February 21, 2024
Kate Frese/For PhillyVoice
Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies need to figure out September.
Think you and your group chat — and Philly sports talk radio — are the only places where people argue about Philadelphia Sports?
We at PhillyVoice do it every day.
Which is why we think it might be fun to share our grievances and takes with our readers every week, to see who you all think has a better handle on the many issues plaguing the minds of sports fanatics in this sports-crazed town.
To kick things off, the eternal debate.
Evan Macy (managing sports editor): Spring training is under way, the games start soon, and I still absolutely positively am going crazy over the likelihood that Kyle Schwarber will be the Phillies leadoff man again in 2024.
Nick Tricome (staff writer, Flyers beat writer): I'm not. Bring on the leadoff Schwarbombs!
Shamus Clancy (deputy sports editor): Yes, it's bad that the Phillies are hitting a lot of home runs and winning a lot of baseball games with Schwarber leading the way the last two seasons.
The fascination with batting average instead of on-base percentage makes me think we're in 1997.
Schwarber's OPS leading off games in 2023 was 1.056 across 108 games. Shohei Ohtani's OPS for the entire 2023 season was 1.066. His OPS leading off innings (234 plate appearances in 136 games) was .901 in 2023. Bryce Harper's OPS for 2023 was .900 for comparisons' sake. Those rates for Schwarber are way higher than his overall OPS as a Phillie (.822) these last two seasons.
For the argument of Schwarber, and this team overall, swinging too much early in the count, Schwarber had an OPS of .906 in 116 plate appearances when he swung at the first pitch last season. His OPS drops to .782 when he takes the pitch. See the ball. Hit the ball. Send the ball to Mars.
I'll end with vibes being the most important thing in baseball... The Phillies moved Schwarber out of the leadoff spot last May. They reinserted him into the top of the batting order on June 2. They had struggled before then, going just 25-31. They finished the season on a 63-41, a 98-win pace.
Nick: And him at the top can immediately flip everything on its head in a single pitch. We forget now because of how it ended, but Game 1 of the NLCS was a massive jolt right from the word go.
Shamus: It’s utterly demoralizing.
Evan: Last year Phillies leadoff hitters were 28th in hits, had the second most strikeouts, had not only the 29th best batting average but also the 22nd best on base percentage. But yes they also had the third most homers and 7th most RBI.
Schwarber hit 34 homers when he was first in the batting order. He turned those into 77 RBI. That means that he was driving in runs with the 8-9 hole hitters ahead of him. It's simple math, bat Schwarber 4th, and he drives in Harper and Turner, who are on base more. It's more runs.
Shamus: That’s not simple math.
Evan: It is! More base runners for him!
Shamus: People will pitch him differently if he’s not hitting lead off. You’re being forced to pitch to the NL’s biggest home run threat to start of games and innings.
Evan: It's not like the Phillies are lacking in speedy guys who can get on base. Turner will bounce back in 2024 and he's a career leadoff guy. Stott takes tons of pitches and hits for average.
It's no longer a matter of, who else can do it.
Shamus: You are Philip Seymour Hoffman playing Art Howe in “Moneyball,” terrified that your preconceived notions of baseball are falling by the way side in light of the team beating the crap out of opponents when this is going on.
It’s a “problem” that doesn’t need fixing. They can’t win the division against Atlanta. They’ve been a Wild Card team. They were two games from winning the World Series and one game from getting back. Schwarber has a .987 playoff OPS as a Phillie with 11 home runs. Their failure to not win a championship has absolutely nothing to do with him and him hitting leadoff. The surrounding parts failed him if anything.
Evan: So your argument is, the Phillies should not aspire to improve their strategy in 2024, because in 2022 and 2023 they came close to winning, therefore let's just do the exact same thing with the exact same players — all one year older — and assume it will somehow work better?
Mine is, there is statistical evidence that they will score more runs by utilizing Schwarber's power better — and more runs should = more winning.
Shamus: Their strategy is working! It doesn’t need improving. They’re a high-90s winning team when he plays. They want to improve? Check Alec Bohm’s pulse before a playoff game starts. Don’t trust Aaron Nola with the season on the line.
The Phillies are far from flawless, but this is grunting about one of their strengths.
Evan: So here's my compromise — because obviously I have the power to implement these changes. The everyday leadoff man should be someone who hits above .200 in the regular season. Maybe Schwarber can be a nice change up, slump buster, and postseason boost in that leadoff spot that gets everyone excited.
Or we can agree to disagree and continue arguing about a mostly inconsequential decision for the next eight months.
Shamus: It’s not “can be.” He literally is that in the postseason. They’re built for October, not for May!
Evan: Well I am very much looking forward to the PhillyVoice sports debate over why they've lost twice in October. I definitely agree with you that it's not Schwarber.
What do you think?
