June 24, 2015
I don’t pretend to be very creative, so stealing ideas for posts from other sites is considered more of a means of survival rather than a pastime. This time, we’re going to reach across sport lines.
Before the NHL Draft Lottery, Grantland’s Sean McIndoe wrote a wonderful thing titled ”The NHL Draft Lottery Power Rankings.” The purpose was to rank the possible scenarios for Connor McDavid’s landing spot through different criteria: conspiracy, best for the league, best for McDavid, most deserving, etc.
In retrospect, it’s a hilarious read because one of McIndoe’s main points is Edmonton winning the lottery would be a disaster, and that’s exactly what happened. I particularly like the idea of applying different criteria to a group, so why not do so with basketball prospects?
Which player is “the safest pick?” Who plays the best defense? Which player would best fit into Chip Kelly’s (or Sam Hinkie’s) culture club? I’ll give my take (and come hell or high water, it will be hot) of whom the Sixers should take tomorrow, but let’s break down the top prospects in a couple of different ways for today.
For the purpose of this exercise, I decided to cut the player pool down to seven: Karl-Anthony Towns, Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow, Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja, Jahlil Okafor, and D’Angelo Russell. I’d be surprised if the Sixers selected some of these names with their first pick, but I’d be floored if it were anybody outside of this group.
1. Mario Hezonja
2. D’Angelo Russell
3. Kristaps Porzingis
4. Karl-Anthony Towns
5. Justise Winslow
6. Emmanuel Mudiay
7. Jahlil Okafor
Those top three names form an excellent first tier, and I certainly wouldn’t quibble too much if they were arranged in any order. Russell shot an excellent 43 percent on jumpers off the dribble and ridiculous 42 percent on shots of 24 feet or more while being the main focus of every defense he faced (h/t Derek Bodner for both of those tidbits). Porzingis stands at 7-foot-1 without shoes so good luck blocking that shot, and he somehow scored 1.16 PPP coming off screens against professionals (into March anyway, per DX). I fell in love with Hezonja’s stats (38 percent from deep on 174 attempts) and high release, so he barely wins the tiebreaker.
Towns was forced to play in the post by John Calipari, but most scouts think he’ll develop legit range in the NBA sooner rather than later. That’s a scary thought. Winslow shot 40 percent from downtown his freshman year, but was only at 64 percent from the line and poor shooting off the dribble. Okafor really could stand to up his free-throw shooting, but how much or little Mudiay improves jumper is much more important to his overall success.
1. Justise Winslow
2. Karl-Anthony Towns
3. Emmanuel Mudiay
4. Mario Hezonja
5. Kristaps Porzingis
6. D’Angelo Russell
7. Jahlil Okafor
Once again, another strong top tier of three, this time with players at different levels of the defense. Strong and athletic, Mudiay has the ability to harass the opposing ball handler at the point of attack. Towns could stand to work on his pick-and-roll defense a little bit, but he can both protect the rim (4.4 blocks per-40, according to DX) and clean the glass (8.4 defensive boards, per-40) at a high level. Winslow is a flat-out stud on defense, able to guard multiple positions, take on the toughest assignments, and cover for his teammates’ mistakes.
Hezonja should be pretty good and so could Porzingis if he bulks up. The players whose defense is especially worrying are Russell and Okafor. Fortunately for Russell, he has the adequate size and length for his position to where he could be passable in the right system. Okafor, who has nowhere to hide on the back line, doesn’t do either of those aforementioned things that Towns does well. He especially needs to ramp up his intensity/focus on defense in the pros.
1. Kristaps Porzingis
2. Kristaps Porzingis
3. Kristaps Porzingis
4. Kristaps Porzingis
5. Kristaps Porzingis
6. Mario Hezonja
7. Kristaps Porzingis
I’ll even admit that the name “Kristaps Porzingis” sounds like a bust. It’s natural to covet a player like Russell or Okafor because they’re familiar. Ohio State-Wisconsin and Duke-Virginia are the type of games on ESPN every Saturday during the winter, not Sevilla-Barcelona (although beIN Sport might have that fixture on the pitch, with Ray Hudson’s pearls of wisdom on the mic).
One word of caution: Resist the urge to call Porzingis or Hezonja “unknown” or “mystery men,” because it’s factually incorrect. To basketball fans in America, yes, that may be generally true. To NBA executives, both of those guys play in the second-best basketball league in the world with competition better than anyone playing college hoops is seeing. Porzingis and Hezonja played against grown men, and they acquitted themselves fine.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Jahlil Okafor
3. Emmanuel Mudiay
4. Mario Hezonja
5. Justise Winslow
6. D’Angelo Russell
7. Kristaps Porzingis
Let’s start with the boom-or-bust guys first. Porzingis just might not grow into his body and there’s a worry that the NBA game might be too fast for him. Russell simply might not be athletic enough to dominate the way he did in college. One ESPN study called Statistical Plus/Minus projections indicated that Russell has the highest probability to become a superstar of the projected top picks, but also the highest probability to become a bust.
I think all of the other guys are relatively safe picks. At worst, Winslow will be a lockdown defender who also brings versatility to the other end of the floor. Hezonja will provide floor spacing the second he steps on an NBA court, and he has the tools to be a good defender. Mudiay’s shooting might prevent him from becoming an elite point guard, but he still should be able to get into the lane and cause opposing defenses some problems. Okafor is the best low-post player we’ve seen in a long time, and I can’t see a scenario where Towns fails if he doesn’t stay healthy.
1. D’Angelo Russell
2. Karl-Anthony Towns
3. Jahlil Okafor
4. Justise Winslow
5. Emmanuel Mudiay
6. Kristaps Porzingis
7. Mario Hezonja
I looked at the results of a few different statistical models to come up with this order: Kevin Pelton’s WARP (Insider Only), Layne Vashro’s Expected Wins Peak, and all of the models featured in this fine Draft Express article. There’s never any complete consensus, but Russell generally grades out very well. He handled a lot of responsibility nicely as a 19-year-old freshman at Ohio State, contributing in almost every facet of the game. Note that the 4-7 spots are fairly interchangeable here. Hezonja's abysmal free-throw rate doesn't help his case.
1. Mario Hezonja
2-7. Everyone Else
This is the one list you don’t want to top. From everything you read, Hezonja is the only wild card of this group from a personality standpoint. That doesn’t automatically mean he’ll be a locker room cancer. Far from it, actually. There’s a chance that Hezonja is simply an emotional player with a lot of personality who is interesting and super fun to watch. There’s still some uncertainty here, though. Sam Hinkie once told me this about how he tries to estimate a player’s mental makeup:
“We hope to ask reasonable questions to lots of people and try to strip out their bias and make an educated guess, but it's still just that. It's why we spend so much time with managers in college, trainers in college, and sports information directors."
Whether he needed a translator or not, I imagine Hinkie was asking a bunch of questions in Catalonia.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
