Mailbag: Which Eagles players might overperform, underperform expectations?

The Philadelphia Eagles have trimmed their roster to 53 players and their first regular season game is less than a week away. With that in mind, let's answer some questions about the team and beyond. This is Part II of a two-part mailbag (Part I here).

Question from @barackchain: One player to overperform expectations, one player to underperform?

After watching Nakobe Dean make plays all summer, I feel like he has a chance to surprise some people who have already checked out on him. Then again, over the last dozen or so years of covering Eagles training camps I've seen plenty of linebackers make plays during the summer only to play poorly during the fall. Dean also has to prove that he can stay healthy. We'll see, but Dean had the best summer of his career, by far.

As for underperforming to expectations, it depends on whose expectations we're talking about. The team paid Bryce Huff $17 million per year, so it's going to be hard for him to prove that he is worth all that money. However, I'm not so sure fan expectations for Huff are super high. I do think there are some fans who think Mekhi Becton is going to come in and just start tossing guys around, but I think that his adjustment to a new position might not be so smooth initially.

Question from @Footba11Joe: Who are the two starting inside linebackers in Brazil, and which two linebackers do you think will start the most games by season's end?

Devin White, Zack Baun, and Dean are all going to play a good amount of snaps, and I'm curious to see what packages Vic Fangio and Bobby King have in mind for each of them. Which linebackers are on the field might be dependent on what personnel the Packers start the game with next Friday night, and might not necessarily be indicative of who the actual top two guys are.

I will say though that I thought that Dean had a better training camp than White. 

Question from @twitrunner8: What young defensive player not named Jalen Carter do you think has a chance to make the biggest impact?

I love Quinyon Mitchell's on-field temperament and think he has a chance to make plays right out of the gate. I'll imagine he'll give up his share of plays, too, at least early on.

He might start at outside corner and then shift inside to the slot in nickel. Huge role. They're putting a lot on his plate as a rookie, because they think he can handle it.

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On a side note, I thought the Eagles did an awful job of getting some of their rookie defensive players involved early on last season. Guys like Nolan Smith, Sydney Brown, and Kelee Ringo were sitting in favor of guys like Derek Barnett, Terrell Edmunds, Justin Evans, and Josh Jobe. Let the young guys get their feet wet.

I look at the Chiefs' 2022 season, when they had three rookies in their secondary in CB Trent McDuffie, CB Jaylen Watson, and S Bryan Cook, who all played a lot of snaps. By the time the playoffs came around, they were ready.

Question from @ChrisLuvGoBirds: Who is going to have a better NFL career - Nolan Smith or Jalyx Hunt?

Oof, it's interesting that this is actually a valid question.

Smith was considered a late first-round steal a year ago who had a quiet rookie season, and expectations heading into 2024 training camp were that he needed to take a significant step forward in Year 2. I didn't see that happen.

Hunt entered camp as a third-round developmental project from Houston Christian, unlikely to see the field much as a rookie behind four other edge defenders.

I thought Hunt was better in training camp. He was fast and physical, and played with confidence. It's really tough to guess on who will have the better NFL career before Hunt has ever even been active for a real NFL game, but I think his career is off to a better start than Smith's so far.

Question from @hubie1182: How concerned are you that Jordan Davis isn't elite and is maybe more of a Linval Joseph than a game changer?

When he was drafted, it was thought that Davis' floor was that he would be just a good run stuffer. However, even as a run defender he was very good in the first half of the 2023 season, but his play fell off down the stretch, with his physical fitness coming into question.

In addition to his stamina concerns, Davis has not yet developed into the pass rushing force that he could be with the extremely rare size-athleticism combination that he was blessed with. I just haven't seen much of a pass rushing repertoire from him in his first two seasons in Philly, or this summer.

It typically takes interior defensive linemen a little longer to become great players than it does for players at other positions, but the time for him to break out and realize his massive potential is soon going to be past due.

Question from @ChipReiderson: Tio Jimmy, reverence as always. Am I foolish to be concerned that the Eagles are doubling down on a defensive system that it appears most of the league’s playcallers and QBs have solved?

By my count, five "branches" off the Fangio tree — plus Fangio himself — ran NFL defenses last season. Here's how those guys fared in defensive DVOA in 2023:

• Joe Woods, Saints: 15th
• Vic Fangio, Dolphins: 19th
• Brandon Staley, Chargers: 26th
• Joe Barry, Packers: 27th
• Sean Desai, Eagles: 29th
• Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals: 32nd

Maybe those Fangio disciples just aren't very good. Maybe there's so much of Fangio's defense out there that teams spent way more time preparing for it than if it were just Fangio running it. Maybe going up against it so much made quarterbacks better at handling it. Maybe it's a combination of all of those things, and it's just "solved," as you put it.

What's also true is that fewer teams will be running Fangio's defense in 2024 because half of those guys above got fired.

It'll be interesting to see if Fangio can adjust/reinvent his scheme, but to answer your question, no, you're not crazy for having that concern.

Question from @DaveFash2: In the past when Hurts went down the RPO game suffered. Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee are obviously dropoffs from Hurts but which of them give the Eagles the best chance of running the offense without having to throw out a big chunk of the playbook?

Pickett is more mobile than McKee, so he can do more in terms of being a threat with his legs, though obviously he's not exactly Lamar Jackson. But I actually think that the offensive playbook would be more constricted with Pickett at quarterback because the Eagles would lose the vertical element of their passing attack. McKee is a better passer than Pickett in the intermediate-to-deeper areas of the field. 

Question from @ftandru: Who is more likely to catch a pass this year? Ben VanSumeren or Albert Okwuegbunam?

Ooh, I like that one.

In case you missed it, VanSumeren hinted at potentially having some kind of role on offense after the Eagles' final preseason game against the Vikings.

Meanwhile, Albert O. stuck on the 53-man roster all year in 2023 and had zero catches.  This year, he'll start the season on injured reserve. 

Begrudgingly, I'll take Albert O.

Question from @DrewSportsNews: If you could pick 5 NFL teams -- and if one of those teams wins the Super Bowl, you get $100,000 -- which 5 teams would you choose?

Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Lions, and Bills, in that order. I'd have the Bengals 6th, and the Eagles 7th.

Question from @BadgerVMD: A recent “criticism” of Howie floating around nationally along with the hipster NFL content creator community is his praise stems from acquiring talent with name value (Georgia players, etc.). Fair to question this strategy, or overblown?

I'm curious who specifically is saying that. Since he re-became the GM in 2016, some of his first picks have come from North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Washington State (only first rounder from WSU in the last 10 drafts), and Toledo. Two of his first three picks this year were from Toledo and Houston Christian. Hell, Quinyon Mitchell was the only first-round pick this year not from a power conference (or Notre Dame). Howie isn't above criticism, but it's not worth deciding if this particular "criticism" is valid when I think the premise is so stupid.