Mailbag: Can the Eagles catch the Lions for the 1 seed in the NFC?

With the Eagles on their mini-bye, now feels like a good time to answer some questions, solicited from readers on Twitter and Bluesky. This will be Part I of a two-part mailbag.

Question from @aerelorn: Based on the remaining Lions/Eagles schedules, what do you think are the chances of passing them for the 1 seed?

Each team's remaining schedules, hard games bolded:

In my opinion, each team has 4 hard games remaining. The difference is that three of the Lions' hard games are at home, while three of the Eagles' hard games are on the road.

But the beyond the schedules, the Lions are thrashing teams right now. For what it's worth, Inpredictable gives the following 1 seed odds:

• Lions: 73%
• Eagles: 15%
• Vikings: 8%
• Packers: 2%
• Commanders: 2%

That feels about right to me.

Question from @footba11joe.bsky.social‬: Mekhi Becton, Fred Johnson, Josh Sweat, Zach Baun, and Milton Williams are all scheduled to be free agents at the end of the year. Who is most likely to receive a new contract and who is likely a cap casualty?

Mekhi Becton: The Eagles are already paying big money to Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Lane Johnson, and coming soon, Cam Jurgens. Becton is going to get offers in free agency next offseason. With Tyler Steen filling in capably enough whenever he has been needed, it feels likely that Becton will get an offer that will outpace what the Eagles can/will spend at a fifth offensive line spot.

• MORE EAGLES
• Which Eagles players could win NFL awards this season?
  
• The Eagles' six-game win streak to the top of the NFC East by the numbers
  
• The 2024 Eagles just feel different from last year's version
  

Fred Johnson: Johnson was up-and-down while replacing Mailata, and while he didn't wreck games I also wouldn't exactly say that he played well enough that some team out there is going to pay him to be a starter. The Eagles should be able to bring him back at a low cost if they want.

Josh Sweat: The Eagles dangled Sweat on the trade block and got him to take a pay cut. There has to be damaged feelings there. Sweat is on pace for double-digit sacks, and I imagine that he'll be eager to see what his worth is on the open market.

Zack Baun: The Eagles should absolutely be looking to bring Baun back, like they did after Nigel Bradham had surprisingly good seasons in Philly in 2016 and 2017.

Milton Williams: I'm a little surprised something with Williams hasn't already gotten done. Then again, good interior defensive linemen get paid. Perhaps Williams and his representation aren't interested in taking an early-deal discount and want to test the market. But if Williams leaves the Eagles will have to replace him with someone else, because they don't have a surplus of interior linemen. They may as well just get something done with him, as long as the asking price isn't too objectionable.

Question from @HipsterEagle: Is Zack Baun a prime franchise tag candidate? I doubt Howie Roseman wants to “buy high” given the level Baun is playing at right now, but I can’t see a situation where he just lets him walk either.

Linebacker is the second-highest positional group among 2025 franchise tag projections. 

Franchise tag figures are based on the top five salaries at each respective position, and because lot of edge rushers around the NFL are listed as linebackers, the projected franchise tag for linebackers is over $27 million. So, no, I can say with supreme confidence that the Eagles will not be franchise tagging Baun. I do think that they will pay him decent money to stay, and Baun would also be wise to want to stay in the scheme where he is having a lot of success. 

Question from @iraapfel.bsky.social‬: What would a Zack Baun contract look like?

The Eagles signed Baun to a one-year deal worth $3.5 million, so it wasn't like teams around the league were banging down his door 8 months ago in free agency. He has had an outstanding season, but he only has one year out of five in his career as a productive starter.

He's going to make significantly more in 2025, but there are only 10 off-ball linebackers in the NFL who are making more than $10 million per season. I would view $10 million per year as a benchmark that (a) Baun and his representation can feel good about, and (b) won't impede the Eagles from doing the other things they will want to do in free agency in the spring.

Question from @NBW69: What are the chances Micah Parsons ends up in Philly after his rookie contract is up? Would Howie be able to afford him?

