September 19, 2020
After a disappointing result in Week 1, the Eagles will be back on the field on Sunday — this time in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field, albeit without fans — to take on the Rams in their 2020 home opener.
The Birds will look to avoid an 0-2 start against a team they're often compared to in the Rams, who took Jared Goff first overall in 2016 one pick before the Eagles took Carson Wentz. They also have first-time NFL head coaches who were hired a year apart in Doug Pederson and Sean McVay.
After meeting twice in the last three years — Philly is 2-0 in those meetings — the two teams will play at the Linc for the first time on Sunday, and *knocks on wood* it will hopefully be the first meeting between the two where Wentz plays the entire game. In the first, Wentz tore his ACL and was unable to finish. In the second, Nick Foles got the start with Wentz already out due to a stress fracture in his back.
But that's old news. The only thing that matters here is what happens for 60 minutes on Sunday. We've already taken a look at some matchups to watch, broken down the latest injury news and rounded up 70-plus predictions from around the sports world — plus offered up some of our own. We've also provided a look at the ever-evolving point spread for this one, which opened with the Eagles as a 2.5-point favorite before swinging in favor of the Rams. By mid-week, it was a pick-em, and now, the Birds are back to being a 1- to 1.5-point favorite at the three PA sports books over at TheLines.com.
Now, let's take a look at some numbers to keep an eye on in Week 2 in the form of our five weekly over/unders...
[A quick reminder for those new to our over/unders: Unless it's explicitly stated, these are my own over/unders based on how I think the players will perform on Sunday — and the advice that follows is where I would put my money if I had to. They are not all actual numbers you can bet on, but we'll let you know when they are.]
That's the current consensus total over at TheLines.com, and based on our writers' predictions, it seems about right, with four of our writers taking the over and three liking the under. And when you average those totals out, it comes to 45.3 points. So, pretty much right on it.
There isn't much data to go on for this one, with each team having played just one game, but there's a good chance we'll see more offense out of the Eagles this week after they came flying out of the gate with 17 early points against Washington and then failed to score for the final two thirds of the game. With Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders returning on offense, the Birds should get a boost in that area. And it's hard to imagine Carson Wentz playing much worse.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams will certainly present a bigger challenge for the defense than Washington did — of course, it didn't help that the Birds continually seemed to give Washington great field position all day, a mistake they would be wise to avoid making twice. But all the Rams really need to do to put this in danger of hitting the over is score over 20 points, and that's certainly something I could see them doing on Sunday.
The bigger unknown in this one is the Eagles offense, but we see them bouncing back in Week 2. And since I have the highest projected total among our writers at 51, I'm going with the over here.
OVER.
There's been a lot of talk this week about the possible damage Aaron Donald can inflict on the Eagles offense. Here's what Jimmy Kempski wrote about Donald in his five matchups to watch:
Donald is the best defensive player in football, and whoever is No. 2 on the list isn't really all that close, in my view. Over his last 33 games (2018-present), Donald has 34 sacks (more than one per game), six forced fumbles, 46 tackles for loss (he led the NFL in that category in both 2018 and 2019), and 69 QB hits. He has put up those numbers, despite constant double teams.
Donald is an absolute wrecking ball with elite speed, power, technique, intelligence, and motor.
That's not exactly the kind of player you want to face a week after allowing eight sacks to Washington in the opener. But that was also a very good defensive front, and getting Lane Johnson back should help protect Carson Wentz. As should the return of Miles Sanders, which should allow the Birds to run the ball more in this one. Despite getting out to that early lead over Washington, the Eagles ran the ball just 17 times for 57 yards (more on that in a minute).
Still, much of the onus here is on Wentz, who seems intent on extending every play rather than throwing the ball away when there's nothing open and a rusher is bearing down on him. That tendency is not going away overnight, and it may be on Doug Pederson to draw up some more quick-release plays to try to get this offense rolling after last week's debacle. Overall, I think the Rams' sack total will be considerably lower than Washington's last Sunday.
That being said, I still think Donald gets a pair this week. One on a coverage sack and the other on a bull rush where he breaks right through the line and Wentz has no choice but to duck and cover.
OVER.
The Eagles were a decent rushing team in 2019 (121.2 yards/game) despite the loss of Week 1 starter Jordan Howard for much of the season. That was in large part due to the emergence of Miles Sanders, who was absent from the 2020 opener. And perhaps that's why the Birds finished with their lowest rushing total in a game since Week 2 of last season.
As we already mentioned, Sanders (hamstring) will be back this week, but it remains to be seen whether or not he's on a pitch count. The Penn State product said he feels "100 percent," but that doesn't mean Doug Pederson and Co. will just give him a full complement of carries. Instead, they'll likely ease Sanders back into things after he missed much of training camp, with Boston Scott and Corey Clement seeing some action as well.
Still, it's hard to imagine the Eagles don't run the ball more than they did a week ago (17 times) unless L.A. jumps out to a big lead and the Birds are forced to play catch-up. And with Sanders back, you have to think they do so with more success.
The Rams allowed 136 rushing yards to Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in their win over Dallas last week, but that was on just 27 carries (5.03 YPA). Pederson would be wise to try to get the ground game working against the Rams — and maybe try to run the ball the in the opposite direction of Aaron Donald.
OVER.
DeSean Jackson is not a volume receiver — everyone knows that — which makes it even more difficult for him to have an impact on a game when he's only on the field for 54% of the snaps. The reason behind his lack of playing time last week had to do with the Eagles' desire to keep him fresh and healthy this season after seeing him miss almost all of last season following a stellar 2019 opener in which he caught eight passes for 154 yards and a pair of long touchdowns.
In this year's opener against Washington, he had just two catches for 46 yards. Surprisingly, however, despite his limited number of offensive snaps, Jackson finished tied for second on the team in targets (7), behind only Dallas Goedert (9). Making life even more difficult for Jackson this week will be the fact that he's going up against a secondary that includes Jalen Ramsey.
Jackson's production in this one will likely depend on how much time he spends on the field. I see this as a slightly better game for Jackson than last week's was, and he and Wentz will connect on one of their deep attempts, but he won't have much more. Unless he sees a dramatic bump in playing time, which we don't necessarily see happening, he'll finish with two or three catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. It might not be the kind of production Eagles fans want from the veteran $10 million/year receiver, but it's still a step in the right direction.
UNDER.
The Eagles finished in the bottom half of the league in takeaways each of the last two seasons after being one of the better teams at creating turnovers in the first two years under Doug Pederson and Jim Schwartz. And, unfortunately, against a second-year quarterback and rookie running back in Week 1, the Eagles were unable to force a single turnover, losing the battle 3-0 to Washington on their way to that gross loss.
They'll need to do better on both sides of the ball this week. A pair of interceptions and a lost fumble by Wentz went a long way toward putting the proverbial nail in the Eagles coffin in their opener, and against a much better Rams team, they'll need to be even more careful with the ball. But either way, they'll need to start forcing some turnovers to help give their offense some short fields to work with.
And this week, we think they'll get their first. A Darius Slay interception on a third-and-long pass from Jared Goff. You heard it here first.
OVER.
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