November 27, 2016
Michael Perez/AP
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz patrols the sideline prior to his team's most recent home win over Atlanta.
The Eagles will play host to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Monday as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive and remain undefeated at home.
Much has been made about how much differently the defense has played at the Linc – and it most certainly has – but that's hardly the only reason the Birds have excelled at home this season. Carson Wentz has been much better in Philly than he has on the road,
| W-L | CMP% | TD-INT | RTG | SK/G | Y/A | |
| HOME | 4-0 | 65.2 | 5-2 | 92.6 | 1.0 | 7.18 |
| ROAD | 1-5 | 62.1 | 6-5 | 79.3 | 2.8 | 6.21 |
You're probably saying to yourself, "But, Matt, he's a rookie. Isn't it safe to assume they all struggle, to some degree, on the road in Year One?"
Not so fast. Dak Prescott, for example, is posting much better passing numbers on the road than at home. He's completion percentage is well over 70 percent and his passer rating is a whopping 19 points higher (119.5 compared to 100.3) away from Jerry's World.
Marcus Mariota had an even greater differential last season (105.3 rating on the road; 79.6 at home), as did fellow first-round pick Jameis Winston (91.7 on the road; 76.1 at home).
And how about the guy Wentz has drawn the most comparisons to early on in his career, Ben Roethlisberger? Even in that record-setting 2004 rookie season, he was better on the road than at home...
| W-L | CMP% | TD-INT | RTG | SK/G | Y/A | |
| HOME | 7-7 | 64.38 | 8-5 | 96.3 | 1.1 | 8.77 |
| ROAD | 7-6-1 | 68.46 | 9-6 | 100.0 | 2.6 | 9.00 |
Wentz, on the other hand, has excelled in Philly. If he can keep it up and finish his rookie season undefeated at home, it could soon be time for the city to do a little re-branding.
But while winning at home is great, you have to be able to win on the road in the NFL if you want to be successful. Just ask those QBs listed above. Maybe we can ask Narrative to come up with a slightly more balanced loop moving forward.
In the meantime, here's what our staff envisions happening on Monday night, starting with the Dr. Ford of stick figures, Jimmy Kempski.
TV: ESPN | RADIO: 94.1 WIP
SPREAD: Eagles (-3.5) | TOTAL: 47.5 (via topbet.eu)
| Team | YPA allowed | Record |
| 2008 Lions | 8.8 | 0-16 |
| 2015 Saints | 8.7 | 7-9 |
| 1990 Patriots | 8.7 | 1-15 |
| 2016 Packers | 8.6 | TBD |
| 2004 Chiefs | 8.5 | 7-9 |
| 2011 Panthers | 8.4 | 6-10 |
| 2000 Seahawks | 8.4 | 6-10 |
| 1991 Rams | 8.4 | 3-13 |
Those teams combined for a record of 30-82, which, hang on, let me check with my team of scientists... yes, I've confirmed with them that that's bad.
And then, of course, the Eagles have been perfect so far at home, where they are 4-0, while the Packers are 1-4 on the road.
Heading into the season, I figured the Monday Night game against the Packers would be the Eagles’ toughest home matchup of the season. Now? It’s a game they absolutely should win.
The Birds definitely have holes, some of them pretty major (like at the wide receiver position). But Green Bay is an extremely flawed team on both sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers is excellent, but his weapons are nothing to write home about either. And on defense, Green Bay has allowed 33, 31, 47, and 42 points the last four weeks. It doesn’t hurt that the Eagles are finally getting a schedule break, with the Pack on the road for the third consecutive week.
The Eagles have played better at home this season, and that will continue on Monday night against what is an inferior opponent right now.
(Sorry, Aaron. I still love you.)
The Eagles are still the home team on Monday night, right? Good, then you should expect a Birds' victory over the Rodgers and Co. at the Linc. It's been a tad ridiculous how much better Doug Pederson's team has played at home (4-0) compared to on the road (1-5).
| HOME | PER GAME | AWAY |
| 27.0 | POINTS FOR | 22.2 |
| 9.5 | POINTS AGAINST | 24.7 |
| +17.5 | DIFFERENTIAL | -2.5 |
| 374.3 | YARDS GAINED | 317.8 |
| 281.0 | YARDS ALLOWED | 370.3 |
| +.75 | TURNOVER DIFF | +.17 |
I already talked about Wentz's home success in the intro, and that's something you should expect to continue on Monday night against a Packers defense that's allowing and NFL-worst 8.6 yards per attempt – not to mention the 105.5 passer rating they're allowing, second highest in the league.
I don't know how much of a difference that will make if the Eagles receivers can't hold on to the ball, but now that Paul Turner is on the 53-man roster everything will be fine. And while the absence of Ryan Mathews could loom large with Darren Sproles still nursing a broken rib back to health, it should be another home win for the Birds.
