January 28, 2015
Most years, the college basketball season brings us one or two surprising prospects that shoot up draft boards. Look no further than the Orlando Magic’s young starting backcourt for recent examples: Victor Oladipo was very much that guy in 2013, just like former-Sixer-for-five-minutes Elfrid Payton was to an extent last year.
This year, there’s no debate that Ohio State freshman guard D’Angelo Russell has made the biggest jump from the beginning of the season. Coming into college, the 6-foot-5 combo guard was ranked 13th in his class by Rivals and 18th by ESPN. He wasn’t completely off the radar, but people weren’t talking about him in the same breath as Jahlil Okafor, Karl Towns, or Emmanuel Mudiay. Today, Draft Express has vaulted him all the way up to second in their latest rankings.
Russell also has a terrific nickname: “Voodoo,” in reference to the album by recording artist D’Angelo. Hopefully he doesn’t take the comparison too seriously and shoot a music video in which he’s naked the entire time. Let’s take a closer look at Russell’s game:
Strengths: The lefty is an advanced offensive player, and it all starts with making 3s off the dribble, a skill that separates him from other prospects. According to this informative DX video post, Russell is getting 30.9 percent of his offense off the dribble and scoring 1.16 PPP on those possessions. That’s pretty amazing production.
As an 18-year-old freshman, he’s thrived in a role similar to the ones Steph Curry and James Harden currently have in the NBA. That doesn't mean he'll ever be as good as either of those guys, and on that subject, I think his ball-handling isn't quite as advanced as Curry's nor is he as explosive as Harden. It's just that Russell does a lot of stuff that reminds me of them on the college level.
SIMILARITIES TO CURRY: Like the Warriors sharpshooter, Russell is also deadly in spot-up situations, scoring 1.23 PPP so far this season. For a frame of reference, Curry was at 1.19 PPP during his junior year at Davidson on spot-ups. I’m sure defenders were literally tackling Curry by that point (remember the coach that played triangle-and-2 with both players guarding him?), but the Ohio State freshman can definitely shoot the ball.
Russell’s pure stroke and quick release alone would be enough for him to be considered an NBA prospect at his size. What makes him elite is the terrifying combo of his shooting and passing vision. Sounds a lot like Curry, huh? Here and here are two of the most ridiculous bounce passes I’ve ever seen at any level of basketball. On the second one, he basically throws a screwball that finds its way through the defense and bounces backwards right into his target’s hands. Keith Law needs to chime in on where that pitch lands on the 20-80 scouting scale.
Russell is averaging 5.1 assists to 2.9 turnovers and like the New England Patriots, ball security is an area he can have trouble with. Still, the NBA turnover leaderboard is populated by a bunch of good players, Curry and Harden included. When a talented playmaker has a ton of offensive responsibility, some passes are naturally going to have a high degree of difficulty. Just like in life, you have to allow the talented room for creative expression.
SIMILARITIES TO HARDEN: As 6-foot-5 lefties, their body types will be similar once Russell bulks up a little bit. Even more than that, they attack defenders in the same crafty manner. Russell has Harden’s head fakes, jab steps, and step backs all in his arsenal. Not his facial hair, though.
Harden’s free-throw rate was better as a freshman at Arizona State (6.0 fouls drawn per 40 minutes to 4.5 for Russell), and I believe The Bearded One's slight athleticism advantage is mainly responsible for that. Russell also has a nifty floater that he’s not at all afraid to utilize in traffic. Here are a couple of my favorite performances from him this past month that just felt Hardenish, which totally isn't a word:
Weaknesses: If Russell has a potential area of concern as an offensive player, it’s finishing at the rim. I use the word “potential” because he hasn’t been all that bad at it in Columbus so far. Per Hoop Math, Russell shoots 64 percent around the rim, although he only gets there about three times a game. From the eye test, he looks like one of those “good, not great” athlete types. That could be a problem, although if you’re going to be an average athlete in the NBA, it sure helps to have Russell’s world-class ball skills.
Defensively, Russell is liable to surrender the occasional blow-by but has the potential to be solid. His 6-foot-8 wingspan (take notes, Bilas) has helped him consistently create steals in college (3.2 STL%). If we’re going to make comparisons to Harden, it should be noted he’s also always had the tools to be at least average on that end of the floor. Despite that, highlight mixes of his IDGAF defense are all over the Internet. Russell could theoretically fall into that trap at the next level, but he hasn’t shown anything to say it’s likely.
Potential Fit With The Sixers: Unless you’re superstitious and don’t want to take another combo guard from Ohio State at the top of the draft, which is dumb, Russell is the perfect fit for the Sixers. Brett Brown already has built an above average defensive team, and Joel Embiid hasn’t even stepped onto the court yet! Jerami Grant and K.J. McDaniels are blocking jumpers in the halfcourt! They even held a real, live NBA team under 70 points last night! Defense is not the problem.
Offense, on the other hand, is an area they need to start targeting in free agency and the draft, particularly shooting. Brown always talks about how teams predictably and effectively defend the Sixers by simply packing the paint. The 44 percent three-point shooter with slick handles and expert passing vision has the potential to be a player that forces opposing coaches to change their gameplan solely because of his skill set. If Russell pans out, he’s the ideal fit.
It will be interesting to see how Russell fares through March, but at this point in the process, “Voodoo” is very much in the conversation surrounding the Sixers’ top pick.
