May 19, 2016
Are the 2016 Philadelphia Eagles going to be Super Bowl contenders? Gambling websites certainly don't think so. According to Canada-based bovada.lv betting odds, there are only three teams in the NFL with a lower over-under on total wins:
| Team | Over-under | Team | Over-under |
| Panthers | 10.5 | Bills | 8 |
| Packers | 10.5 | Jets | 8 |
| Patriots | 10.5 | Falcons | 7.5 |
| Steelers | 10.5 | Bears | 7.5 |
| Seahawks | 10.5 | Jaguars | 7.5 |
| Cardinals | 9.5 | Rams | 7.5 |
| Bengals | 9.5 | Buccaneers | 7.5 |
| Cowboys | 9.5 | Redskins | 7.5 |
| Colts | 9.5 | Lions | 7 |
| Chiefs | 9.5 | Dolphins | 7 |
| Vikings | 9.5 | Saints | 7 |
| Broncos | 9 | Chargers | 7 |
| Ravens | 8.5 | Eagles | 7 |
| Texans | 8.5 | 49ers | 5.5 |
| Raiders | 8.5 | Titans | 5.5 |
| Giants | 8 | Browns | 4.5 |
• As you can see, only the 49ers, Titans, and Browns have a lower over-under on wins than the Eagles. That's bad company, obviously.
• If you add up the total number of wins above, you get 263.5. Only 256 regular season games will be won in 2016, and even less if there are ties. So what does that mean? It means that gambling sites know that delusional fans are more likely to bet the over on their own team, so those numbers get pushed a little higher. The under is usually the more solid bet.
• Gambling sites also know that Cowboys fans are the most delusional on the planet, hence their over-under of 9.5. Only five teams have a higher number, which is laughable.
• No matter what the team, 4.5 wins as a projection is an extremely low number. The Browns aren't that bad. If Josh McCown starts over RG3, I believe they can be at least semi-competent. Take the over.
• I think 7 is a good number for the Eagles. However, I think 6 is a lot more likely than 8. I also think 7.5 is about right for the Redskins, but again, I think 7 is more likely than 8. The Giants' number is too high at 8, and the Cowboys at 9.5, again is laughable. In other words, in the NFC East, I'd go under, under, under, and under.
• The Jaguars showed improvement on offense last season, and most believe they had a tremendous draft, which is fine and good. But listing them at 7.5 is too high. They won five games last year, and they've won 14 games the last four years. Expecting them to make a three game jump is unrealistic. Under.
• The Bears at 7.5? The Bears are trash. Under all day.
• I like the over on the Texans at 8.5. That's a really good defense, and even if you're not a believer in Brock Osweiler, they won nine games a year ago with terrible quarterback play.
• The Patriots haven't won fewer than 12 games since 2009. Obviously, their number is 10.5 because Tom Brady was suspended for four games for being a cheater. Three of the Patriots' first four games are at home. If they can win two of the games Brady is away, 11 wins is a very attainable number. Take the over.
