Mailbag: The five most likely players the Eagles will draft in the first round

On Thursday we solicited questions for an Eagles mailbag via Twitter or whatever it's called now. Thank you as always for doing half the work for me. This will be Part I of a two-part mailbag. Let's just get right to it.

Question from @JackDespeaux: If you had to guess now, who is a player in the draft that will be an Eagle?

I'll narrow it down to five players, for now, in no particular order, with the disclaimer that I reserve the right to change my mind several times between now and draft day.

• Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia: Mims only has 8 career starts, so he may not be the right flavor for teams looking for an immediate starter at OT. He could slide. But from a traits perspective, Mims has perhaps as high an upside as any offensive tackle in this draft, and the Eagles would have time to develop him. The downside is that he may not offer guard versatility and would likely sit for at long as Lane Johnson continues to lace up his cleats.

• JC Latham, OT, Alabama: Latham fits more of the "RG of the present, RT of the future" mold, and is thought to be more of a finished product than guys like Mims or Oklahoma's Tyler Guyton.

• Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama: Physical, tough former safety who moved to corner, with inside-outside versatility and good ball skill numbers. He'd quickly be a Philly favorite, in my opinion.

• Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: Small school guy with elite ball skills. Inside-outside versatility, just like with Arnold.

• Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa: Ultra-versatile defensive back who can play corner, safety, slot corner, dime linebacker, and was even an elite returner in college.

Oh and in most scenarios I think they’ll trade up.

Question from @Fritz_Tastik: Patrick Surtain is just not happening, right?

This is going back a few years and maybe the expectation for compensation has changed some along the way, but I look at the 2019 Jalen Ramsey trade from the Jaguars to the Rams as sort of a benchmark.

In that deal, which happened during the 2019 season (which also maybe changes the calculus some), the Rams sent first-round picks in 2020 and 2021 as well as a fourth-round pick in 2021 to the Jags.

Ramsey was considered the best corner in the NFL at the time by some, not unlike Surtain now (again, by some). Ramsey was in his fourth season, Surtain is heading into his fourth season. 

If the compensation is a pair of first-round picks plus a gigantic new contract, my guess is that Howie wouldn't pull the trigger on that. It's perhaps worth noting that deals for Haason Reddick, L'Jarius Snead, and Brian Burns netted those players' former teams less in trade compensation than most would have expected, so maybe the cost for Surtain wouldn't be as high as a pair of 1's? I really don't know.

If the Eagles take a big swing on a trade for a vet, I do think it would be at cornerback. Ultimately, a trade for Surtain is unlikely, but I wouldn't completely rule out something like that.

Question from @RichAndrew: How do some of the Eagles' possible Day 1 or Day 2 picks at certain positions of ‘need’ like OL/CB stack up against same players at the same positions selected with high picks in recent drafts? Interested to see how you think they compare. Thanks Jimmy.

As I've mentioned here a few times during draft season, my understanding is that the Eagles had interest in CBs Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn in the 2021 draft. They also had interest in CBs Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley in the 2022 draft. But in both cases, those guys all came off the board pretty quickly, so the Eagles went in different directions.

• MORE EAGLES
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• The Eagles' offense is (mostly) set for the next few years
  
• 7 takeaways from Howie Roseman's and Nick Sirianni's pre-draft press conference
  

I like Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell in this draft, but in my opinion they are not as strong of prospects as Surtain, Horn, Gardner, and Stingley were when those guys came out. I'm curious if the Eagles view it that way as well (I would imagine they do), and whether they will be motivated to make an aggressive play for somewhat lesser — but still very good — CB prospects.

Arnold came in for a pre-draft visit, so the Eagles are at least doing some significant homework on him.

Question from @rob_aden: The Eagles love picking mid-round quarterbacks. With the addition of Kenny Pickett, do you think they still will for this upcoming draft?

I got a surprising number of questions about the Eagles potentially drafting a Day 2 quarterback. I don't think we'll see any surprises this year like we did when the Eagles selected Jalen Hurts in the second round of the 2020 draft. At the time of that draft, the Eagles' depth at quarterback looked like this:

Sudfeld was the QB2, and I don't think there was ever a time the Eagles felt comfortable with Sud as the primary backup. While the Eagles may have had concerns about Wentz at the time, part of the equation for drafting Hurts was that he would pretty clearly fill in as the QB2.

In 2024, the Eagles' quarterback depth looks like this:

Pickett will head into camp as the favorite to back up Hurts, McKee will challenge Pickett, and Grier is the camp arm. While you can never bet against the QB Factory™️, there are no known concerns with Hurts within the Eagles' building, and there's less room to fit another quarterback onto the roster than there was in 2020.

Question from @MistaMastah: What’s the position other than QB, K, P, or LS you’d most easily bet the house on the Eagles NOT drafting in the first 3 rounds?

