MLB playoff predictions roundup: Phillies are the trendy World Series pick

Philadelphia...the favorite?

It's not really a moniker this city is used to having with their favorite teams. Whenever a team does have an inspiring run at a championship, typically Philadelphia embraces the underdog role (see the 2017 Eagles, and each of the last two Phillies squads). And just as typically, when there is a ton of hype around a Philly sports team, well, if you're reading this article you know what usually happens.

And so it's sort of odd to have the Phillies — despite all their success in the regular season — lauded as a World Series favorite. But that's what they are. We took a look at what experts are saying and predicting as the 2024 postseason kicks off and, well, there's a lot of love. A lot.

See for yourself.

The Athletic — World Series Champs

The Athletic (or the NY Times, either way), polled their baseball writers and a convincing 47.5% of them (overwhelmingly the most of any team) picked the Phillies to go all the way — a total of nine journalists. Here's what Chad Jennings had to say:

Chad Jennings (Philadelphia): If the Phillies aren’t going to win, then what’s their fatal flaw? For the Dodgers, it’s their banged-up rotation. For the Yankees, it’s a thin bullpen and uncertain bottom of the order. For the Astros, it’s injuries that have weakened their outfield and robbed them of multiple starting pitchers. But the Phillies don’t have a glaring weakness. Their pitching staff has a legitimate ace, a four-deep rotation, and an elite bullpen. Their lineup can run, hit home runs, and score in multiple ways from top to bottom. Manager Rob Thomson is a battle-tested veteran with a steady hand. [The Athletic]

Sports Illustrated — World Series Champs

SI.com also had love for the Phillies, as their five baseball scribes made their full playoff predictions. Three of these writers picked the Phillies — two over the Astros and one over the Guardians. Tom Verducci has Philly losing to the Padres in the NLCS and Will Laws has them losing to the Dodgers. Here's how Stephanie Apstein sees the World Series going:

A rematch of the 2022 World Series, which we all declared was the last gasp of the Astros dynasty. Well, they made their seventh straight ALCS last year, and I think they’ll play in their fifth World Series in eight years. This time, though, the Phillies’ superior top end of the rotation is enough. It might still not be the last gasp of the Astros dynasty, though. [Sports Illustrated]

ESPN — World Series Champs

After two deep postseason runs, the Phillies enter the tournament as one of the most experienced teams in the field, which is one of the major reasons why ESPN's Jeff Passan thinks they'll beat the Astros in the Fall Classic.

The Phillies, meanwhile, roll into October not with the best record in the league but with experience and the sort of formula that can really play en route to a championship. Starting pitching, bullpen excellence, lineup depth. Other teams check plenty of those boxes, but no other quite as frequently as Philadelphia.
Finally, after two years of misses, it's the Phillies' turn to win their first ring since 2008.
Passan's World Series prediction: Phillies over Astros [ESPN]

But Passan isn't the only ESPN baseball expert picking the Phillies. In a different article, they polled 27 of their pundits, and 13 of them picked the Phillies to win it all — including Buster Olney, Tim Kurkjian and Eric Karabell. The Padres were second with seven votes, and the Yankees third with three. So why the Phillies? Here's Dan Mullen's take:

The Phillies were our most popular pick. What makes this the year they win it all? The Phillies have knocked on the door twice in more challenging scenarios than this season with teams that weren't quite as good as this year's. Sure, they rode momentum early in beating the Braves after wild-card victories, but they also seemed to run out of steam later in October. This year, after running away with the division, that won't be a factor. [ESPN]

CBS Sports — World Series Champs

The Phillies love fest continued with CBS, where six staff writers picked winners from the MLB postseason bracket. Three of those staffers picked the Phils, with one taking the Mets, one the Padres and one the Astros. Matt Snyder thinks they'll best the Yankees, and here's why:

I had the Phillies over the Orioles in spring training and that's the main reason I'm sticking with the Phillies here. I'd love to be right from way back in March. I just couldn't stick with the Orioles, not with the state of their pitching staff and how poorly they've played the last three-plus months. The Phillies haven't looked great this past month, either, but they have all the pieces needed: A strong and deep lineup, four starting pitchers capable of throwing like aces and a stable of power arms in the bullpen. On the Yankees' end, they are getting to the playoffs looking the best of any of the AL teams and once the Astros get bounced early, no one really strikes me as a team that'll take the Yankees down. [CBS Sports]

Yahoo! Sports — World Series Champs

Another six experts broke down the MLB playoff picture at Yahoo!, as six of six picked them to advance to the NLCS, and four picked them to make it to the World Series. Three picked the Phillies to win the World Series. Here are a few details from those three championship picks:

• Russell Dorsey — in 7 games over Astros, Trea Turner MVP
• Jordan Shusterman — in 6 games over Yankees, Bryce Harper MVP
• Liz Roscher — in 6 games over Royals, Nick Castellanos MVP [Yahoo!]

The Score — World Series Champs

Eight writers picked the winners in each round of the playoffs at The Score, and the Phillies were unanimous picks to win the NLDS (as were the Padres). Five picked the Phillies over San Diego, and then four picked them to win it all.

The Sporting News— NLCS losers

Finally, someone hating on the Phillies. Perhaps this entire thing is a conspiratorial tactic to undermine the Phils success at turning bulletin board material into playoff victories? Or maybe a lot of people just like the Padres. The Sporting News doesn't believe the Phillies will advance to the World Series, as their four writers went a different way. One picked the Guardians, one San Diego, and two the Dodgers. Here's Dan Treacy on the NL picture:

The winner of a potential NLDS matchup between the Dodgers and Padres will be set up well to reach the World Series, and the Padres might have the edge right now. San Diego has played as well as any team in the NL down the stretch and hasn’t looked too intimidated against the Dodgers his season. Much like in 2022, the Padres’ bullpen will rise to the occasion and be the difference in a matchup with the Dodgers, and, this time, the rotation will handle either the Phillies or any other team that reaches the NLCS. [The Sporting News]

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