Mailbag: What are the chances Saquon Barkley could be a bust for the Eagles?

On Tuesday we solicited questions for an Eagles mailbag via Twitter or whatever it's called now. Thank you as always for doing half the work for me. This is Part II of a two-part mailbag (Part I here).

Question from @dirtydickcheney: Is there a better-than-even chance that Saquon Barkley is going to be a bust? How many running backs go on to have a resurgence with a second team after showing consistent declining numbers?

I'm not so sure I agree that he has had "consistent declining numbers." In 2022, he had the second-best season of his career, and carried a bad a team to the playoffs.

I'm also not so sure I'd call a good season with the Eagles in 2024 a "resurgence." His numbers weren't impressive last season, but they could have been a hell of a lot worse considering he was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in NFL history (no hyperbole there). In Philly, he'll be running behind the best offensive line he has ever had in his career, by far. 

That said, there is risk in signing a 27-year-old running back with a significant injury history to a top of the market deal. But Barkley can still play, and I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't significantly upgrade the Eagles' rushing attack, at least in his first year. What he'll be in 2025 and 2026 is probably the bigger concern.

Question from @cncnick94: Is Quinyon Mitchell a 100 percent lock to start opposite Darius Slay?

Nope, he's going to have to earn it, and he'll have legitimate competition from Isaiah Rodgers and Kelee Ringo.

Rodgers in particular looked really impressive in spring practices, and I like his chances of pulling off an upset.

Question from @reddog2188: Bigger issue: Edge or iDL?

My concern with the interior of the defensive line is that the two best players — Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis — had conditioning issues last season, and in Davis' case, "slimming down" to 350 isn't exactly inspiring confidence in me that he will be able to play a high number of snaps at a high level when the Eagles need him to in December and January. If the Eagles are going to be Super Bowl contenders, those guys are going to have to be at the top of their games down the stretch and in the playoffs. We haven't seen that yet, so I guess I'm just kind of waiting to see it before I feel confident that that will happen. Beyond the iDL starters, the depth is as shaky as it has been in years.

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On the edges, Bryce Huff and Josh Sweat are both good pass rushers, but they are also incomplete players. Huff could be a liability against the run, and Sweat probably showed last year that if he plays too many snaps he will be less effective. Add in that Brandon Graham isn't going to play a ton of snaps at his age and the Eagles really need to see something from Nolan Smith this season. Can he play? We'll see. I do think it'll be easier to add an edge rusher at the trade deadline than it will be along the interior, if it's looking like the edge rushers just aren't getting the job done. It's also probably worth noting that the Eagles have a pair of off-ball linebackers in Devin White and Zack Baun with some pass rushing chops, so Vic Fangio has some opportunity to be creative in generating pressure even if the edge rushers aren't performing at a high level.

So put me down for the interior being a bigger concern.

Question from @BirdsfaninKS: What can we really expect with a CEO coach? People always point to John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, but they haven't won a Super Bowl in over a decade.

In the last 10 years, Tom Brady has four rings, and Andy Reid / Patrick Mahomes have three, so it's not as if there have been a lot of rings to go around. 

And, I mean, we can all agree that Tomlin and Harbaugh are both very successful coaches, right? Tomlin (173-100-2) hasn't ever had a losing season in 17 seasons as a head coach. Harbaugh (160-99-0) has had just two losing records in 16 seasons. And they both have rings, even if not super recent ones. But they're both top 5 coaches, right?

I don't know what it'll look like with Nick Sirianni as a "CEO coach," but I do think the players and the staff respect him, and even with the epic collapse last season, he actually has a better career winning percentage than Harbaugh and Tomlin. He has a lot to prove this season, and I don't know how it will all work out, but I don't think the idea of a "CEO coach" needs to be scary.

Question from @Flyenglishfly19: Who do you think is the biggest trade target in the DB room, taking into account age and who might also be the "odd man out?"

This is well-covered ground here, but it's James Bradberry (more on that here, if you're interested). Beyond Bradberry, the Eagles have a lot of depth at corner. They'd no doubt be open to trading Eli Ricks or Josh Jobe, but you're not going to get much in return for guys like that. Maybe a fifth or sixth DT? I don't think they're getting you a competent WR3, for example.

Question from Justin (via email): Why is James Bradberry still on the roster? Do you think they’ll move him to safety? If they plan to cut him, aren’t they doing him a disservice by keeping him on the roster at this point?

From the Eagles' perspective, what's the rush to cut him? The Eagles have to do what is best for the Eagles, and if there is any chance that they can get something in return for Bradberry while also getting some other team to take on his small guaranteed salary, then why not wait and see if some team loses a cornerback to injury and comes calling? 

As for a potential move to safety, Sirianni mentioned that Bradberry would be getting a look at safety during spring practices. But Bradberry skipped voluntary OTAs and on the first day of a mandatory minicamp, he went to the medical tent almost immediately after the start of practice, and did not return for the rest of that camp, with no explanation from the team on what happened to him. So, we'll see if Bradberry participates in training camp in any meaningful way, and if so, where that will be, I guess.

Question from Scott (via email): What do the careers of the highly drafted centers look like? Go back 10 or so years, and see what happens with the top few picks at center. Jurgens was 51st overall, but that was probably the top three of that draft class. Can we learn something from history?

Here's a list of every center drafted in the first or second round in the last 15 years (not counting 2024), and how many games they started as rookies, as well as how many Pro Bowls and All-Pro nods each received:

As you can see, when teams draft centers highly, they almost always play immediately, barring injury. The Eagles are an outlier, in that they were willing to draft a center and have him apprentice for a year. 

Also, as you can see, if you draft a center highly, they usually become longtime starters. Almost half of the guys above made at least one Pro Bowl, and some of the guys who haven't yet probably will at some point. 

Centers could perhaps be considered "safe" picks, in that their bust rates are low, but it's also rare that centers are true difference makers, like Jason Kelce was. 

Question from @RickP25057744: The Eagles seem to have lots of decent cornerbacks now, and at least two top shelf wide receivers. What’s the matchup you’re most looking forward to in practice?

I'll be curious to see how Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean fare against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But what this question made me realize is that I'll have to be careful throughout camp handing out gold stars to corners for locking up guys like Parris Campbell.

Last year, for example, Dallas Goedert was unstoppable in camp, and I thought he had some potential for a monster season. But he was amazing in camp partly because the Eagles didn't have any linebackers who could cover.

Question from @MartinWrote: Who is your pick for the Paul Turner award, AKA the training camp MVP who won’t do anything in a real game?

That would be the "Na Brown Award" for the old heads. 

People are suckers for oversized receivers, so I'll go with Johnny Wilson.