August 10, 2021

Mailbag: What is your prediction for the Eagles' 2021 record?

By Jimmy Kempski
PhillyVoice Staff

In our Eagles chat on Monday, there were a lot of questions that we could not get to in time or other questions we did answer but could use more color. And so, let's do a mailbag post to answer some of the overflow, as well as some commonly asked questions on Twitter and via email.

Question from 2016 all over again: Across the board, after two or so weeks of camp, is your outlook on the team more positive than before camp?

It is not. I feel better about the defense, but I have not been encouraged by what I have seen so far from the offense.

The Eagles' path to success this season is in the trenches. If the offensive line can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a top 5 type of unit. Of course, with so many aging players on that line, and with the injury histories of those players, that's a big "if." And then if the Eagles can stay in games and allow the pass rush to be a factor, then I think they can be disruptive.

But ultimately, I feel less optimistic about this season than I have for any other since I started covering the team full time in 2013.

I'll have a more comprehensive projection when we're closer to the start of the regular season, but I'm at 6-11, for now.

Question from jlinpv: The decreased practice time for the sake of health seems perfectly logical on the surface and nobody wants a repeat of last year. But how likely is it that at least some of the offense's slow start is attributable to a decreased number of reps?

I think that's a fair question. Nick Sirianni's argument would be that the team's practices are efficient, and they make the best possible use of the time they are on the field. While that may be true, they could certainly maintain that level of efficiency while also getting more reps in longer practices.

(I do think that staying healthy is the most important thing.)

Question from Flip-a-del-phia: Any guess to Sirianni's game management style? Do you think he will be like Doug and go for it often on 4th? Do you think he will be like Andy and burn timeouts for no reason? Any other expectations we should be looking forward to?

During games, Doug Pederson had an analytics nerd feeding him information, such as recommendations on whether or not to go for it on fourth down, and then Doug would ultimately have the final call on the field. Sirianni will also have someone in his ear, so I think you'll see that the Eagles will continue to be among the more aggressive teams in terms of fourth down decisions and other calls that have traditionally (and wrongly) been thought of as "risky."

As far as how good Sirianni will be from a time management perspective, your guess is as good as mine.

Question from Concrete Charlie: From the reports the fans are seeing, it looks like Dillard is getting his back side handed to him at camp. If so, do you see him getting cut?

I would be absolutely stunned if the Eagles cut a guy they traded up for in the first round of the draft two years ago, no matter how bad he might look in training camp.

Would they trade him? Sure.

Question from DeezNuts: Who do you think has had / will have a quiet camp/preseason but will ball out during the season? My picks are Travis Fulgham & Derek Barnett.

I think Miles Sanders could be that guy. Yes, he has struggled catching the football, but there has been no lack of effort from him in trying to fix that. And he has looked good as a pure runner.

On a side note, I think that Barnett has played well so far this summer. He has merely been overshadowed a bit by Josh Sweat, who has been on a tear.

Question from Question: How are the linebackers looking? I feel like they’ve been a bit under discussed as a position group?

I like what I have seen from Eric Wilson so far. He seems to be in the right spots, and is always around the football. Extremely low bar here, but he will be a major upgrade over Nate Gerry. Beyond Wilson, I believe that Alex Singleton can build on his breakout season a year ago, and I really like T.J. Edwards in a run down role.

And then you have younger guys like Davion Taylor, Shaun Bradley, and JaCoby Stevens. Taylor and Stevens are unfortunately out with injuries, so that could slow their progress and hamper their chances of contributing early this season, but all three of those guys still have a chance to show something.

I don't think the Eagles have any All-Pro players there, but it's a competent group, with some upside, which is better than what they've had in recent years.

Question from Scojos: Does Tyree Jackson have the Na Brown award locked up? It sounds like Quez Watkins and Jason Huntley are making daily splash plays but it’s tough to beat a 6’7’’ skill player.

If you aren't familiar with the yearly "Na Brown Award," it is the title awarded to the Eagles player who comes out of almost nowhere to cause a big stir at camp and raises his expectations unreasonably high in the process. Back in the early Donovan McNabb days, Na Brown was a camp stud who got a lot of hype but ultimately failed to live up to his heightened expectations.

It has become somewhat of a negative thing to earn, because more often than not, the hype eventually turns the player into a disappointment. But for now, it means one thing — that the player is doing good things and getting noticed.

Previous winners include guys like Hank Baskett, Riley Cooper, Lorenzo Booker, Henry Josey, Paul Turner, Marken Michel, Mack Hollins, etc.

