDGE Marcus Davenport, LB Derrick Barnes, EDGE John Cominsky, LB Malcolm Rodriguez
Yes, the Lions have a lot of significant injuries as anyone who follows the NFL knows. But also, all the rest of the teams in the NFC are very healthy for this time of year.
It will be highly impressive if they can get to the Super Bowl this handicapped.
Last week: 1
MORE: Clown show Giants to retain incompetent head coach, general manager duo Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen
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