November 28, 2022
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports
Jalen Hurts can still run, but he also learned how to throw. So that's good.
Week 12 of the NFL season is in the books, and we have four teams in the NFC that feel like certainties to make the playoffs, with the rest of the playoff contenders struggling to find consistency. We have no new obituaries this week, mainly because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers refuse to pull away in the awful NFC South.
9) Falcons (5-7): The Falcons have been getting killed for "not running the ball for the win" against the Commanders on Sunday, as if it's that easy. The following play is going to be a touchdown if Daron Payne doesn't get his big paw on this throw. Assuming Marcus Mariota leads Cordarrelle Patterson even a little bit, Patterson is going to walk in for a touchdown.
KENDALL FULLER INTERCEPTION IN THE END ZONE!
— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2022
📺: #ATLvsWAS on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/MlCeIbpXcn pic.twitter.com/rqJd1wJrEa
The Falcons have been in some wild games this season. They've won some (Panthers, Seahawks), and they've lost some (Saints, Chargers, and Commanders). If they played in literally any other division, we'd have already written their obituary. But in the NFC South...
| NFC South | Record |
| Buccaneers | 5-6 |
| Falcons | 5-7 |
| Panthers | 4-8 |
| Saints | 4-8 |
8) Giants (7-4): After a first quarter touchdown got wiped off the board because of an illegal man downfield penalty, Brian Daboll went apes*** on the officials.
Appreciate the meme, Brian Daboll 🫡 pic.twitter.com/tschPzppsJ
— Bad Sports Refs (@BadSportsRefs) November 24, 2022
I don't blame him. The penalty is on the right tackle below, who is in pass protection. This is not a screen, or an RPO, or any type of play that illegal man downfield penalties are designed to police. But... illegal man downfield penalties became a point of emphasis this season in the NFL, and as a result the officials have been over-officiating the bejesus out of it.
By letter of the law, sure, it's a penalty, but it is basically the equivalent of calling a lane violation in basketball because a guy lined up with a toenail across the line on the first of two free throws.
If you look at the play itself, it's a play action boot with the backside receiver coming across the field, wide open. That is very clearly a play that was repped heavily in practice and called on the (scripted) first drive of the game in a spot that Daboll thought it would work, which, of course, it did. It is also the kind of "scheme play" that you draw up when you have eight offensive starters on the shelf with injuries. To have your players execute it, only to have it not count because your right tackle's momentum inconsequentially carried himself across an imaginary line by a yard or so, while in pass protection, must be absolutely infuriating.
There's going to be some garbage illegal man downfield penalty that costs some team a playoff game, isn't there?
It became a bad rule when they started over-officiating the living hell out of it. Ineligible man downfield penalties, by year:
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) November 25, 2022
2017: 14
2018: 16
2019: 39
2020: 25
2021: 46
2022: On pace for 103 https://t.co/6niRchKrfQ
Ultimately, the Giants lost 28-20, and deservedly so, but who knows how that game goes if that opening drive touchdown stands.
Anyway, my illegal man downfield rant aside, as noted last week, the Giants are likely not going to the playoffs, in my opinion. They have a boatload of injuries, and the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, via Tankathon.
And if indeed they don't make the playoffs, they will have also ruined their chances of drafting an elite quarterback prospect because they'll be picking in the late teens.
Last week: 7
7) Seahawks (6-5): The Seahawks are a fun story in that they sold on Russell Wilson before his value was wrecked, and proceeded to get a surprise season out of Geno Smith as well as some unexpectedly incredible contributions from their rookie draft class. But, man, are they flawed. They simply could not stop Josh Jacobs on Sunday.
👑 229 rush yards
— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2022
👑 74 receiving yards
👑 2 TDs including the game-winner
Just an insane stat line from @iAM_JoshJacobs. (by @CrownRoyal) pic.twitter.com/YkpPgz2pJa
That's not new. They have allowed a bunch of running backs (or other) to have huge days against them this season:
Last week: 6
6) Commanders (7-5): Discredit the Commanders' win on Sunday because of a batted pass if you will, but it's worth noting that Daron Payne (who batted said pass) and Jonathan Allen have been arguably the best interior defensive line duo in the NFL this season.
| Commanders iDL | Tackles (TFL) | Sacks | FF | Batted passes |
| Jonathan Allen | 45 (14) | 6.5 | 1 | 3 |
| Daron Payne | 47 (13) | 6.5 | 0 | 5 |
| TOTAL | 92 (27) | 13.0 | 1 | 8 |
Those two guys are the biggest reason the Commanders are 7-5.
