Expert predictions roundup: Consensus is Eagles win NFC East title

The Eagles are NFC East favorites according to the experts in Las Vegas and around the world making odds for sportsbooks.

The books usually get it right, but the Eagles have a laundry list of unknowns heading into 2024, ranging from their new coordinators and schemes, some new big ticket veterans like Saquon Barkley and Bryce Huff, and rookies who'll be expected to do a lot this season like Quinyon Mitchell.

What are "experts" across the NFL media landscape predicting for the Eagles? Will they win the division? Make it to the Super Bowl? Here's a few snippets from predictions we found:

NFC East winners — ESPN

A simulation over at ESPN saw the Eagles win the NFC East but get totally upset in the first round of the postseason.

The Eagles went on a five-game winning streak to end the season. That included a crucial 22-10 win in Week 17 in which their pass rush devastated quarterback Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' passing attack to snatch the NFC East title away from Dallas via head-to-head tiebreaker.
But the momentum didn't carry over into the postseason. Though they entered as the No. 2 seed, the Eagles saw their season end abruptly at the hands of Williams and the Bears, who pulled off a surprising upset. Dallas didn't fare any better, as the Cowboys lost in a playoff blowout for the second straight season, falling 37-14 to the San Francisco 49ers. [ESPN]

Another note from an ESPN predictions article — the Eagles have a 79.4% chance of making it to the postseason, and are projected to have 10.5 wins.

NFC East winners — NFL.com

The NFL's own website polled 28 of its writers and 24 of them picked the Eagles to win the NFC East, with the other four going with Dallas.

The NFC East hasn’t had a repeat champion since the Eagles won three straight following realignment in 2002. Our analysts see that trend continuing this season (sorry, Cowboys!), with Philadelphia receiving 24 first-place votes and earning a playoff spot on all 28 of our analysts’ ballots. Dallas is still predicted to be the conference’s fifth seed, receiving the most total points among all NFC wild-card contenders. A playoff berth would be nothing new for Dallas, which is one of just 10 teams with double-digit playoff appearances this millennium. However, of those 10 teams, all but the Cowboys have advanced to a conference title game; in fact, the other nine have all won at least one Lombardi Trophy since 2000. [NFL.com]

NFC East winners — SI.com

Connor Orr at Sports Illustrated predicted all 272 regular season NFL games and chalked the Eagles up for 10 wins — good for an NFC East crown with the Cowboys projected to win nine. A look at some of his reasoning:

The Eagles are better than the Dallas Cowboys by a decent margin, without the salary cap stressors. If they are able to manage ego, I don’t see how they’d miss the chance to reclaim the NFC East crown. Part of the reason I like the Eagles to stabilize is that they are lacking the kind of brutal stretch on the schedule that threw them out of emotional equilibrium a year ago. They finish the season with a handful of what we’ll term winnable games, and I think some of the pressure will be passed off to a Dallas team that has the look and feel of a powder keg. [Sports Illustrated]

NFC Wildcard — CBS

Over at CBS the prediction isn't as bright, as John Breech expects the Cowboys to be the first repeat division winner in 20 years.

The Eagles (-140) are actually the favorites to win the NFC East this year, so taking the Cowboys is somewhat bold. The only problem with the Cowboys winning the division is that Jerry Jones would take all the credit for it ("I told you we we're all-in"), even though he did his best to derail the team this offseason. [CBS]

In a separate post, Breech says the Eagles will be 9-8 and be the final Wildcard team in the conference.

12-game winners — The Athletic

Beat writer Brooks Kubena predicted the Eagles would win 12 games earlier this offseason, and in a recent predictions roundup he says he is sticking with that choice, one that would put the Eagles in the postseason as division-winners. According to Kubena it all comes down to an improved Jalen Hurts:

Hurts was noticeably more polished in training camp. He was decisive, effective and dangerous on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive talent could produce, at the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this system properly. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated patience with his head coaches so long as there’s confidence in a competitive path forward. But it’s worth wondering whether a 10-win season would be considered a regression under Nick Sirianni. [The Athletic]

11-game winners — 33rd team

NFL analyst Dan Pizzuta took a gambling-minded approach to predicting the 2024 regular season, looking at whether he felt each of the 32 NFL teams could hit their over/under projection. He expects the Eagles to exceed the 10.5 wins Vegas handicaps for them.

Despite all that went wrong for the Philadelphia Eagles last season, Jalen Hurts was still a top-10 quarterback by EPA per play and ranked 11th in success rate. With an improvement in the offensive system, that unit could look more in rhythm than it did at times in 2023.
If that’s the case, along with an explosive running game, the Eagles could again consistently be one of the best offenses in the league. This offense was eighth in EPA per drive last season but did not always feel like it. [33rd team]

For what it's worth, he has the Cowboys over 9.5 wins as well.

Contenders (mostly) — USA Today

Over at USA Today, they had their six NFL writers make predictions for how the season would go, and there were varying expectations for the Eagles.

NFC East winners (3)
NFC Wildcard (2)
Miss playoffs (1)

One of the writers — Tyler Dragon — picked the Eagles both to win the NFC East and the NFC, falling to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. They had a consensus prediction of a 11-6 record for Philly.

A hot take — Fox Sports

Chris Brussard picked the Eagles to win the NFC East, by Nick Wright sees the Birds not only missing the playoffs, but finishing third in the division behind Dallas and Washington with Nick Sirianni sent packing — a link to his reasoning is here.

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