August 23, 2021
When it comes to drafting your quarterback in fantasy, there are really two main ways to go about it.
You can pounce and try and get one of the sport's elite mobile QBs, like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson. Or, you can sit back, be patient and try and get the most value you can out of a quarterback in a later round, using your top draft picks on skill players.
Throw in Deshaun Watson (who likely won't produce much due to his legal issues) and Aaron Rodgers and you have the top six QBs from 2020, each of who finished within 30 points of Allen's 405 (via FantasyPros scoring).
There is a drop-off after that, at least when it comes to points from a year ago. When is it the best time to jump on a lesser QB, whose lack of production compared to the top guys could be made up for by having a better starting RB or WR on your roster? And which of these signal-callers are worth waiting for in your draft?
We've picked three we think are worthy of this treatment:
The Rams have a pretty good offense already. If you believe them — and they put their money where their mouth is on this — they think Stafford is a considerable upgrade over their former QB Jared Goff. Stafford, throwing to Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola as the Lions' top WR options in 2020, had 270.5 fantasy points in 2020. Goff, throwing to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, had 253.
Swapping those offenses is expected to give Stafford the opportunity to go hog wild, and perhaps post numbers like he did back in the Megatron days. Stafford is ranked everywhere from the 7th best fantasy QB to the 18th best, so depending on how your draft goes he could really be selected anywhere from the 6th to 12th rounds, you just have to follow closely and know when to grab him.
Stafford actually has a +1200 chance of leading the entire NFL in passing yards, according to DraftKings odds over at Pickswise, the sixth best such odds in the league.
Every year there is a breakthrough quarterback in fantasy, but often times its not the first one selected. Last year, Justin Herbert burst onto the scene with the Chargers. In 2019 it was Kyler Murray. And in 2018 it was, of course, Lamar Jackson. There is a very good chance this year's version is Lawrence, and he is being extremely undervalued likely because the Jaguars sucked last year, and because there is always a blowback when there is an abundance of hype.
However, Lawrence can run the ball, and he has better targets than most No. 1 overall picks have had in D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault Jr. and a running back tandem of James Robinson and Travis Etienne — all of whom may see a spike in their draft value with a competent quarterback calling the shots. Lawrence could be hit or miss, but he's worth a swing (with a strong backup to help curb potential early struggles).
Lawrence is the odds on favorite to win the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award, sporting +300 odds across most betting platforms, via Pickswise. Herbert and Murray were the last two offensive ROY's.
The list of fantasy-relevant skill players on the Browns is extensive: Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones. Someone has to distribute the ball to them.
While Mayfield has seemed like an unreliable fantasy performer over his first three seasons, he has actually been remarkably consistent. He has scored 20, 18 and 21 total TDs respectively, while collecting 254, 250 and 256 fantasy points. None of that breaks the bank, but he has shown a baseline of performance — and he has a high ceiling with a very talented team around him. Mayfield is a very safe play if you are looking to go all in on skill guys in your draft and snag a QB late.
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