October 09, 2015
A quarter of the season in the books, and Eagles fans are left hoping it was all a bad nightmare.
Unfortunately, it wasn't. They are 1-3 on the season. Nothing seems to be going right. And all those moves Chip Kelly made in the offseason? Well, they're not looking so hot right about now.
This week, they face the Saints at the Linc in just their second home game of the season -- thanks, Pope Francis -- and it's a matchup between two teams who are hoping to prove their sub-.500 record represents a poor start, and not a bigger, more longterm problem.
The Saints are allowing a league worst 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and that bodes well for Sam Bradford, especially when you consider that two of the four QBs they faced were named Jameis Winston and Brandon Weeden.
Could it be the week the Eagles offense finally looks like the one we became accustomed to watching in the first two seasons under Kelly? Perhaps. Here are our picks:
TV: FOX | RADIO: 94.1 WIP
SPREAD: Eagles -5 | TOTAL: 49.0 (via topbet.eu)
Over at Bleeding Green Nation, six of the seven writers picked the Eagles to beat the Saints, with Brandon Lee Gowton being rogue writer. At The Inquirer, Zach Berman and Jeff McLane both picked the Eagles to win, but neither think the team will cover the five-point spread.
Don't even listen to me anymore when it comes to predicting Eagles games. On the season, I'm 0-4. But, since you're already here, I may as throw some analysis your way. In this week's hierarchy/obituary, we noted the following about the Saints:
In 2012, the Saints defense set a dubious all-time NFL record when they allowed 7042 yards of total offense, which was just over 440 per game. That season, they gave up 6.5 yards per play. So far in 2015, the Saints D is allowing 381.5 yards per game, which is bad, but certainly not nearly as historically bad as they were in 2012.
However, they are allowing 6.5 yards per play this season like they did in 2012. No team has given up that many yards per play since those 2012 Saints.
In other words, to be more blunt, their defense stinks.
Not only is the Saints' defense bad, but they, like the Eagles, are very banged up along their offensive line. LT Terron Armstead and LG Tim Lelito have not practiced yet this week, and All-Pro RG Jahri Evans has been limited with a knee injury that caused him to miss the last two games.
Not that it matters -- The Eagles got big breaks when they faced the injury-depleted Cowboys and Redskins, and still could not take care of business. Still, if there's one team that the Eagles can start to get something going against on offense it would be the Saints. And that has to happen at some point, um, right?
The Eagles are a bad football team. Unlike Jimmy, I actually think Chip Kelly is right that the Birds are only a competent kicking game away from being 3-1. Like Jimmy, I think that comment completely misses what is important here: The Eagles offense, Kelly’s offense, looks every bit like a bottom-five unit. That was unthinkable before the season started. How are they possibly favored by 5.5 points?
I have a weird feeling about this Saints game, though. New Orleans is coming off an emotional overtime win at home over Dallas (and Brandon Weeden), so they could be due for a bit of a letdown. They are also the same team that lost in the Superdome to the woeful Bucs and ruined more than half of America’s suicide pools. Drew Brees has experienced a lot of success in his career against the Eagles, but I think Kelly and co. put together a pretty good all-around performance and win by a couple of touchdowns. Look for former Saints Malcolm Jenkins and Darren Sproles to make a few big plays against their former running mates.
I feel like a broken record making these predictions. I keep picking the Eagles, thinking this is going to be the week the offense finally gets it right, only to be let down time after time. At least I'm not 0-4 on the season (like another PhillyVoice writer I know), but 1-3 makes me just as bad as the Eagles.
It's strange to live in a world in which Chip Kelly's offense -- not his defense -- has been the bigger issue. But against the Saints, even though they also come into Week 5 with a 1-3 record, both units will need to be successful for the Birds to pick up their second win of the season. Drew Brees no longer has Jimmy Graham to throw to, but he's still a dangerous QB despite the team's overall struggles. Even without Graham, Brees is averaging 304 passing yards/game. That's pretty impressive considering their rushing attack (28th in NFL) has been about as effective as the Eagles (30th in NFL).
The matchups are in the Birds' favor, and if they can't score against a Saints defense that's allowing 26 points/game and over 123 rushing yards/game, it might really be time to give up on this team. I'm going to hold out hope for one more week and predict that the Eagles pick up their first home win since Nov. 23 (Week 12) of last season.
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
