March 13, 2021
Joel Embiid was able to escape Friday night's game against the Wizards with just a bone bruise, the Sixers announced Saturday morning, avoiding major ligament damage in a great bit of news. The MVP candidate is expected to be re-evaluated in two weeks, but don't let that timeline fool you — this is an injury that could alter the course of Philly's season even if it's less impactful than initially feared.
Just a few of the things to consider with Embiid on the mend...
To put it lightly, the Sixers' margin for error with Embiid out is basically zero. As great a story as their start to the season has been, an extended losing run threatens to throw them into the mud of the conference, making a deep playoff run considerably more difficult.
It was easy to laugh at the Nets early during James Harden's tenure there because of how bad their defense was (and mostly still is), but they have morphed into a juggernaut over the last month, winning 12 of their last 13 games despite Kevin Durant missing 13 of their last 14 games. They are not the only threat to pass Philadelphia for one of the top seeds in the conference, with the Bucks lurking 2.5 games behind Philly and with all of their head-to-head matchups against the Sixers left to play.
If Embiid only misses exactly two weeks for Philadelphia, that would see him miss matchups with at least three contenders (the Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers) and the bulk of a long road trip out west, a stretch of the schedule that would have tested the Sixers even with a fully healthy team. Eight games missed doesn't seem like a huge number, but they have been so far underwater without Embiid throughout his career that it's hard to expect them to even tread water without him. Those eight games are enough to potentially change their place in the standings for the rest of the year.
While seeding doesn't seem as important as it would in a normal season, one with packed arenas and true homecourt advantage come playoff time, it still ultimately determines the quality of opponent you're likely to face round-by-round. Playing a team like the Celtics, Heat, or even the Hornets in Round 2 is a much lighter task than having to spar with one of Milwaukee or Brooklyn, which is how it likely shakes out if Philly drops to the No. 2 or 3 seed by season's end.
If the bottom really drops out and the Sixers find themselves around the No. 4 or 5 seed by the end of the year, they would potentially lose the benefit of a cupcake first-round matchup with, for example, the Hawks or Knicks, and then have to beat multiple contenders in the second round and conference finals just to make it to the NBA Finals. Some of those matchups are more daunting than others when considering stylistic factors, but it gets rough in a hurry.
The Sixers' NBA title chances will most assuredly take a hit, which currently stand at +1200 according to Pa.Unibet.
The real fallout from Embiid's injury is the caution it might inspire in the Sixers the rest of the way. In a condensed schedule with their best player now expected to recover from a knee issue midseason, the Sixers will have to be even more careful to protect Embiid's health and ensure that he is ready to go when the playoffs roll around. The fear is that the eight games are only the start for an Embiid management plan through mid-May, which would ultimately be the smart way to approach this but would almost certainly kneecap them in the race for the No. 1 seed.
Which brings us to...
There have been a number of big names connected to the Sixers since the beginning of the year, and only one of them had legitimate traction. Philadelphia pursued James Harden about as hard as they could right up until he was traded to Brooklyn, viewing him as a player who would significantly alter their title odds. Another opportunity like that has not (and likely will not) presented itself in the time since.
Internally, the Sixers have spent recent weeks trying to temper expectations for the sort of additions they'll bring in by the trade deadline. Recent conversations with people around the team suggest they don't believe a home run is coming. Even a home run swing feels unlikely based on what I've heard so far. There are a variety of reasons for that from what I can gather:
That all sounds good and reasonable when you have the league's leading MVP candidate and the best record in the league. It's harder to stick to that plan when an injury to your best player throws the trajectory of the season into doubt. All of the above was qualified with the usual, "A lot can change in two weeks," though at the time that was meant to imply trade partners could come down from their asking prices.
Without boring you with the numbers, lineups with Embiid have been excellent, and almost every group without him has been bad this year. That includes five-man units that have their other stars on the floor — the Sixers get outscored by over 10 points per 100 possessions when Ben Simmons is on the floor without Embiid, playing league-worst level offense and bottom-10 defense. They are going to need assistance in one form or another, and it feels like a big ask for the Sixers to get there by simply changing the lineup combinations and asking the Simmons/Harris duo to take their games to another level.
Frankly, there's a possibility this could go the other way, making the Sixers even less likely to make an impactful acquisition before the year ends. Other teams smell blood in the water and likely put the screws to the Sixers over the next couple of weeks before the deadline, hoping their sense of desperation can coax an extra pick or two out of them. Daryl Morey and Co. may just bow out of major trade talks entirely and focus their energy on fringe moves.
(Speaking of fringe moves, the Sixers have also made it a point to downplay the potential impact of the buyout market on their team, something they've done every year following the Ilyasova/Belinelli bonanza in 2018. Considering their playoff rotation size, lack of sizable roles to offer, and appealing opportunities elsewhere around the league, they are not expecting to find the missing piece on the buyout market.)
First, you have to consider Embiid's mental state as much as his physical health right now. As teammate Tobias Harris noted on Friday night, Embiid's scary fall was gutting in part because of how much extra work and effort Embiid had put in to be the best version of himself this year. Off-court drills, working with a nutritionist and physical therapist, only for it all to come crashing down anyway. How he responds is an unknown, though you obviously hope for the best.
We are admittedly in uncharted territory this season, but history tells us that an NBA MVP has to play a minimum of 70 games in an 82 game season (or roughly 85 percent of their team's games) in order to have a chance at the league's top individual honor. Based on the timeline provided by Philadelphia, the absolute best-case scenario here will have Embiid missing an additional eight games, maxing out his total at 57/72, or around 79 percent of Philadelphia's games this season.
There is one exception to the rule: Bill Walton took home the NBA MVP trophy in 1978 despite playing just 58 games. I won't make the claim that Walton was better that season, but he was riding a tailwind that made his case a bit easier to make. After surprising most analysts by leading the Blazers to a title over the Sixers in 1977, the Blazers won 50 of their first 60 games with Walton leading the way in 1977-78, with Portland still managing to claim the league's best record despite Walton breaking his foot and missing the rest of the regular season. Once you climb the summit, people are more inclined to give you the benefit of the doubt, and that's what makes it hard to compare the two cases.
(And that's without trying to pick apart the reasons why a white center might get a fairer shake from the 1970s press core compared to some of his peers, though it's worth noting Walton would eventually fall out of favor with many media members for a variety of reasons. Stupid reasons, mostly, but reasons all the same.)
The Sixers do not have the sort of cushion built in that the Blazers did back then, and there are plenty of solid candidates to challenge him for the award. Many national pundits have started laying the groundwork for their LeBron James votes with TV appearances and feature pieces, while challenges from the likes of Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, and even someone like James Harden, who has been a machine with the Nets since making the conference switch. While I think a lot of media members would be reluctant to vote for a guy who publicly burned his previous team down to the extent Harden did, ultimately the numbers and wins speak for themselves.
For Embiid to remain in the MVP conversation, he needs a bunch of semi-connected factors to align:
That seems like a big ask, especially the final part. Again, the Sixers have all the incentive in the world to protect his health as much as possible down the stretch of this season. Their postseason run is what matters, and with the condensed schedule they're up against over the final few months, it's likely they would have bought him some rest here and there even if he hadn't suffered some sort of injury.
This is the last way you want to see a player's award candidacy go up in smoke. But the Sixers have other things to worry about.
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