Last week: 8
5) Buccaneers (5-6): The Bucs' interior offensive line has been challenged all season long after losing LG Ali Marpet to retirement, C Ryan Jensen to a knee injury, and Alex Cappa to free agency. They'll now be without Tristan Wirfs (AKA, the second-best RT in the NFL) for a while after this weird play. (Ignore the silly take in this tweet, and focus on the video):
Tristan Wirfs injured on this play. Completely irresponsible by the rusher. This should 1000% be penalized in the NFL.
— Dalton Godbey (@DaltonTVNews) November 27, 2022
Awful. pic.twitter.com/KrZ2DndPGy
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Donovan Smith | Nick Leverett | Robert Hainsey | Shaq Mason | Josh Wells |
Compare that with the offensive line the Bucs fielded in the playoffs against the Eagles last year:
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Donovan Smith | Ali Marpet | Ryan Jensen | Alex Cappa | Tristan Wirfs |
The bottom O-line is better. #Analysis.
Last week: 5
4) Cowboys (8-3): Sheil Kapadia has the projected playoff matchups if the season ended today.
NFC playoffs after Week 12:
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) November 28, 2022
(1) Eagles: Bye
(7) Commanders at (2) Vikings
(6) Giants at (3) 49ers
(5) Cowboys at (4) Bucs
Odds, using betting markets, below.
WasTeam with better odds than Giants.
Seahawks still positioned well.
Goodnight: Cardinals, Packers, Rams, Bears. pic.twitter.com/iQr03LOzo8
I'm curious how Cowboys fans feel about that. The Bucs have not looked impressive, at all, this season, but they did completely shut down Dallas' offense way back in Week 1.
Last week: 4
3) 49ers (7-4): The 49ers extended their second half defensive scoreless streak to four games on Sunday against the Saints. Actually, they shut the Saints out, giving them six straight shutout quarters. DeMeco Ryans and the Niners D have really bounced back after getting embarrassed by the Chiefs a month ago.
Last week: 3
2) Vikings (9-2): I feel like this is becoming the Justin Jefferson section of this series. It's well-deserved this week, as Jefferson passed Randy Moss for the most receiving yards by a player in their first three seasons in NFL history. The top five, all-time:
| Player | Receiving yards, first three seasons |
| Justin Jefferson, Vikings | 4,248 |
| Randy Moss, Vikings | 4,163 |
| Odell Beckham, Giants | 4,122 |
| A.J. Green, Bengals | 3,833 |
| Michael Thomas, Saints | 3,787 |
He needs 45 receptions the rest of the season to pass Thomas in that category. 7.5 per game. That's doable. Jefferson has 3,504 more receiving yards than Jalen Reagor.
I should also address the Vikings' placement in the Hierarchy here, by the way. Are they better than the Cowboys or 49ers? No, I don't think so. But they're going to skate to the 2 seed because their division is so awful. Oftentimes within the structure of government, the local five and dime, or even here within the Hierarchy, people/teams/whatever might have a higher rank due to circumstance as opposed to merit. The Vikings are that team this year because they get to play in the worst division in the NFL:
Point differentials by division:
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) November 28, 2022
AFC East: +207
NFC East: +169
AFC North: +5
AFC West: +5
NFC West: -46
NFC South: -91
AFC South: -117
NFC North: -132
1) Eagles (10-1): The Eagles' rushing attack in 2021 vs. 2022:
| Eagles rushing attack | 2021 | 2022 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.1 | 162.5 |
| Rushing first downs per game | 9.4 | 10.4 |
| Rushing TDs per game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Yards per rush attempt | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Rushes of 20+ yards per game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Percentage of rushing plays resulting in first downs | 29.6% | 30.2% |
The Eagles' rushing offense is arguably better than it was a year ago when they had the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL.
But now they also have A.J. Brown, a good defense, and Jalen Hurts learned how to pass.
Last week: 1
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