December 03, 2016
The Eagles head to Cincinnati on Sunday to take on the Bengals in a game featuring two teams that seem to be headed in the wrong direction.
The Birds have lost six of eight and are on the verge of falling completely out of playoff contention, if they haven't already. They'll be without Ryan Mathews and possible Jordan Matthews, who have combined for 11 of the Eagles 22 offensive touchdowns this season.
The Bengals, meanwhile, have gone 1-5-1 since starting the season 2-2 and will be without a pair of players in A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard that have accounted for over 40 percent of the team's offense this season.
It could be a sloppy one in Cincy. And that's before you realize Sunday's forecast calls for rain. Here are five over/unders to get you ready for the game.
That's the current point total being offered up at topbet.eu, and it seems to be pretty on the money. Over their last three games, the Eagles and their opponents have combined to average exactly 40 points per game. On the season, that number is right around 42.5 PPG (23.1 PPG scored, 19.4 PPG allowed). The Bengals, meanwhile, average 19.4 PPG while giving up 22.3 PPG (or 41.7 PPG combined).
And just like the Eagles, those numbers have dropped off over the last three weeks, especially on offense after losing Green and then Bernard. They're averaging just 15.3 PPG in that 0-3 stretch and have allowed 18.7 PPG (for a total of 34 PPG).
We already know the Eagles will be without Mathews, and Carson Wentz's favorite target, Matthews, who is listed as questionable after not practicing on Friday. Add in Nelson Agholor's uncertain status, and it looks less and less likely that these two teams will break out of their recent scoring slumps on Sunday.
UNDER.
At this point, we're not even sure if Agholor will be in uniform against the Bengals. On Friday, Pederson wouldn't say whether or not the second-year wideout would play in Cincinnati -- that seems like a conversation you'd want to have a little earlier in the wee -- and danced around answer the question in a manner that would make Gene Kelly proud.
It was something to behold.
Q. Do you plan on playing WR Nelson Agholor on Sunday?
PEDERSON: I plan on keeping him in the mix because of Jordan's [Matthews] situation right now. [We’re going to] definitely keep him alive. He's had a good week of practice, obviously yesterday and on Wednesday. So, [we are] definitely keeping him alive for this week.
Q. With WR Nelson Agholor, keeping him in the mix, does that mean he's going to be active on Sunday?
PEDERSON: Yeah, there's a good chance again. I have to find out how Jordan [Matthews] does today and see really. Just getting on Nelson, his mind has been great; his attitude has been really good; he's been working hard. So, right now, nothing says not keeping him up, keeping him out. Everything's leaning towards keeping him active.
Q. I mean, why not just say 100 percent he's going to be active? Why are you hedging still?
PEDERSON: I've got two days. I've still got two days. I've kind of been a believer of I don't want to rush into anything. Because when you put that [deactivated] list in and guys are down, that's it. It's set in stone.
So, if I can wait till the last second, I'm going to wait till the last second and just see, because we still have today. And having five guys right now working in the mix, if something were to happen today or tomorrow – an illness could happen, like [G] Brandon [Brooks] last weekend – it keeps five guys alive. So, it's hard to just commit right now at this point.
Q. But I’m just wondering from WR Nelson Agholor's point of view, what's holding him back? Why can't he just be active now? Is he still not right in the head?
PEDERSON: No, that's what I was getting too earlier. He's fine. He's fine. That’s what I’m saying.
Q. So there's a chance, theoretically?
PEDERSON: There's a chance. Theoretically there's a chance, yeah.
What?
Given that Matthews could miss the game, this is even more confusing. If Matthews is out, Agholor will likely be forced to play, putting him in exactly the kind of situation you need to avoid if the hope is to make his head right. Preparation purposes aside, the whole you're-only-playing-because-we-don't-have-anyone-else message is not the one you want to be sending, especially at the last minute.
And if Agholor somehow remains inactive with Matthews also out, that's an even worse message: Our rookie QB is better off throwing to nobody than to you.
This really comes down to whether or not he plays, but I'm going with the safer option here.
UNDER.
The Eagles defensive front seven has struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks, recording just one sack (but no negative yards) in the last two weeks. They have just six in their last five games after recording 20 through their first seven games of the season. I wrote a quite a bit about those struggles earlier this week – and you can read about that here – but when it comes to Sunday's matchup against the Bengals, there's a decent chance Jim Schwartz's unit breaks out of their recent slump.
In 440 dropbacks this season, Andy Dalton has been sacked a total of 32 times (or 7.3 percent). Another way to look at that is that Dalton is sacked once every 13.75 times he tries to throw. The Bengals offensive has been slightly better in the last three games, allowing one sack for every 18.14 passing plays. That being said, they've still allowed seven sacks in those three games, and we're talking about the total number, not the efficiency rate.
Without Bernard, look for Dalton to throw quite a bit – the Bengals have called 95 passing plays in their last two games – giving the Eagles D more than enough chances to bring him down. After all, this shouldn't be that tough of a number to reach. But maybe that depends on which defensive front shows up on Sunday.
OVER.
Unfortunately, I don't think he breaks out of his current sack drought against the Bengals. That, however, doesn't mean he won't be a factor against Cincinnati's offensive line. As long as he's generating the kind of push up front he's capable of producing – and opening up opportunities for his teammates – then he's having an impact on the game. I'm taking the under here, but I still think Cox has a better game than he did against Green Bay.
UNDER.
It's hard to see either quarterback putting up big numbers with both team's top receivers being injured. But there's at least a chance that Matthews plays, unlike Green. Because of that – plus the fact that Darren Sproles may be the best offensive weapon available to either QB on Sunday – the edge has to go to the rookie here.
And while Wentz's passer rating has been down in recent weeks (74.4 since Week 10), Dalton's posted a 69.9 passer rating in the last three weeks, down from 98.0 through the first eight games of the season.
OVER.
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
