July 24, 2024
Commonwealth Media Services/PACast
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is in the running to be the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election. He's shown above at an event in Lackawanna County in July.
Twenty years ago, Josh Shapiro walked door-to-door in his hometown of Abington to meet with constituents on his way to becoming a state representative. Now, Shapiro is Pennsylvania's governor and among the favorites to be chosen as the Democratic vice presidential nominee. If selected, he'd join a volatile race that would rapidly elevate his profile in a party that's in turmoil and transition.
President Joe Biden's decision on Sunday to exit the presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris — a move many Democrats have since echoed — leaves open a critical decision about who should be her presumptive running mate. The emergence of new faces leading the Democratic Party will have consequences not just for November's election but for the political pecking order in years to come.
"I thought there would be more room for chaos than there seems to have been thus far, but the Democrats have a talent for finding the chaos," Michael Hagan, an associate professor of political science at Temple University, said of the days since Biden left the race. "That story has not been entirely written at this point."
Shapiro, 51, ranks high among a shortlist of vice presidential options that includes Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore.
Historically, the choice of vice presidential candidates has been about solidifying the party ticket in swing states where familiar leaders can help sway voters on the fence. Harris, a former senator in deep-blue California, went against that grain in 2020 when Biden defeated Donald Trump. Her background as a law-and-order prosecutor was viewed as a way to connect with voters in multiple states where the Biden campaign thought he needed help.
The strategy the Democrats choose this year could reflect a wish to take nibbles out of multiple states or to push their chips in with a candidate who they believe will deliver a swing state needed to beat Trump. The party's hope is that the vice presidential pick could do both, but the influence is often more symbolic than it is decisive at a national scale.
"The research suggests that the vice presidential pick is not very influential when it comes to the votes cast by ordinary Americans and it rarely has much influence on the outcome of presidential elections," said Hagan, who formerly was the director of the Center for Public Interest Polling at the Eagleton Institute of Politics in New Brunswick, New Jersey. "It can make a difference in a particular state — the nominee's home state."
In May, a New York Times poll found that Shapiro was popular with one-third of people who supported Trump in previous elections in Pennsylvania. When Shapiro was elected governor in 2022, he cruised to victory with 56% of the vote in his defeat of Trump-aligned Republican Doug Mastriano. His popularity in Pennsylvania could move the needle.
"In a state where 100,000 votes separates a winner from a loser, that's possible," Hagan said. "He certainly would have a bigger impact in Pennsylvania than anyone else the Democratic nominee might choose. It gets back to their calculation of whether Pennsylvania is absolutely at the top of the list of states they have to win, or two or three down the list."
In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by a margin of just 68,236 votes. Four years later, Biden topped Trump by 80,544 votes.
"There is often a lot of discussion about whether a VP candidate can deliver their home state's electoral votes to the ticket," said Nyron Crawford, who also teaches political science at Temple University. "However, there is some evidence that this perceived 'home state advantage' is not that strong."
Still, Crawford said Shapiro stands out as a possible exception. In a February poll by Franklin & Marshall College, nearly half of Pennsylvania residents said they believe Shapiro is doing an "excellent" or "good" job as governor. That was the highest approval rating for a governor in Pennsylvania at that point in their first term since former Republican Tom Ridge. When Shapiro was first elected to the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners in 2011, it was the first time that Republicans lost control of the board. Shapiro's track record of winning two statewide races — first as attorney general and then as governor — also supports the confidence Democrats would have in him as a vice presidential candidate in November.
Relying on poll numbers in an already tumultuous election cycle is a risky proposition that makes it hard to gauge how Harris, Shapiro and other candidates are viewed by voters. The 2016 presidential election upended the polling industry and cast doubt on whether polls can accurately capture the sentiments of the voting public. Improvements in data collection and analysis using more sources, including online surveys, helped the industry rebound during the 2022 midterms, when polls were historically accurate.
"I still have a fair amount of faith (in polls), although it can't be described as anything other than faith," Hagan said.
Geography isn't the only consideration in choosing a vice presidential candidate.
"One important element parties and voters tend to think about with VP candidates is 'ticket balancing,'" Crawford said, explaining that the role could be a demographic or ideological counterweight to the president.
In that regard, there are questions about Shapiro — specifically how him being Jewish affects both Democrat and Republican voters.
"There's certainly plenty of antisemitism in the United States," Hagan said. "Most of the people who might be inclined to vote against Shapiro because he's Jewish probably have 11 other reasons to vote against Shapiro.
"I actually think the potential liability Shapiro would bring (is) he has been a vocal advocate and defender of Israel. The Democrats are thanking their lucky stars that somehow the Israel-Hamas issue has faded from view in the past few weeks, and the last thing that they want is for that to become an issue again for the convention and the general election."
Crawford said Shapiro's position on school choice — crossing party lines to support vouchers for private schools — also is a curveball in his policy profile.
For the Republicans, Trump's selection of JD Vance was not a surprise to Hagan considering his youth and his outspoken nature.
"I think Ohio is unlikely to be close enough for Vance to make a difference there, but maybe his way of presenting himself will be advantageous to Trump elsewhere," Hagan said. "I suspect he may be an example of the sort of candidate who's not going to have a big outcome on the election."
Since Sunday, Shapiro has not clearly indicated whether he would accept the invitation to be the vice presidential nominee. He joined other Democrats who have endorsed Harris — a fellow former prosecutor he's known for years — and had a conversation with her after Biden left the race.
"We spoke only about defeating Donald Trump and our shared commitment to that," Shapiro said Monday, adding that he's confident Harris will make the right decision.
In May, Shapiro told CBS News that speculation about him running for president in 2028 was not his focus.
"God willing, I'm going to be governor for a long time, as long as the good people of Pennsylvania will continue to have me," he said. "I've got a lot of work to do here, and I'm focused on doing that work."
There are reasons Shapiro could be hesitant to join a 2024 Democratic ticket that has been weighed down by uncertainty, especially if he has future presidential ambitions.
Only one vice presidential candidate on a losing ticket has ever gone on to become president. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the Democrats' vice presidential nominee for John W. Davis in the 1920 election, which was won by Republican Warren G. Harding. Roosevelt then ran for president and won in 1932.
Other losing vice presidential candidates, like Republican Bob Dole in 1976, haven't fared well in future presidential runs. Dole lost to Bill Clinton in the 1996 presidential election. And Walter Mondale, who served as Jimmy Carter's Vice President, lost his bid for the presidency against Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Hagan doesn't believe Shapiro would let history discourage him.
"It doesn't seem to me that the damage to a person's national reputation would be so great from losing this presidential election that he or she would never be heard from again," Hagan said. "That seems unlikely to me, especially because the betting has been that Trump would win."
Even if Harris or another Democrat were to lose to Trump, Shapiro would still have his job as governor. And if the Democrats win, Shapiro would already have built a national profile that puts him in good position for a presidential run in either 2028 or 2032.
The biggest break for Democrats is that the weight of Biden's crumbling political prospects has been lifted. That will matter far more than the vice presidential pick in determining whether voters are energized to turn out for a Democratic candidate.
"The big virtue of what's happened from the Democrats' point of view is that the lack of enthusiasm for Biden is no longer a factor," Hagan said. "The question of who actually gets encouraged or discouraged enough to participate is absolutely critical."
