April 03, 2017
After a long year of profiling college prospects every Saturday since August, followed by attending the Senior Bowl, the Combine, and the NFL Owners' Meetings, my opinion on prospects isn't likely to change much from now until the start of the 2017 NFL Draft.
A common request I get in my weekly Eagles chats is to list in order from 10 to one what I would do with the first-round pick if I were the Eagles. To note, this is not necessarily what I think the Eagles will do, but this would be my personal priority list in Round One.
We'll put White and Conley in the same bucket.
White is an athletic corner with very good change-of-direction skills. He's a good cover corner, but not as physical as guys like Marshon Lattimore and Marlon Humphrey, both of whom we'll get to below. White was clearly among the best players at the Senior Bowl this year.
He also served as LSU's primary punt returner. He has taken a return to the house in each of the last three years. That skill should be attractive to a team that is probably going to lose Darren Sproles after the 2017 season.
Meanwhile, Conley needs work as a tackler, but his coverage skills are very good. Here are Conley's coverage numbers the last two seasons:
| Gareon Conley | Targeted | Comp | Yards | TD-INT |
| 2015 | 58 | 21 | 412 | 3-2 |
| 2016 | 43 | 14 | 174 | 1-4 |
| TOTAL | 101 | 35 | 586 | 4-6 |
Allowing 35 completions on 101 targets is pretty good, right?
Still, while I like White and Conley quite a bit as players, I believe that either player would be a disappointing outcome. The only way this would happen if I were the GM would be if the following players went off the board from 1-13: Myles Garrett, Jonathan Allen, Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Solomon Thomas, Derek Barnett, Marshon Lattimore, O.J. Howard, Reuben Foster, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, John Ross, and Marlon Humphrey.
You know that annoying phrase when there's a player available who shouldn't be, and people go, "I'd run the card up to the podium?" Well, if those 13 guys went off the board 1-13, I'd sad walk the Tre'Davious White or Gareon Conley cards up to the podium.
If a quarterback went off the board anywhere from 1-13, there would be high fives all around.
Oddly enough, I think Williams is the best wide receiver in this class, by the absolute slimmest of margins. If you like Corey Davis or even John Ross more, you'll get absolutely no argument from me. However, Williams' skill set very closely resembles that of Alshon Jeffery's, so I would be more inclined to see Davis or Ross, again, both of whom are extremely close to Williams, in my opinion, as better fits.
Yes, Jeffery is only on a one-year deal, however, the Eagles will have the opportunity to franchise him (or get a long-term deal done with him) at the end of the season if he plays well, as I expect he will. Would it be the worst thing to have two guys like Jeffery in the Eagles' offense? No, but if I'm the Eagles, I'd prefer a receiver who can complement Jeffery's skill set, not mirror it.
While Zach Ertz can be frustrating at times because of his aversion to contact and blocking that still needs improvement, he is still very clearly a skilled tight end with legitimate top-end starter receiving ability. If the Eagles were to spend a resource as important as a first-round pick on Howard, they better have a plan to get both Ertz and Howard on the field for the majority of their snaps.
Should they draft a player like Howard, it would signal that the Eagles are committed to putting two tight ends on the field as their base offense. If that's the plan, fine. Go ahead and take Howard. Any novice football observer could see how good Howard looked in the week of practices at the Senior Bowl. In fact, he was voted the week's best player in practice by NFL scouts. I wouldn't disagree. He has good hands and speed to go along with his ideal size for the position and has drawn comparisons to Jimmy Graham. I don't like that comparison, personally, as Howard is also a good blocker.
But again, drafting a tight end in the first round would be an awful use of resources if he's not going to play a ton.
Humphrey has great athleticism, and at 6'1, 196, he has ideal size. He is also as physical a corner as you'll find in this draft, and is a legitimate big hitter who looks to intimidate opposing receivers. He's big, fast, and ill-tempered.
The biggest concern with Humphrey is the deep ball, as he gave up a number of them in 2016. Still, he's only 20 years old. Those issues might not be correctable with a player who is not as gifted as Humphrey, but a guy with Humphrey's natural ability should be able to get that fixed.
I mean, the guy ran a freaking 4.22.
But can he play football? Yes. In 2016, Ross had 81 catches for 1150 yards and 17 TDs. While his calling card is deep speed, Ross also has good hands, he can work the short-to-intermediate routes, and get yards after the catch. He was also a dangerous kick returner, taking four kicks to the house in his career at Washington. He's hardly a one-trick pony.
