They're stuck with Derek Carr and for some reason they chose to retain head coach Dennis Allen. They now have seven projected starters over the age of 30, which is fine if you're a legitimate Super Bowl contender, which the Saints most certainly are not.

12) Commanders (4-13 in 2023): The Commanders had the most cap space entering free agency and they have the No. 2 overall pick. Low bar, but they're going to be better in 2024.

11) Bears (7-10 in 2023): The Bears are going to draft Caleb Williams, who should be in a far better position as a rookie than Justin Field was in during his time in Chicago. Williams will be throwing to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and Gerald Everett. By comparison, Fields' receivers in 2022 were Darnell Mooney, Equinimeous St. Brown, and Byron Pringle. Oof. 

The Bears' offensive line remains a work in progress, but that too is a hell of a lot better than anything Fields worked with.

10) Vikings (7-10 in 2023): Kirk Cousins walked in free agency, and as a result the Vikings will likely take a short-term step backward in 2024, but I kinda love what they've done this offseason. They added edge rushers Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks in 2023) and Andrew Van Ginkle, as well as one of my personal favorite free agents this offseason, LB Blake Cashman.

They also landed an extra first-round pick in a deal with the Texans:

If you compare that trade with the one the Eagles made with the Saints well in advance of the 2022 draft, that's not bad at all!

The Vikings now have the 11th and 23rd overall picks in the draft. I reserve the right to change my mind depending on what they do with those picks, but I applaud their recognition that the end goal should be winning a championship, not just having a good regular season record and being a quick out on the playoffs, which is what their ceiling was with Cousins.

9) Falcons (7-10 in 2023): The Falcons continue to reside in extended purgatory, as they have won seven games in four of the last five seasons. 

• 2018: 7-9
• 2019: 7-9
• 2020: 4-12
• 2021: 7-10
• 2022: 7-10
• 2023: 7-10

In 2023, they also had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, as their opponents had a combined winning percentage of 0.429.

Hm, I wonder why they're so mediocre. Maybe it's because they have no concept whatsoever of positional importance. Here are their first picks in the draft during that span:

• 2018: WR Calvin Ridley (26th overall)
• 2019: OG Chris Lindstrom (14th overall)
• 2020: CB A.J. Terrell (16th overall)
• 2021: TE Kyle Pitts (4th overall)
• 2022: WR Drake London (8th overall)
• 2023: RB Bijan Robinson (8th overall)

So to recap, they took a guard 14th overall, a tight end 4th overall, a possession receiver 8th overall, and a running back 8th overall. Those guys are mostly good players, but holy hell is that an atrocious use of premium resources.

And what did they do this offseason? They paid big money to the mediocrest of mediocre quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins, because of course they did.

8) Buccaneers (9-8 in 2023): The 2023 Bucs wildly exceeded expectations, landing among the final eight teams in the playoffs after blowing out the Eagles in the wildcard round. Baker Mayfield had arguably a better season than Tom Brady did the previous year, Mike Evans had his 10th straight 1000-yard season, and Todd Bowles, who was squarely on the hot seat, earned at least another year at the helm. Soooo, progress, right?

Eh. Bowles getting another season probably isn't the best thing. He's an elite defensive coordinator, but he's a horrid game manager. Meanwhile, Mayfield played on a one-year deal worth $4 million last season. That was a hell of a bargain. This offseason he scored a three-year deal worth $100 million. 

I kinda see some parallels here to the 2022 Giants that made it to the divisional round and then had predictable regression the next season. Of course, working in their favor is the fact that they'll continue ro play in an atrocious division.

7) Rams (10-7 in 2023): Aaron Donald was a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, he made the Pro Bowl in all 10 of his NFL seasons, he was an eight-time First-Team All-Pro, and he made the clinching play in the Rams' Super Bowl win in 2021.

Top 10 all-time NFL player.

6) Seahawks (9-8 in 2023): The Seahawks' defensive DVOA the last four seasons:

• 2020: 13
• 2021: 20
• 2022: 22
• 2023: 28

Notice a trend there? I do. 📉📉📉.

The Seahawks have some really good offensive skill position players in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth Walker, to go along with a serviceable quarterback in Geno Smith. That makes them good enough to compete for a low wildcard seed each year even with a bad defense. 

With a low bar for growth on defense, new head coach Mike Macdonald is in a favorable situation to look good compared to his predecessor, Pete Carroll.

5) Packers (9-8 in 2023): After cutdown day last season the Packers had the youngest team in the NFL, with their players averaging 25.0 years of age. They were not expected to be competitive in 2023, but they made the playoffs, Jordan Love got hot (for a while, anyway), and they nearly knocked off the 49ers in the divisional round. The Packers are in an enviable position, as long as they can continue to surround Love with talent and build a better defense.

Love is going to get a lot of hype this offseason, and he'll likely be a hipster prediction for some to win MVP. When a quarterback has a breakout season like Love did last year, the consensus conclusion is usually something to the effect of, "He's only going to get better." Eh. Maybe. Opposing defensive staffs on the Packers' schedule are going to dissect his 2023 film this offseason and they'll try to exploit whatever weaknesses they find both in Love's game and with the Packers' scheme. We saw that with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last season. It'll be interesting to see how Love and the Packers' staff responds.

4) Cowboys (12-5 in 2023): The Cowboys knew that they were going to be one of the most cap-constrained teams in the NFL this offseason, especially with CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons on the verge of not playing on their rookie contracts any longer. That had to have made their one-and-done playoff performance all the more devastating. As expected, they lost a number of key players in free agency, particularly along their offensive line. Their starting lineup on offense currently looks like this: 

• QB: Dak Prescott
• RB: Rico Dowdle
• WR: CeeDee Lamb
• WR: Brandin Cooks
• WR: Jalen Tolbert
• TE: Jake Ferguson
• LT Tyler Smith
• LG: T.J. Bass
• C: Brock Hoffman
• RG: Zack Martin
• RT: Terence Steele

That offensive line is looking verrrry shaky. Martin is on the downside of his career, Steele stunk in 2023, Smith may be moving from LG to LT, and Bass/Hoffman are a pair of undrafted guys with a combined 564 career snaps played.

Defensively, the Cowboys' starting lineup is still fine enough, but they lost a lot of role players and depth.

Cowboys fans have naturally been very displeased with their team's offseason. The following Twitter thread alleges that in recent years the Jones family more or less has prioritized other more lucrative business ventures over the Cowboys. I dove into this this with skepticism initially, but there are some pretty compelling points here:

The idea that the Cowboys are essentially a hobby for the Joneses is just... 🤯. But there seems to be at least some truth in it.

3) Eagles (11-6 in 2022): It feels a little icky having the Eagles at No. 3 in the Hierarchy, given their epic collapse to close the 2023 season, but it does feel like their offensive and defensive coordinators will be a significant step up from what was in place in 2023. And as a reminder, the rest of the NFC really isn't very good.

2) Lions (12-5 in 2023): For the first time in like 30 years the Lions will have a target on their back, and they're playing in a division with two young, hungry, potentially up-and-coming teams in the Packers and Bears.

On the bright side, it felt like a near-certainty that Ben Johnson would be a head coach somewhere this season, but he'll serve as the Lions' offensive coordinator for at least another year, which is huge for the continued success of Jared Goff and the Lions' potent offense.

1) 49ers (12-5 in 2022): The Niners did some reshuffling along their defensive line, but otherwise it's pretty close to the same starting roster they had in 2023. Barring a surprise trade of Brandon Aiyuk, the offense will return the same 11 starters (screenshot via PFF).

And quite clearly, even if they're insufferable crybabies the 49ers still have the most talented team in the NFC.