Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books, and the San Francisco 49ers went a long way toward separating themselves from the rest of the contenders in the NFC. There are no new obituaries this week.
Graveyard
Hierarchy
10) Falcons (6-8): Desmond Ridder consistently makes one horrific play in pretty much every game. Sunday's version:
Last week: 10
9) Packers (6-8): The Packers looked for a hot second like they might be the scary team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Now? They're basically one loss from the graveyard.
Last week: 5
8) Vikings (7-7): Nick Mullens threw the best INT of the season against the Bengals:
Last week: 7
7) Saints (7-7): Six of the Saints' seven wins have come against teams that have already clinched a losing record this season.
Last week: 9
6) Buccaneers (7-7): The Buccaneers' offensive DVOA in 2022 with Tom Brady at quarterback: 18.
The Buccaneers' offensive DVOA in 2023 through 14 games in 2023 with Baker Mayfield at quarterback: 18.
(I don't have any conclusions here — just thought that was interesting.)
Last week: 8
5) Seahawks (7-7): Like the Eagles, the Seahawks had a "gauntlet" of their own:
• Week 11: At Rams L
• Week 12: 49ers L
• Week 13: At Cowboys L
• Week 14: At 49ers L
• Week 15: Eagles W
They'll finish up at Tennessee, at home against Pittsburgh, and then at Arizona.
They beat the Lions in Detroit, they beat the Eagles on Monday night, and they gave the Cowboys all they could handle a few weeks ago. The Seahawks aren't Super Bowl contenders, but maybe they'll make some team unexpectedly go one-and-done in the playoffs?
Last week: 5
4) Lions (10-4): With the their win over Denver and the Vikings' loss to the Bengals, the Lions pretty much have at least the 3 seed on lock, with a decent enough chance of earning the 2 seed if the Eagles and Cowboys continue to stub their toes down the stretch.
A look at the longest NFL playoff win droughts:
| Team | Seasons since last playoff win |
| Lions | 31 |
| Dolphins | 22 |
| Raiders | 20 |
| Commanders | 17 |
The Lions and Dolphins have a good chance of ending their streaks this season.
Last week: 4
3) Eagles (10-4): On Tuesday morning, I went back and read my Eagles dumpster fire post from this summer. My 10 things:
1) They lost a bunch of starters: They certainly miss those linebackers and safeties. ✅
2) A lot of their best players are getting pretty old: We've seen regression from Darius Slay, Brandon Graham, and arguably even Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce. ✅
3) They lost some coaches, too: I don't think I have to sell the impact of this one to anyone. ✅
4) Injury luck is going to run out: The Eagles haven't lost many guys to long term injuries, but they haven't had the same (unsustainable) injury luck they had a year ago. ✅
5) They still hadn't beaten any good quarterbacks: They did beat some good quarterbacks this season, but as we have seen the defense looks very different when they play anyone decent. They feasted on trash quarterbacks all year in 2022. ✅
6) Their special teams stunk last season: Oh hey, an area of improvement! ❌
7) They have the toughest schedule in the NFL based on 2022 results: The "gauntlet" started out promisingly, but it finally bit them. ✅
8) They're going to get everyone's best: We can probably all agree that opponents seem to give the Eagles their best shot this season, right? I mean, the 49ers come into Philly wearing all black, trying the start pregame fights, etc. ✅
9) They faced pretty much no adversity in 2022: It took two bad losses for them to demote their defensive coordinator. ✅
10) There hasn't been a repeat NFC East champion since 2004: TBD. 🤷♂️
I list all those things not to say, "Hey look at how smart I am, everyone!" (OK, maybe a little.)
But really, it wasn't that hard to identify those likely areas of concern, and sure enough, I'm 8 out of 9 so far.
Last week: 2
2) Cowboys (10-4): The Cowboys are 7-0 at home with a point differential of +171. They are 3-4 on the road with a point differential of -4.
The Cowboys' loss on the road to the Bills Week 15 significantly damaged their chances of winning the NFC East. If they end up being the 5 seed, here's what their schedule will look like over the next seven weeks, including their loss in Buffalo:
• Week 15: At Bills
• Week 16: At Dolphins
• Week 17: Lions
• Week 18: At Commanders
• Wildcard Round: At NFCS winner
• Divisional Round: At some other division winner (likely Eagles or 49ers?)
• Conference Championship: At 49ers, maybe Eagles?
My #analysis here? That's a lot of road games.
Last week: 3
1) 49ers (11-3): Week 15 really couldn't have gone any better for the Niners. They won, of course, but the Eagles' and Cowboys' losses brought them even closer to locking up the 1 seed. They can actually clinch the 1 seed if they win Week 16, and all three of the Eagles, Cowboys, and Lions lose.
If they can beat the Ravens and Commanders Weeks 16 and 17, they'll be in a position to rest starters Week 18, plus the first-round bye.
They're the best team in the NFL (and it isn't close), and they're likely to be very fresh for the playoffs.
Last week: 1
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