August 26, 2020
It's too easy to just look at a list of running back rankings, or ADP, and to draft blindly based on other people's assertions. But there are pieces of information that can't be gleamed from rankings or even from the average draft position of players throughout fantasy football.
There are a lot of players who are overvalued or over-hyped this year, and a lot of them are running backs. Picking the best team you possibly can relies a lot on you, as a fantasy owner, digging deeper and gathering some extra information.
We are here to help you do that. We've picked four running backs who will surely get drafted higher than they deserve to. Don't fall into their trap.
(The rankings below are based on our in-house fantasy running back ranks, available here.)
When did Mixon produce the most last season? In the second half. What was the Bengals' record in that span? 0-8. Mixon had a huge workload, getting more than 22 carries a game. That likely won't be the team's philosophy with shiny top pick Joe Burrow now their quarterback, and presumably a much healthier receiving corps.
Mixon only caught two passes per game in 2019, and really looks like he'll have a more reduced role in their offense this coming season. He's a reach as a first-round pick and if someone else wants to take the chance, let them. If he does slide into the late second round, that's when you should pounce.
Marlon Mack has had back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and he hasn't gone anywhere. Nyheim Hines is also still in the mix in Indy. They also have a pass-happy quarterback now under center in Phillip Rivers. The idea that Taylor, who is possibly the most talented rookie running back slated to play in 2020, will get the lion's share of carries — at least to start the year — is a little bit presumptuous.
That isn't to say Taylor isn't worth drafting, but his ADP on some fantasy sites is as high as a third-round pick, which is definitely an overpay. If you can nab Taylor later on, in the fourth or even the fifth, that's a gem of a pick.
Akers is another rookie who looks great on paper, but in actuality will have a lot of competition for touches, at least to start the season, in the Los Angeles backfield. Darrell Henderson seems to be the man on passing downs, and Malcolm Brown is the short-yardage and red-zone guy. It looks like it'll be a running-back-by-committee approach in LA.
The Rams' offensive line is a bit shaky, and those picking Akers in one of the first four rounds are asking for frustration. He should be a backup RB on your roster, and you should be patient with him.
The Patriots and Bill Belichick have a lot of weapons in the backfield, from Michel, to Rex Burkhead, to James White, to one of our sleeper picks Damien Harris. Here's what we had to say about Harris last week:
Sony Michel is still recovering from foot surgery and could miss the first six games of 2020. The race to start behind him is between veterans James White, Rex Burkhead and 2019 third round pick Damien Harris. In just two appearances during his rookie year, Harris was unable to break through a crowded backfield and had just four total carries. This season could be different. Under some pressure to prove his high draft slot out of Alabama was worth it, Harris should get the opportunity to show he can be a reliable early down back. If he does get that chance, fantasy owners should keep an eye on him as their draft progresses.
The New England running back room has a ton of questions, as does their offensive scheme as a whole. Target Harris later, and avoid Michel. Let someone else have the Patriot running back headaches.
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