January 09, 2024
Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports
Desmond Ridder and the Falcons — along with two other teams — are headed to the graveyard.
The 2023 regular season is in the books, and the tourney will be underway next weekend. We have three new obituaries in the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Seattle Seahawks.
The Falcons were a trendy breakout darling for a lot of folks before the start of the 2023 season, which never made any sense since they had an unestablished quarterback in Desmond Ridder, a weak pass rush, and an uninspiring head coach in Arthur Smith.
As it turned out, Ridder was arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and was benched twice. He finished with 12 TD passes, 12 INTs, and 12 fumbles.
Meanwhile, Smith was fired after going 7-10 in 2021, 7-10 in 2022, and, yes, 7-10 in 2023, despite playing the softest schedule in the NFL. For his final on-field moment as the head coach of the Falcons, Smith yelled at Saints coach Dennis Allen because the Saints scored a late touchdown in garbage time out of the victory formation. The TD (lol):
The Saints set up in victory formation in what looked like it would be a kneel down and then handed it off to Jamaal Williams for a TD. pic.twitter.com/Spz8oKCkji
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 7, 2024
And the yelling:
Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen have a postgame chat 😳 pic.twitter.com/s469d2OcWq
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 7, 2024
The Falcons have some good players, like RB Bijan Robinson, OG Chris Lindstrom, and S Jessie Bates. Unfortunately, their best players are also at positions that aren't as important, as, saayyyy, quarterback, which, again, they don't have.
After Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, the Saints' aging, expensive, and mortgaged roster was begging for a full teardown and rebuild. But for some reason, they kept trying to run it back in each of the last three seasons with (mostly) their core players instead of acknowledging that they were no longer Super Bowl contenders, or anything close. Predictably, they had three mediocre seasons, going 9-8 in 2021, 7-10 in 2022, and 9-8 in 2023, for a combined three-year record of 25-26 (0.490).
During the 2023 offseason, the Saints signed mid quarterback Derek Carr to a four-year deal worth $150 million. The Saints' offense was disjointed for much of the season, with receivers openly criticizing Carr at times. The Saints got out to a 5-7 record, and it was looking like Carr might be one-and-done. However, the Saints won four of their last five games, with Carr throwing 14 TDs vs. 2 INTs, but it was too little, too late.
Because of their respectable finish, the Saints will likely stick with Carr and it appears that Dennis Allen will also get to keep his job.
Spoiler: An 8-9 season is incoming in 2024.
The Seahawks have some really good skill position players in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth Walker, to go along with a serviceable quarterback in Geno Smith. That makes them good enough to compete for a low wildcard seed each year. Unfortunately, they are far from the elite defense that used to make them annual Super Bowl contenders, and they're getting worse on that side of the ball every year.
The Seahawks' defensive DVOA the last four seasons:
• 2020: 13
• 2021: 20
• 2022: 22
• 2023: 28
Notice a trend there? I do. 📉📉📉.
Of course, Pete Carroll is a defensive-minded head coach, so his fingerprints are on that defensive regression. Like Dennis Allen above, Carroll appears safe from the firing squad, despite a three-year record of 25-26.
The Seahawks are good enough to win around half their games, but they're not close to Super Bowl contention, which is kind of a theme among the three obituaries this week.
7) Eagles (11-6): Since December, the Eagles have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. They're 1-5 with a point differential of -50, and their opponents had a combined record of 49-53 (0.480).
Last week: 5
6) Buccaneers (9-8): The Eagles have lost five of six. The Bucs have won five of six. They didn't exactly play a murderer's row of opponents, but 5-1 since December is better than 1-5. #Analysis.
Side note: How dumb is the Pro Bowl? Antoine Winfield had 122 tackles, 6 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 3 INTs, and 12 pass breakups, and he didn't make it. He's the best safety in the NFL, and if the media folks who have All-Pro votes know ball at all, he'll be a unanimous first-team choice.
Last week: 6
5) Packers (9-8): Jordan Love's last four games:
| Jordan Love | Comp/Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Buccaneers | 29/39 (74.4%) | 284 (7.3) | 2-0 | 111.5 |
| Panthers | 17/28 (60.7%) | 219 (7.8) | 2-0 | 109.1 |
| Vikings | 24/33 (72.7%) | 256 (7.8) | 3-0 | 125.3 |
| Bears | 27/32 (84.4%) | 316 (9.9) | 2-0 | 128.6 |
| TOTAL | 97/132 (73.5%) | 1075 (8.1) | 9-0 | 120.0 |
Prediction: Next offseason, he's going to be a popular MVP prediction for people looking to be different from the crowd.
Last week: 7
4) Rams (10-7): My RB1/WR1/WR2 power rankings in the NFC:
Williams and Nacua had stellar seasons out of nowhere, and Kupp basically won the Rams a Super Bowl a couple years ago.
Last week: 4
3) Lions (12-5): Dan Campbell made a controversial decision to play his starters Week 18 even though the odds of moving from the 3 seed to the 2 seed were extraordinarily low. And sure enough, a key contributor in TE Sam LaPorta got hurt.
#SamLaPorta
— David J. Chao - ProFootballDoc (@ProFootballDoc) January 7, 2024
Hazard of playing starters in Week 18
See why playoffs in jeopardy🙏https://t.co/7uwasutHQZ pic.twitter.com/qIC6vrPrYT
Campbell said LaPorta has an "outside shot" of playing against the Rams in the wildcard round. We'll see if that bites them.
Last week: 2
2) Cowboys (12-5): A couple weeks ago, we showed the records of all the 5 seeds since 1990, when the NFL moved to a 12-team playoff (6 in each conference). During that span, there were 66 teams that were 5 seeds.
• Overall record: 35-64 (0.354)
• NFC/AFC Championship Game appearances: 7 (10.6% got that far.)
• Super Bowl appearances: 2 (3% got that far)
• Both teams that made it to the Super Bowl won it. (2007 Giants, 2020 Buccaneers)
Of course, we showed that on the premise that it was likely that the Eagles would beat the two atrocious teams left on the their schedule, but, you know, they didn't.
Here are the records of all the 2 seeds since since 1990:
• Overall record: 78-58 (0.574)
• NFC/AFC Championship Game appearances: 46 (69.7% got that far)
• Super Bowl appearances: 17 (25.8% got that far)
• Super Bowl wins: 8 (12.1% won it all)
It should of course be noted that the 2 seed used to get a bye, making the path to the Super Bowl easier than it is now. Still, being the 2 seed is WAAAAY better than being the 5 seed.
Last week: 3
1) 49ers (12-5): When the 49ers are rolling and blowing teams out, Brock Purdy has had some monster statistical games. When the 49ers have fallen behind in some games, he's been shaky. Odds are that the Niners are going to need Purdy to be the man at some point throughout the playoffs. We'll see if he can step up and be great or if he'll essentially become Jimmy Garoppolo, Part II.
Last week: 1
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