August 20, 2024
Katie Stratman/USA Today Sports
Neither of these guys got taken in fantasy drafts last year.
If there is one tip we can give a fantasy football manager — based on the trends of the last few years — it's absolutely draft at least one rookie.
In fact, you should probably draft more than one. Stash them on your bench. Monitor them on waivers. Be on rookie watch.
History suggests that rookies gain steam in the second half of a season, just when you need them in the fantasy playoffs. They are also typically improperly rated by fantasy rankings and therefore offer immense value if you can hit on a player later in a draft who ends up as a starter.
Rookies are incredibly valuable as keepers. Puka Nacua, Tank Dell and C.J. Stroud were all picked up off waivers in most leagues last season, and in keeper leagues, those players count as late-round picks.
Bolded in the tables below are the rookies who were underrated in their initial fantasy "offering." Consider all of this data when you're strategizing to build your team:
| Pos | Player | 2023 ADP | 2024 ADP |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 8.8 | 4.6 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 36.7 | 9.7 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | 78.4 | 131.6 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 83.0 | 91.7 |
| WR | Quintin Johnston | 96.1 | 154.6 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | 100.0 | 56.8 |
| RB | Zach Charbonnet | 107.2 | 128.1 |
| QB | Anthony Richardson | 125.5 | 56.1 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | 146.9 | 59.2 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | 152.1 | NR |
| TE | Sam Laporta | 152.9 | 29.8 |
| WR | Marvin Mims | 154.2 | 176.7 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | 163.1 | NR |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | NR | 161.7 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | NR | 153.9 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | NR | 15.0 |
| WR | Tank Dell | NR | 57.2 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | NR | 66.8 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | NR | 65.3 |
| QB | CJ Stroud | NR | 51.3 |
| Pos | Player | 2022 ADP | 2023 ADP |
| RB | Breece Hall | 44.4 | 36.6 |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | 70.5 | 57.0 |
| RB | James Cook | 92.0 | 77.6 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | 92.9 | 47.9 |
| WR | Drake London | 102.2 | 44.1 |
| WR | Chris Olave | 110.4 | 20.4 |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | 112.7 | 94.2 |
| WR | Skyy Moore | 118.1 | 109.1 |
| WR | George Pickens | 123.6 | 70.0 |
| WR | Treylon Burks | 129.3 | 88.7 |
| RB | Zamir White | 130.5 | 153.7 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | 134.1 | 127.7 |
| TE | Trey McBride | NR | NR |
| WR | Christian Watson | NR | 48.6 |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | NR | 15.6 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | NR | 120.3 |
In 2022 every single rookie fantasy player — besides McBride, who broke out a year later, and Zamir White, who is slated to start for the Raiders this season — improved their fantasy stock after just one season. If you picked up Garrett Wilson as a non-ranked free agent sometime two years ago, you have him for a second season as an immensely valuable keeper.
The 2021 class:
| Pos | Player | 2021 ADP | 2022 ADP |
| RB | Najee Harris | 13.3 | 6.4 |
| TE | Kyle Pitts | 44.0 | 40.6 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | 57.4 | 19.1 |
| RB | Trey Sermon | 67.0 | 119.4 |
| RB | Michael Carter | 76.6 | 98.5 |
| WR | J'Marr Chase | 77.3 | 11.5 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | 84.1 | 86.6 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | 105.2 | 44.2 |
| QB | Trey Lance | 118.8 | 97.6 |
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | 126.7 | 148.3 |
| QB | Justin Fields | 132.0 | 151.3 |
| WR | Elijah Moore | 134.0 | 87.9 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 134.1 | 86.4 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | 134.1 | 126.4 |
| QB | Mac Jones | 147.8 | 163.9 |
| RB | Kenny Gainwell | 155.4 | 119.2 |
| WR | Rondale Moore | 161.3 | 165.1 |
| WR | Terrance Marshall | 162.2 | ND |
| WR | Amon Ra St Brown | 162.6 | 85.6 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | 163.3 | 121.5 |
| QB | Zach Wilson | 176.4 | 182.9 |
| RB | Elijah Mitchell | ND | 41.7 |
| RB | Travis Etienne | ND | 42.0 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | ND | 93.6 |
| WR | Ladarius Toney | ND | 110.9 |
Most rookies drafted in 2021 held their value at worst, with most of them getting better ADP in their second season. Getting good value is the entire purpose of a fantasy draft and rookies are like investments in stock. They may not average 15 points per game in the first few weeks of the season, but the season is a grind and they could by Week 13.
Here is 2020's rookie class and their leap to 2021:
| Pos | Player | 2020 ADP | 2021 ADP |
| RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5.6 | 18.3 |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | 33.3 | 11.9 |
| RB | Cam Akers | 52.2 | ** |
| RB | J.K. Dobbins | 69.9 | ** |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 102.6 | 31.1 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | 111.6 | 68.1 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | 62.7 | 33.7 |
| WR | Jalen Reagor | 112.4 | 161.0 |
| WR | Henry Ruggs III | 114.1 | 122.5 |
| QB | Joe Burrow | 143.8 | 110.2 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 135.4 | 23.3 |
| RB | Zack Moss | 86.5 | 76.9 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | 154.6 | 55.8 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | ND | 64.6 |
| RB | Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 125.9 | ND |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | 156.0 | 97.7 |
| QB | Tua Tagovailoa | ND | 158.0 |
| RB | A.J. Dillon | 123.3 | 79.0 |
| WR | Laviska Shenault Jr. | ND | 92.1 |
| RB | Antonio Gibson | 81.6 | 14.4 |
| WR | Bryan Edwards | ND | 151.6 |
| QB | Justin Herbert | ND | 61.2 |
| WR | Chase Claypool | 166.9 | 61.3 |
| QB | Jalen Hurts | ND | 95.1 |
**Was drafted relatively highly and assumed a starter before season-ending injury.
You can see the trend loud and clear. Here's one more class from 2019:
| Pos | Player | 2019 ADP | 2020 ADP |
| RB | David Montgomery | 29.7 | 57.5 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | 31.8 | 9.4 |
| RB | Miles Sanders | 52.4 | 13.4 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | 82.9 | 52.8 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | 83.3 | 119.8 |
| RB | Darrell Henderson Jr. | 96.0 | 127.0 |
| QB | Kyler Murray | 109.8 | 61.1 |
| RB | Justice Hill | 111.8 | NR |
| RB | Alexander Mattison | 127.2 | 97.0 |
| WR | D.K. Metcalf | 132.8 | 45.6 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | 136.2 | 140.0 |
| WR | Mecole Hardman | 138.6 | 109.6 |
| RB | Damien Harris | 143.4 | 103.3 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | 153.1 | 87.7 |
| WR | K'Neal Harry | ND | 154.4 |
| TE | Noah Fant | ND | 115.6 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ND | 57.7 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | ND | 42.2 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | ND | 94.0 |
So what should you do in 2024? Well, obviously there are a few top-line rookies everyone is talking about, like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Caleb Williams. But beyond them, there are a handful of potential rookie steals who could be household names in 2025.
Here are five that we think should be on your radar:
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
Daniels has legs. He also will be manning a Commanders team that could be trailing a lot, and that has some relatively decent weapons on offense. He could be a garbage time points king if he finds the end zone a starting caliber QB.
Jaylen Wright, RB, Dolphins
The Fins absolutely love speed, and their running back room is packed full of it. Raheem Mostert is getting old, and De'Von Achane is injury-prone. There's a chance Wright hits the field this season and is part of a two-man speed tandem next season with Achane. Get him while he's cheap.
Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals
Benson is a talented No. 2 in Arizona backing up James Conner, a running back who is oft-hurt. No need to overthink this one.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills
There might not be a better opportunity for a wide receiver to break out than in Buffalo right now. Gone are Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Bills' second-round pick could see a ton of targets and if he makes the most of them he might become Josh Allen's favorite target.
Ricky Pearsell, WR, 49ers
If Brandon Aiyuk does get traded, Pearsell becomes a must-draft in every league. Until he does, he's the No. 3 in a pecking order that contains an over-used and often injured Deebo Samuel, and an unhappy Aiyuk. This could be a slick keeper for 2025.