Parsons is scheduled to play on his fifth-year option next year, and I can't imagine he'll be happy doing so. He is very likely to get a long-term deal done in Dallas before the start of the 2025 season, even if Jerry Jones unnecessarily drags it out all offseason. If a long-term deal doesn't get done and Parsons plays on his fifth-year option (again, I can't see how that'll go over well), the Cowboys would surely franchise tag him in 2026, assuming he is still a great player. And again, I can't imagine Parsons will be happy about that either, which increases the odds even further for a long-term deal before he'd ever sniff free agency. 

If the two sides faced an impasse that could not be bridged and the Cowboys were willing to trade him, don't count on them dealing him to a division rival. In other words, as long as Parsons remains a great player, he isn't going to be an Eagle anytime remotely soon.

Question from @thatdudepb.bsky.social‬: Jalen Hurts 20 rushing TDs, how real is the possibility?

He has 11, which puts him on pace for 18.7. There have been an abnormal number of times players (mainly Saquon Barkley) have been tackled at the 1, and the Eagles (rightfully) just Brotherly Shove it in from there. There's also the possibility that the Eagles will be locked into a specific playoff seed prior to Week 18, which would eliminate a game that Hurts plays in. 

So I don't think 20 TDs is likely. Hurts already owns a piece of the record for most rushing TDs in a season by a quarterback, with 15, which he accomplished last year. He has a good chance to break his own record this year.

Question from @saxncymbals.bsky.social‬: Will Britain Covey be back anytime soon and is it worth taking Cooper DeJean away from his punt return duties when that happens?

Covey broke a bone in his shoulder. He said at the time that he would be out "at least" six weeks. So far he has been out eight weeks. He should be able to return soon, I imagine. And yes, Covey is an awesome returner, so when he is healthy he should resume his "starting" returner role, which would allow DeJean to focus full-time on his spot in the slot, which should also make Vic Fangio happy that DeJean is not at risk for injury on special teams.

Question from @abrad45.bsky.social‬: Seems like DeJean routinely fair catches punts inside the 10. Is that what ST Coordinators are coaching these days? If so, why? Seems worth risking the few yards and hoping for a touchback.

I think it all depends on the situation. Are they punting from the 50? In that case, the punter can hit a punt with hangtime, and try to land it in a way that it'll check up like they're hitting a pitching wedge. The gunners also have a much better chance at getting behind the returner and keeping it out of the end zone. 

If they're punting from their own 35, for example, and they hit a bomb, in that case, you're looking to field punts inside the 10 and return them because the gunners typically won't be down the field that far that fast. I think you'd probably have to go case-by-case on those, but it's really not that uncommon for guys to fair catch punts inside to 10 these days with how good punters have become. You certainly don't want to fair catch anything inside the 5, obviously.

Question from @djunderh2o: How much of a pseudo-advantage is the lack of travel for the last 6 weeks? Nothing more than a short train ride after this Rams game.

I was curious if I had that in my schedule advantages/disadvantages article after the schedule was initially announced, and... yep!

• The Eagles won't board a plane after Week 12. They'll also play four of their last five games at home, including their last two. They won't be travel-weary for their first playoff matchup, should they get there.

I re-read through that post, and one of the "disadvantages" I identified was the Week 5 bye, which ultimately ended up being an advantage, as the team needed to work through some of their early-season issues.

They were dealt a pretty favorable schedule this season.

Question from @BenzZReeve: After EVERY extra point/field goal, why is there a slow-motion zoomed in replay of the holder catching, spinning & finger holding the ball? What are the finer points of this that we should be appreciating?

I love this question, and I actually watch that closely whenever they show what you're describing. Long snappers have become extremely precise, not just in terms of snapping accurately to a spot, but also in the number of revolutions on the way back to the holder.

Ideally, the long snapper will put 3.5 revolutions on the football so that when the ball reaches the holder, he can put the ball down, laces out. You do not want to have to spin the ball these days. Back in 2017, I took my own slow motion video of Jon Dorenbos snapping during practice. Notice that he has the laces down on the snap, he puts a perfect 3.5 revolutions on the football, and my boy Donnie Jones can place the ball down with no need for a spin.

It's not just kickers who are far better than they used to be. The entire failed goal / PAT operation has improved.

Follow Jimmy & PhillyVoice on Twitter: @JimmyKempski | thePhillyVoice

Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports

Add Jimmy's RSS feed to your feed reader