Jackson is the clear early favorite for the Na Brown Award in 2021, but doing good things in practice and having the media tell you all about it isn't enough. He has to show up in the preseason games for all to see, too.

Question from Howie Roseman Fan Club President: When Hurts was drafted, the Eagles said they thought he could be a long term back-up. If they were to acquire another QB like Deshaun Watson or draft a quarterback high next year, could Hurts go back to being a long term backup, or is it once you start a guy he's considered a starter and will demand a trade to compete for a starting job elsewhere?

There are lots of examples of quarterbacks who were starters, then lost their starting jobs, and became backups. It happens a lot. I don't necessarily think that those guys have achieved a status level that they are forever starters once they're broken that barrier. However, I can certainly imagine that it would be difficult for quarterbacks who became starters to stay with the team that benched them.

For example, a quick list of guys who recently lost their starting jobs or saw their team draft their replacement, and then soon after landed with other teams — Carson Wentz (Eagles) Nick Foles (Jaguars), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Dwayne Haskins (Washington), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Sam Darnold (Jets), Tyrod Taylor (Chargers), etc.

And coming soon, Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers).

So yes, if indeed the Eagles traded for or drafted a replacement for Hurts, I would imagine that Hurts would soon after land on some other team's roster.

Question from Colorado Chris: Does the Derek Barnett's dummy year restructure almost ensure they have to sign him to a new deal before he hits free agency? That's a soft commitment for the future, right? No way they take those future year cap hits for a guy to walk right?

Nope. There's essentially no change for the Eagles in terms of future commitment to Barnett as a result of that restructure.

Barnett was set to count for $10,051,000 on the 2021 salary cap, which was fully guaranteed salary. All the Eagles did was take $9,061,000 of that salary and convert it into a prorated bonus, lowering his actual salary in 2021 to $990,000.

They then took the $9,061,000 newly created signing bonus and spread that evenly ($1,812,200 each season) over five seasons — 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. That gives them some short term flexibility, but Barnett was going to count for $10,051,000 no matter what. Any unused portion of the cap space generated from that restructure will simply carry over into next year's salary cap.

I do think they'll ultimately get something done with Barnett (we'll see), but the restructure is not much of an indicator of future commitment in this case.

Question from Pete: If the Eagles do end up trading for DeShaun Watson (please please dont), (a) what do you think the comp is, and (b) does the team know something about his legal situation that would make them comfortable with this?

I can't answer the part about the team feeling comfortable with it, but certainly Dom DiSandro, AKA Big Dom (the Eagles' Chief Security Officer) knows a hell of a lot more about his legal situation then you and me.

As for compensation, at the present time, it would have to be a deep discount, given the uncertainty. I would guess a 1 next year, and an assortment of other lesser picks and/or players.

Question from Carson’s jersey: Help me understand why players care so much about jersey numbers. Why is it such a big deal that a WR have a jersey number in the single digits? It all seems kind of inconsequential to me.

Jersey numbers are huge! To this day, I remember being on the varsity grade school basketball team in 7th grade, and all the 8th graders had first choice of jersey numbers. I got stuck with 11, which for me equated to Isaiah Thomas, a player I hated at the time. It was devastating, lol.

First chance I got the next season I exchanged it for 21 (Dominique Wilkins). That was over 30 years ago, and I still remember that.

And then I remember even in Marlton Rec Council (the crappy in-town league where there were two good players per team, at the time), the lower numbers (1-4, for example) were smaller shirts, and the bigger numbers (we'll say, 8-10) were larges. I didn't care. 3 was my favorite number, so I just had a super tight shirt.

Question from RKotite: When you take long pauses during the chat to answer a question, is it because you are thoughtfully trying to provide the greatest depth of analysis possible, or did you just run out of Cheetos and are running to the pantry?

It's both!

Question from Dustin14: Huge supporter of your work and the Eagles stick figures are amazing. Have you ever considered a fan meet and greet at an Eagles game? Or had an Eagles chat in podcast version just to hear us live asking the question?

Thanks! We should probably do a meetup, maybe sometime in between free agency and the draft. Curious if the folks in the comment section here would go to that.

Question from Office Linebacker: Olympic surfing competition is in Tahiti in 2024. What would you say your chances are to make the USA team?

Ooh, Tahiti, huh? That’s probably Teahupo’o. (Let me check.) Yep, Teahupo’o. This is Teahupo’o: