October 28, 2016
Ah, Dallas Week in the Delaware Valley. That time of year when it really starts to feel like football season outside. The air is brisk, the leaves are changing, and ... wait, is that Tony Romo's skeleton hanging from a tree?
Guys, I found Tony Romo hanging out in MontCo. Doesn't look like he's going to start against the @Eagles... pic.twitter.com/2cmaUMo5BT
— Matt Mullin (@matt_mullin) October 27, 2016
On Sunday, the Eagles will face a Cowboys team that many thought would struggle to contend for the NFC East once Romo went down in the preseason and was ruled out for half the season.
Instead, as the veteran quarterback begins throwing again in practice, his team finds itself alone in first place atop the division thanks in large part to the play of his replacement, Dak Prescott, and rookie running back Ezekial Elliott, the Cowboys' first-round pick out of Ohio State.
The Cowboys face a team not all too different from themselves in Week 8. After all, the Eagles are only a couple of wins from matching the majority of fans' preseason expectations, especially once they traded Sam Bradford and decided to start a rookie of their own, Carson Wentz.
Now, these two teams will meet with first place in the division on the line.
Wentz vs. Prescott. It's the new NFC East. And if the first six games of their respective careers are any indication, this is the first of many times we'll see these two young, talented quarterbacks battle. In other words...
TV: NBC | RADIO: 94.1 WIP
SPREAD: Dallas -4 | TOTAL: 43.0 (via topbet.eu)
| Opponent | My pick | Correct? |
| Browns | Eagles | YES |
| Bears | Eagles | YES |
| Steelers | Steelers | NO |
| Lions | Eagles | NO |
| Redskins | Eagles | NO |
| Vikings | Vikings | NO |
| TOTAL | 2-4 |
In other words, the Eagles have been nearly impossible to predict so far this season. When you think they're going to win, they lose. When you're a little down on them, they win.
The Eagles and Cowboys are two evenly matched teams. The Cowboys have the better offense; the Eagles have the better defense. Ultimately, this game will come down to what the Eagles' defense can do to the Cowboys' offense.
The Eagles are tied with the Seahawks for the most sacks per game in the NFL, while the Cowboys have allowed just nine sacks so far this season. That's third best in the NFL.
The Cowboys try to keep things simple for Dak Prescott, often moving the pocket or giving him quick, easy throws, while applying a heavy dose of the run game. That approach has worked, as Prescott has not made big mistakes in the passing game while avoiding being hit.
Can the Eagles be the first team to consistently pressure Prescott? To do so, they'll have to get the Cowboys behind the sticks by stopping the run on first and second down. I believe the Cowboys will run the ball effectively enough on the early downs to keep the sticks moving, especially if Bennie Logan cannot play.
My Eagles picks through six weeks have been pretty mediocre, decidedly an upgrade over last season: 2-4 overall and 3-3 against the spread. Regardless of any improvements, a .500 record doesn’t cut it for anyone but Jeff Fisher, including gamblers.
Unafraid to seek guidance, I headed over to ESPN.com and saw what the experts at the Worldwide Leader have to offer. The hope, and this admittedly might be a longshot, is that some of their wisdom rubs off on me…
Insert thinking face emoji here. Let’s scroll up to see who gave the Birds the nod.
I’ll happily join the former Eagles quarterback (and current unofficial advisor) on Jaws Island. The Cowboys are a pretty good team with an interesting quarterback dilemma, but for some reason, the Birds have won a lot at Jerry World recently. As of late, it’s The Linc where the Cowboys have taken care of business.
And if Jaws and I are wrong?
Last week, I took the Vikings in a close one over the Eagles despite the fact that I outlined fairly logical reason as to why I felt the Birds could pull off the upset. Here's what I wrote:
On paper, this is a game that the Vikings should win. But, to continue with the long view approach I just outlined above, there's something jumping out at me about the Eagles this week. Immediately following the Lions loss, it hit me like a ton of bricks: Detroit was a team in desperate need of a win, facing an Eagles team that was undefeated and flying high after hitting the bye as the hottest team in football.
Sound familiar?
I ultimately went with the Vikings because – I kid you not – I didn't want to take the Eagles three weeks in a row, only to have them lose all three. I didn't want to look like too much of a homer. That was weak. I should've stuck with my gut, listened to the truthiness behind what it was telling me and not let my dumb brain get the better of me.
I'm not going to make that mistake twice.
This week, the Eagles are (again) facing a team coming off a bye; they're (again) facing a team that is riding high after running off a bunch of wins in a row; they're (again) facing a quarterback who, much like their own QB, was not expected to be the starter when training camp opened; and they're (again) coming in as the underdog.
But that's where the similarities stop. While the Vikings were decidedly stronger on one side of the ball than the other (defense), the Cowboys are much more balanced. Their offense is clearly superior to the defense, but because of how they're able to run the ball and control the clock, they've been able to hold opponents to 17.8 points per game, seventh-best in the NFL.
In large part, that's been due to their ability to convert on third down – they're fourth in the league in third down conversions at 47 percent – which has led to a nearly six-and-a-half minute edge in time of possession per game. That's nearly two full minutes better than the team in second, the Eagles.
Don't worry, I'm not letting my brain take over my pick, because unlike in their first six games, the Cowboys will finally face one of the top defenses in the league.
| WK | OPP | YPG | RK | PPG | RK | RESULT |
| 1 | vs. NYG | 361.0 | 19th | 20.1 | 10th | L; 19-20 |
| 2 | at WAS | 363.3 | 20th | 23.1 | 18th | W; 27-23 |
| 3 | vs. CHI | 350.4 | 12th | 24.1 | 20th | W; 31-17 |
| 4 | at SF | 407.6 | 30th | 31.3 | 31st | W; 24-17 |
| 5 | vs. CIN | 354.6 | 15th | 23.1 | 18th | W; 28-14 |
| 6 | at GB | 314.0 | 7th | 20.5 | 11th | W; 30-16 |
| 8 | vs. PHI | 307.0 | 5th | 14.7 | 3rd | ??? |
The Eagles defense is far from perfect -- they lost starting CB Ron Brooks for the season and will be without defensive tackle Bennie Logan, one of their best run stoppers. And the fact that they've been allowing opponents to convert third downs at a 40 percent rate, which puts them in the bottom half of the league, is a concern.
But when it's Birds vs. 'Boys in JerryWorld, you can throw all logic out the window. Trust your gut. I am.
