August 25, 2020
When it comes to drafting a QB in your fantasy league it's really easy to succumb to the lore of a big flashy name — or to over-draft to try and keep up when you first see a league member draft Patrick Mahomes. Having a reliable everyday quarterback is a big bonus in fantasy, as having to stream fourth-tier signal-callers is never a fun task.
But you also have to protect the biggest asset you have: draft positioning. Reaching to take a quarterback who is overrated hurts the quality of your skill positions and could cost you down the line.
As always, we're here to help. Here's a quartet of quarterbacks you may have heard of, whom we would advise you avoid unless they absolutely fall into your lap (the rankings are from our own QB fantasy ranks):
Jackson is the reigning MVP and will be a very good quarterback in 2020. He just won't be as good. And that's why there is a huge risk of over-drafting.
The top QB in fantasy has not repeated that feat in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees did it in 2012. Jackson averaged over 28 points per game over 15 games, a touchdown more than the next QB, Deshaun Watson, last year. He had 65 more total points than Christian McCaffery did in one fewer game. Jackson's weapons (aside from perhaps Mark Andrews at tight end) are shaky, and the run game is what fuels the Ravens offense. Jackson is worth targeting if he slips to the third or fourth round, but taking him instead of an elite skill player in Round 1, 2 or 3 is an overpay. He is almost half as likely to be the NFL's MVP in 2020 than Mahomes is — according to TheLines.com's consensus odds.
I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Tom Brady this season. Which is why I advise you to avoid him. Yes, there is certainly a chance the all-time greatest is able to build chemistry with his incredibly skilled receiving corps including Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But there is also the chance he plays like a 43-year-old quarterback joining a new team — and a new system — for the first time.
There's no way to know what he will look like until the season begins. If you want to take that chance, be my guest — just make sure you have a serviceable backup just in case it goes south and he shows his age.
It's sad to say, but Rodgers is in decline. There's a reason Green Bay spent a high draft pick on Jordan Love. There's also a reason why his MVP odds — typically a top 5 number — is behind nine other QB's at +2756 (according to TheLines.com's consensus odds). At 36-years-old, the former MVP has seen his production drop over the last three or four seasons and he simply hasn't been given the tools to succeed in Green Bay. In addition, injuries and opt outs have already wreaked havoc on the offense, with a top tackle, tight end and wideout slated to miss time.
Rodgers makes sense as a late-round flier pick, but he only had six games last year with 20 or more fantasy points and that seems like the right range for 2020 as well.
The former Dolphin saw his career reborn with a second act in Tennessee as he unseated Marcus Mariota for the starting job and led an improbable playoff run. He also was third among all quarterbacks last season averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game over his 12 regular season games played. He was a great find in 2019, but will likely regress to the mean in 2020.
Tannehill is borderline draftable and is more like a quality streaming option depending on matchups. The Titans aren't flush with great weapons and are a run-first team. Tannehill will likely function as a game-manager with upside and he's a backup option at best.
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