The Eagles love them some defensive tackles, so I would never "bet the house" on the Eagles not taking one, but it's a weak defensive tackle draft, and the Eagles already have so many young DTs on the roster already in Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, Moro Ojomo, Marlon Tuipulotu, PJ Mustipher, etc. Williams is the old guy of that group, at 25.

Question from @NachosVegas: With the recent locker location news how comfortable do you think the Eagles are with Tyler Steen at RG next season?

For those of you who don't know what Nachos is referencing, the Eagles gave Jason Kelce's old locker room stall to Cam Jurgens, and Jurgens' stall went to Steen.

In the back right corner of the Eagles' locker room at the NovaCare Complex, there are five locker room stalls, which are usually occupied by the five starting offensive linemen. Those five stalls are sort of on their own, because a doorway to a lounge area (where they have ping pong, pool tables, etc.) separates those five stalls from the rest of the offensive linemen.

Those five locker room stalls are usually in line order, too. For example, last year, LT Jordan Mailata's stall was in the far back right of the locker room, followed by LG Landon Dickerson, C Jason Kelce, RG Cam Jurgens, and RT Lane Johnson.

I actually do think that's good for Steen's brand. The team could have very easily just kept Steen at his old locker away from the cool kids, but they promoted him, so to speak. Does that mean that he can't lose a camp battle to Matt Hennessy or some drafted rookie? I mean, obviously not, lol. But I do view that as some tangible evidence that he will be given a strong opportunity to win that job, silly as that may sound.

Question from @Philly_Bul215: What’s the highest you see the Eagles moving up to on draft night? Top 15? I think Seattle at 16 is the sweet spot.

I agree that Seattle is the sweet spot for a trade up. If the Eagles were to get to that spot, at least one of JC Latham, Amarius Mims, Terrion Arnold, or Quinyon Mitchell should be available. In my opinion, those are the four players the Eagles are most likely to make a modest move up for. But also: 

• Howie is boys with Seattle GM John Schneider, and they've done their fair share of deals.

• The Seahawks don't have a second-round pick, and the trade chart works out nicely for the following kind of swap:

Maybe the Eagles would have to sweeten that with one of their 5's or something if they really liked a player they were targeting? But that scenario just seems to work, in my opinion.

Question from @austinwullsch: You've talked about DT being a position that rookies don't contribute right away. But what positions are rookies most likely to contribute at early?

Running back has always been a position where rookies can have immediate success. And then I think almost sort of counterintuitively cornerbacks have recently had quick success as well.

Question from PreMoveObserver: Could you run us through a draft day in the life of Jimmy Kempski?

Thursday through Saturday are by far the three busiest days of the year for me, and it's not even close. Friday and Saturday are hectic because they're making more picks on those days. Saturday in particular is basically a writing marathon. I just put together a plan of attack for draft weekend, and I have 25 articles forecasted for those three days, in addition to updating some of my static posts such as our depth chart, 2024 / 2025 / 2026 draft pick trackers, my draft board, etc. I usually go over the forecasted number due to unforeseen news, so I'll very likely have somewhere closer to 30 articles in three days. And then even on Sunday there's a lot of wrap-up stuff I'll get to like undrafted free agents and draft grades, for example.

As for what it all looks like, I'm basically just parked at my desk in my office watching on a little 32" TV next to my monitor. It's a pretty unsexy setup. 

A lot of coffee is consumed throughout the weekend, and I'll have some drinks on Saturday night after the draft is wrapped and my UDFAs are good to go for the morning.

Question from Jimmy Kempski for Mark Dominik: There are fewer underclassmen in this draft than there have been in over a decade, and therefore it’s considered not to be a deep draft. I guess first of all, do you agree with that, and if so, at what points in the draft do you foresee drop-offs in talent?

Former Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik held a conference call for SiriusXM, and took questions from reporters. I asked the above question. Dominik's answer:

"I think there's 23 guys that probably are first-round talents. Where I think the draft starts to fall apart a little bit — I think because cornerback is a little deeper, I think because wide receiver is a little deeper, and offensive line is really deep — I think the mid-third round is where it starts to get a little dicey."

If indeed there is a dropoff after the 23rd player, the Eagles — picking at 22 — have to worry about players picked closer to 23 not fitting their needs. I've consistently maintained that I strongly believe that Howie Roseman will try to trade up for a cornerback or an offensive tackle, and the notion that there is a dropoff at around 23 only further cements that for me.

As for the dropoff in talent around the mid-third round, Roseman already traded a late third-round (comp pick) for Kenny Pickett and a fourth-round pick. I'd guess it's a decent bet that Howie shares the sentiment that the talent pool is likely to have dried up a bit where they were picking late in the third or he wouldn't have given up that pick.

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