March 16, 2015
As I wrote about in our Philly-centric Selection Sunday roundup, Villanova received a beneficial draw for a couple of reasons. Primarily, the Wildcats are the top seed in the East and will potentially play in two familiar cities close in proximity to the Main Line, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Expect Nova Nation to fire up its Beamers and Benz’s and roll squad deep to both places if the team advances to the tournament’s second weekend.
As a bonus, Kentucky is on the other half of the bracket, and therefore the two teams could only meet up on April 6th in Indianapolis. Kentucky is Godzilla, and Kentucky is King Kong at the same time. Delaying facing the beast as long as possible maximizes the off chance of another mere mortal playing a perfect game and doing everyone on the right side’s dirty work. Attempting to stay on-topic, ‘Nova has plenty of heavy lifting to do before they can realistically start to discuss Kentucky. Let’s take a closer look what the East Region has to offer.
(By the way, all of these predictions are going to be incorrect. Literally every one of them will be wrong. Fair warning.)
No. 13 UC Irvine over No. 4 Louisville -- Of all the regions, the East feels the chalkiest as far as the first round is concerned. Albany is mildly intriguing as an out of left field upset pick, but if forced to pick one (and those are the rules), I’m throwing my support behind the Anteaters. Rick Pitino’s bunch has looked plenty beatable since dismissing Chris Jones.
No. 6 Providence --Tom Izzo could helm a 16th-seeded team and they shouldn’t be considered a sleeper, so Michigan State is ineligible. Instead, set your sights on Ed Cooley’s team, only one terrible late foul call away from taking ‘Nova into overtime at MSG this past weekend. Point guard Kris Dunn is electric in the open floor, an elite player equally adept at forcing steals and setting his teammates up.
No. 1 Villanova -- If Justin Anderson’s health doesn’t improve rapidly, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Louisville are arguably the least imposing 2-3-4 of any of the regions. ‘Nova is going to have at least one scare (for example, Northern Iowa is one of those unflashy Missouri Valley teams that doesn’t make any mistakes), but it seems like the safest pick.
And now to see just how Villanova got to the Final Four, here's a game-by-game breakdown of the East Region:
I don’t know what is more ridiculous, whether Dayton, directly following an Elite Eight run and enjoying a splendid season, wouldn’t be in the field if UConn had won on Sunday, or that this play-in game will take place in the Flyers’ home gym.
WINNER: Dayton
Who am I to argue with history?
WINNER: Villanova
Stealing a page from Bill Simmons’ book, the first rule of my nonexistent NCAA Tournament Picking Manifesto would be as follows: 8-9 games are complete toss-ups by their nature, and if everybody seems to be leaning in one direction, always go the other way.
WINNER: LSU
Like I mentioned above, Northern Iowa is a scary potential opponent for ‘Nova. The Panthers are excellent both offensively and defensively on the team level, and they have a legitimate star in Seth Tuttle. The Fighting Kurt Warner's move on.
WINNER: Northern Iowa
For the reasons mentioned above, in addition to 7-foot-6 Mamadou N'Diaye appearing destined to dominate one 24-hour news cycle. SportsCenter will treat N'Diaye like Tebow Friday going into Saturday, unless Tebow actually signs with the Eagles. In that case, take Louisville.
WINNER: UC Irvine
The prospect of the Flyers playing this game in front of a partisan crowd in Columbus must be worrisome to Cooley, but it says here LaDontae Henton eventually sends the Ohioans home unhappy with a late dagger.
WINNER: Providence
It was pretty funny when Albany blasted “Land Down Under” around the gym after Australian Peter Hooley sent the Great Danes dancing with a clutch late shot. I’ll always have a soft spot for Albany fans, who took over the Wells Fargo Center for the 2006 tournament's first round as their team put a major scare in UConn. Alas, Boomer Sooner.
WINNER: Oklahoma
This would be an extremely compelling football game. Unfortunately, SEC basketball doesn’t come close to living up to its football’s lofty standards. Outside of the one major exception, I am of the opinion that they stink as a hoops conference.
WINNER: Michigan State
Mercer scored a major upset over Duke for the Atlantic Sun when these two conferences met in the first round last year. There's very little America enjoys more than Coach K getting upset in the early rounds, a bipartisan issue if there every was one. As for this game, Belmont will keep things interesting for 25-30 minutes, but Virginia’s suffocating defense will eventually put the game out of reach.
WINNER: Virginia
The book on LSU is that they’re a talented group — The Tigers’ Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin would easily be the two best pro prospects on the floor — that has largely underachieved. I’ll take the overachievers, and I'll take them big.
WINNER: Villanova
In this scenario, Irvine is the classic “happy to be there” second-round mid-major that has used up all of its bullets. On the other hand, underseeded Northern Iowa expects to advance deep into the tourney. A standing O for Mamadou and the Anteaters wouldn't be misguided.
WINNER: Northern Iowa
As a conference, the Big East took a little too much criticism this year because no other team could match ‘Nova’s quality. There are still some very good teams in that league (or as Mike Mayock would say, "LIG"). To justify this pick, let’s utilize the good ol’ transitive property, which as we all know, never fails: Oklahoma lost to Creighton, who fell to Providence twice and sat at the bottom of the Big East standings.
WINNER: Providence
A rematch of last year’s Sweet 16, and I expect the result to be the same. Sparty just gave Wisconsin all it could handle in the Big 10 championship game, and if you weren't aware, Izzo is pretty difficult to beat in this month.
WINNER: Michigan State
A low-scoring slugfest could spell doom for Jay Wright’s team. Pace could be the key factor in this potential matchup: Villanova plays at a fairly average tempo, and Northern Iowa, a salt of the Earth Midwestern school, really likes to pump the brakes. The more possessions, the better chance the Wildcats have to win.
WINNER: Villanova
A nice run for the Friars, but it ends here against a group of players very familiar with this stage of March.
WINNER: Michigan State
Here's the point of the tournament where I believe Michigan State’s average defense finally rears its ugly head. ‘Nova hits a bunch of 3s early in the game and cruises in familiar territory at the Carrier Dome.
