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December 17, 2024

NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Week 16 edition

The Eagles, Vikings and Lions are all tied for the best record in the NFC at 12-2.

Eagles NFL
121424DeeboSamuel Kelley L Cox/Imagn Images

You just hate to see such a good guy like Deebo Samuel have a season end the way that his did.

Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books, and last year's Super Bowl representative from the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers, are dead. Oh, and we have a new team in the top spot.

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Obituary: 49ers (6-8)

The San Francisco 49ers over the last few years have managed to be equal parts cocky and pathetic crybabies. That rare duality made them one of the most detestable NFL teams in recent memory, even though they were never even to close the deal

Yes, there were injuries, but these Niners had awful vibes all summer and looked nothing like the dominant force they once were before the real injury carnage hit. They choked games away with big mistakes, and it was fitting that the posterchild of their cocky/crybaby duality, Deebo Samuel, cried to the media about getting more targets ahead of their Week 15 matchup against the Rams, and when Brock Purdy obliged... mmmmmmmm... drrrrrop.

Against the Rams, Samuel had three catches on seven targets for 16 yards, as well as two carries for three yards. In the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, he had three catches on 11 targets for 33 yards, and three carries for eight yards. In the NFC Championship Game in Philly the year before that, he had three catches on six targets for 33 yards, and six carries for -9 yards.

In other words, in the last three games that sealed the Niners' fate for the season (NFCCG vs. PHI in 2022, SB vs. KC in 2023, Week 15 vs. LAR in 2024), Samuel had nine catches on 24 targets for 72 yards (3.0 yards per target), and 11 carries for two yards (0.18 YPC). 

Maybe it was the long snapper's fault.

Looking ahead, Trent Williams will be 37 next season, Christian McCaffrey's long-term viability will be in question, and most importantly, Purdy will be eligible for a contract extension that some believe could be in the ballpark of Dak Prescott's $60 million per year deal.

Was Purdy carried by a stacked Niners roster? And if he is going to be making top of the market money, will Purdy be able to carry a team that will no longer be able to afford supporting pieces the way they did when their quarterback was on an extremely cheap contract?

My guess? They're screwed.

After the Niners' loss to the Rams on Thursday, I tweeted this:

To begin, it's wild to me that in 2024, people still can't detect sarcasm. But also, it was kind of fun seeing fans of teams around the league uniformly unite against my tweet because of their hatred for this Niners team. There have been teams more hated, like the Belichick/Brady Patriots, for example, but this recent iteration of the Niners have to be on the Mount Rushmore of hated teams that never actually won anything.

Graveyard

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Hierarchy

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10) Falcons (7-7): Nobody cares because it happened in a Falcons-Raiders game, but holy hell this was one of the worst roughing the passer calls of the season.

My over-officiated calls that have major impacts on games power rankings:

  1. Weak roughing the passer calls.
  2. Defensive pass interference on woefully underthrown balls.
  3. Ineligible man downfield penalties when the ineligible man downfield has nothing to do with the play and is like a yard or two further downfield than allowed.

Last week: 11

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9) Cardinals (7-7): I have a nasty stomach virus and I'm already super late publishing this Hierarchy, so whaddya say we just wait until we kill off the Cardinals to have something more substantial to say about them? Because, really, I mean, who cares about this team? Good? Great, thanks for your understanding.

Last week: 10

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8) Seahawks (8-6): The NFC West is probably going to come down to the Seahawks and Rams, who play each other Week 18. Their remaining schedules:

Seahawks (8-6) Rams (8-6) 
Vikings (12-2) At Jets (4-10) 
At Bears (4-10) Cardinals (7-7) 
At Rams (8-6) Seahawks (8-6) 

The Rams currently hold head-to-head and divisional record tiebreakers, and they have the easier schedule.

Also, lol "12th man."

Last week: 6

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7) Commanders (9-5): The Commanders are 9-5, a nice record. They are tied with three other teams for the eighth-best winning percentage in the NFL.

According to the team's website, it is their best start after 14 games since 1992, lol.

Last week: 7
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6) Rams (8-6): The Rams beat the Niners four field goals to two on Thursday night in a sloppy rain game, and they somehow now find themselves atop the NFC West for the first time this season after starting 1-4. Of the 14 teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, the Rams are the only one with a negative point differential:

  1. Lions: +177
  2. Bills: +135
  3. Eagles: +122
  4. Vikings: +117
  5. Packers: : +92
  6. Broncos: +89
  7. Ravens: +86
  8. Commanders: +81
  9. Buccaneers: +77
  10. Steelers: +71
  11. Chiefs: +70
  12. Chargers: +47
  13. Texans: +28
  14. Rams: -28
Actually, the top 13 teams in point differential would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. 

Last week: 8

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5) Buccaneers (8-6): Mike Evans had nine catches for 159 yards and 2 TDs against the Chargers on Sunday. 

He has topped 1000 yards in each of his first 10 NFL seasons. His career stats, not including 2024:

 Mike EvansRec Yards YPC TD 
2014 68 1051 15.5 12 
2015 74 1206 16.3 
2016 96 1321 13.8 12 
2017 71 1001 14.1 
2018 86 1524 17.7 
2019 67 1157 17.3 
2020 70 1006 14.4 13 
2021 74 1035 14.0 14 
2022 77 1124 14.6 
2023 79 1255 15.9 13 
TOTAL 762 11680 15.3 94 

Evans missed three games this season, so it's going to be a close call. He has 749 receiving yards with three games to go.

Last week: 5

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4) Packers (10-4): The Packers are going to be in the playoffs, but have no realistic chance of winning the NFC North. I'm sure they'll want to avoid whoever the 2 seed is in the NFC (whether that's the Eagles, Lions, or Vikings), but once they have the 6 seed wrapped up they can start resting guys.

Last week: 4

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3) Vikings (12-2): Yep:

Last week: 4

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2) Lions (12-2): When the Bills went up 35-14 over the Lions in the third quarter on Sunday, that game seemed over. But credit the Lions, who are going to give you everything they have for 60 minutes. They couldn't get stops on defense but they kept scoring on offense and wouldn't go away:

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They have the firepower to win shootouts, however, they're going to have difficulty getting stops because of the absurd number of key players on defense who are out (good Lions injury tracker here). Here were their Week 1 starters, with guys on IR (or soon to be on IR) crossed out:

  1. Aidan Hutchinson, DL
  2. Alim McNeill, DL
  3. Levi Onwuzurike, DL
  4. Kyle Peko, DL
  5. Jack Campbell LB
  6. Derrick Barnes, LB
  7. Alex Anzalone, LB
  8. Carlton Davis, CB
  9. Terrion Arnold, CB
  10. Kerby Joseph, S
  11. Brian Branch, DB
And then they're also missing key backups like Marcus Davenport, John Cominsky, Malcolm Rodriguez, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and Khalil Dorsey. That's just on defense! Offensively, they may have lost RB David Montgomery for the season as well.

When healthy, the Lions are probably the best team in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, Super Bowls are typically won by relatively healthy teams, and that is not what the Lions will be the rest of the season.

Last week: 1

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1) Eagles (12-2): By way of attrition and a general lack of elite NFC rosters, the Eagles are the best team in the conference right now. 1-seed odds, via Inpredictable:

  1. Lions: 49%
  2. Eagles: 35%
  3. Vikings: 15%

If they can get past the Commanders Week 16, all the Eagles have left is Cooper Rush and whatever scrub the Giants trot out for a tank game.

Last week: 2


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