March 12, 2024
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Lefty slugger Kyle Schwarber is not expected to miss a ton of time.
The Phillies appear to be taking the same approach in spring training as their hungry (for hot dogs?) fans are: World Series or bust.
In back-to-back seasons, the Phillies made deep and loud postseason runs but neither has yielded a third ever championship.
Philly currently carries +1500 odds to win the World Series in 2023, the sixth best odds via FanDuel. They are second to win the NL East (+330) behind the Braves but are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs at -250.
Before the team hits the field against the Reds at the end of March to open their 2024 campaign, we're going to take a deep dive into each positional group.
Let's take a look at DH...
For someone with a tremendous approval rating within Philadelphia, 31 year-old slugger Kyle Schwarber is a polarizing figure in the city. Should he lead off? Should he hit clean-up? Does he swing for the fences too often? Is his walk rate truly meaningful enough to override his perennially lowly batting average? The masses are split!
There is one question about Schwarber that has been answered. For the foreseeable future, he will primarily be a designated hitter, no longer manning left field -- where he spent 242 games in his first two seasons with the Phillies -- on a daily basis. With Bryce Harper entrenched at first base, Schwarber will finally be able to move to a DH slot designed for players like him: guys who may not be the most skilled or the fleetest of foot, but can simply mash baseballs.
Schwarber exists in extremes; that lends itself to controversy. He has somehow managed to pull off the bizarre feat of being remarkably good or painfully bad in just about every facet of the game. In each of his two seasons in Philadelphia, Schwarber has been top-two in the National League in both home runs and strikeouts. His statistical profile on Baseball Savant paints the picture:
| Stats | Schwarber | Percentile |
| Average Exit Velocity | 92.4 | 94 |
| Barrel Percentage | 16.4 | 96 |
| BB% | 17.5 | 96 |
| K% | 29.9 | 99 |
| Fielding Range | -19 | 1 |
| Arm Value | -3 | 8 |
| Sprint Speed | 25.0 | 7 |
The Phillies' defense improved dramatically midway through the 2023 season. The biggest reason was the insertion of defensive wunderkind Johan Rojas into center field, which slid Brandon Marsh over to left field where he also excelled. But the Phillies also experienced addition by subtraction. Schwarber, who was possibly the single worst defender in the sport, went from standing in left field every day to only doing so occasionally. By the time the postseason came around, Schwarber was exclusively DHing.
As tremendous as Schwarber's power is, his defense out in left was so poor that it dramatically degraded his all-around production according to many advanced metrics which factor in defensive capabilities. But now, all Schwarber has to do is focus on doing what he does best: raking.
According to StatMuse, designated hitters throughout Major League Baseball had a combined OPS of .780 in 2023 -- higher than the average at any other position. Schwarber has posted an OPS above that mark in every single full season he has played in the majors (not including the 60-game season in 2020). His OPS was well over .800 in each of his first two years of Philadelphia. So, whether you like his walk-, strikeout- and homer-heavy approach or not, Schwarber has demonstrated throughout the duration of his major league career that he is an above average designated hitter.
In 2023, Schwarber's offensive performance was unchanged by his eventual switch from left field to the DH slot. But it is hard to imagine it would not give Schwarber a boost of some kind over a 162-game season to spend his time in between at-bats working in the batting cages rather than standing in the outfield.
Expect the Phillies to boast one of the best slash lines in the majors from the designated hitter spot -- only the Los Angeles Dodgers, the winners of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, feel like a lock to have better numbers. While the Phillies will likely give the vast majority of their at-bats in that spot to Schwarber, many other teams will use the slot to cycle players in and out of their lineup and give players unorthodox off days.
In a perfect world, the Phillies could use that approach, as they do have multiple below-average defenders locked into positions on a full-time basis. Alec Bohm has improved drastically, but is still not a good defensive third baseman. Ditto for Nick Castellanos in right field. Harper is still a novice of sorts at first base, and he has not exactly been an iron man since arriving in Philadelphia. The two-time MVP has played in just 225 regular season games over the last two seasons.
That is why Schwarber will likely see the occasional spot start in left field -- Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported at the start of Spring Training that he would still do some work in the outfield.
When the chips are down, though, Schwarber figures to once again be this team's designated hitter. And while his strikeouts may be maddening, it will be much easier for fans to appreciate him for the absolute masher that he is when they do not gave to watch him fail to track down balls in the outfield.
Projection systems seem to agree that Schwarber will remain a dangerous hitter at the top of the Phillies' lineup (if that is where he remains -- more on that here). Both FanGraphs' ZiPS and baseball-reference have a positive outlook on his 2024 campaign:
| Schwarber's 2023 | ZiPS | baseball-reference |
| .197 AVG | .218 AVG | .223 AVG |
| .343 OBP | .343 OBP | .340 OBP |
| .474 SLG | .475 SLG | .498 SLG |
In the end, these are mere projections, not fact. The only fact is this: the Schwarber debates will likely persist for as long as he is in Philadelphia.
