November 30, 2015

John Bolaris' weekly snow outlook

By John Bolaris
PhillyVoice Contributor

All systems are clicking for keeping the arctic cold and snow away.

The long-range forecast is right on target as November was unseasonably mild with no snow to date.

Godzilla El Nino is acting as a mild blow torch keeping the East on the mild side, and any snow locked away across the Upper Midwest, parts of the Southwest, as well as the mountains of California and the Rockies.

North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic oscillation (AO) remains in a very strong positive phase, meaning the chances of snow remain minimal at best through the next 10-15 days.

Temperatures will remain on the milder side all this week with just plain rain moving in by early Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday. I'm looking at a return to sunshine for the second half of the week with temperatures generally in the 50s.

Long-range forecasting ensemble models are suggesting that the NAO and AO might see a turn toward neutral or negative by mid-December, which would mean significant cooling and increasing chances of a significant storm threat. But I'm still leaning toward rain over snow for Philadelphia at this time.

Still looking at February and March to give us our best chances of snow.