The Eagles signed Torrey Smith to be a deep threat, but that in no way should impede the Eagles from taking a player with other-worldly speed like Ross if they like him.
The only reason Ross might even be available at 14 is because he has an extensive history of injuries.
Ross' injury history includes:
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) February 10, 2017
Left ACL tear
Left meniscus
Right meniscus
Microfracture surgery
now shoulder surgery post-Combine https://t.co/EtWAMLJ9Fs
The Eagles would have to feel comfortable with Ross' injury history to take him at 14. At the NFL Annual Meetings, Doug Pederson said he wasn't very concerned with Ross' injuries. We'll see.
Davis has size, speed to be a downfield threat, YAC ability, and he runs great routes. If there's one knock, it's that he'll have occasional drops, however, those become forgivable because he makes so many improbable acrobatic catches. As a fit in the Eagles' offense, you can play him inside or outside, and just watch him produce.
Foster is an awesome player, who is likely to be gone by the time the Eagles pick at 14. If he's still there, however, he may be too good to pass up. He's an intimidating thumper, but he also has speed, ability in coverage, and was a special teams standout while he waited his turn to be "the guy" in the middle of the Crimson Tide defense. He and Jordan Hicks would be an outstanding pair of linebackers.
Barnett is a thick, strong defensive end who reminds me a little of Brandon Graham. Barnett is equally effective against the run as he is as a pass rusher, and has been an impact player since his freshman year. In just three seasons at Tennessee, Barnett broke the all-time career school sack record that was previously held by some guy named Reggie White. No big deal.
This draft class is considered to be very strong at edge rusher and defensive backs. I believe that the edge rushers taken in the first round will have a bigger impact than the corners taken in the first round. Conversely, I believe that the corners taken later in the draft will have a bigger impact than the edge rushers taken later. Given the choice in the first round, I'd go edge rusher, and Barnett is a great one.
If somehow Lattimore, Solomon Thomas, or Jonathan Allen fall to somewhere around the 10th pick, which is something I don't anticipate happening, I would be all over trying to trade up for any of those three guys.
Lattimore was only a redshirt sophomore last season who has participated in under 20 games in his career at OSU, partly due to hamstring issues. 2016 was Lattimore's only season as a starter, when he had 41 tackles, four interceptions, and nine pass breakups. Lattimore is a phenomenal athlete, doing a great job of staying in phase with opposing receivers out of tight press coverage.
According to cfbfilmroom.com, Lattimore was targeted 36 times in 2016, and gave up just 13 receptions, or approximately one per game. He allowed one TD while collecting four INTs. He was also credited with 36 tackles, and just one missed tackle. That's outstanding.
In recent draft history, the Eagles have had by far the most success when they have traded up for their draft targets. So go get the impact player if you can.
Like White and Conley above, we'll put Thomas and Allen in the same bucket.
Thomas doesn't have eye-popping numbers (8 sacks in 2016, 3.5 sacks in 2015), but he was a disruptive force along the defensive line for Stanford. When you watch him play, he's just so good.
The question that NFL teams will have to answer is, where do you put him? Is he too light at 273 pounds to play inside? Is he too short (6'3) with arms not ideal enough (33") to take with a top five pick as an edge rusher? There's a reasonable chance that Thomas could fall a bit further than he should because he isn't a perfect positional fit.
From the Eagles' perspective, he could be a guy who can play DE on early downs, and then kick inside to beat guards on obvious passing downs. Of course, that's what the Eagles just signed Vinny Curry to a five-year deal worth $46.25 million to be, so there's that. Or maybe you just stick him out at RDE, leave him there, and tell him to hurt quarterbacks.
As for Allen, there may be some concern that there were so many good players around him in Alabama's defense that it was difficult for opposing offenses to key on him. Star defenders at other schools don't get that same benefit. Still, Allen is a beast. In 2016, he had 69 tackles, 10.5 sacks, and 16 tackles for loss. Like Thomas, he is a guy who can play DE or DT in the Eagles' defensive front.
A front four of Graham, Fletcher Cox, Curry and Thomas/Allen on obvious passing downs could be a scary unit.
Not mentioned (purposely) in my top 10: Any running backs (although Leonard Fournette as a luxury pick would be tempting), or trading back.
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