December 06, 2020
The Eagles will take on the Packers in Green Bay late Sunday afternoon with something to play for — there's always something to play for in the NFL. But what exactly that "something" is depends on how you view this franchise and what you think is best for the team moving forward.
Should the Eagles continue to play like they're just a half game out of the NFC East? Or should they be playing like they have the sixth-worst record in the NFL and could have a premium draft pick? Most seem to be of the belief that it's time for the Birds to pack it in, begin playing their younger players, and shift their focus to the future beyond 2020. So far, it doesn't look like Doug Pederson got the memo.
Will that change on Sunday with the Eagles going up against the first-place Packers (as eight-point underdogs)? We've broken down the injuries, offered up our own predictions and rounded up some from the local and national media. Now, as we do every week, let's give you some numbers we'll be keeping an eye on in the form of our five over/unders...
[A quick reminder for those new to our over/unders: Unless it's explicitly stated, these are my own over/unders based on how I think the players/teams will perform on Sunday — and the advice that follows is where I would put my money if I had to. They are not all actual numbers you can bet on, but we'll let you know when they are.]
That's the current total being offered at DraftKings, according to TheLines.com, and it feels about right for this game, with one team constantly putting up 30-plus points and the other struggling to score more than 17. The real question in this game is going to come down to which Eagles defense shows up on Sunday, because we pretty much know what we're going to get from the offense at this point.
For example, last week's game against the Seahawks finishing with just 40 total points came as a surprise to many, myself included, but thanks to a strong performance by the defense, including two big fourth-down stops early, the Birds were able to keep the game well in the under range, despite it never really feeling that close. Hell, even a garbage time touchdown wasn't enough to ruin things for total points bettors in this one — unfortunately the same can't be said for those who bet the spread on Monday night.
If the defense can post a similar overall performance against the Packers, then this game should hit the under. That being said, this offense is a bit more well-rounded than the Seahawks, and Aaron Rodgers is playing like an MVP, so the bet here is that the defense ultimately struggles in this one and gives up its first 30-point performance since mid-October. And with the Eagles being the king of the garbage touchdowns lately, I can see a late score from the Carson Wentz and Co. really messing things up for those who take the under.
OVER.
Darius Slay was rightfully critical of himself after getting absolutely torched by DK Metcalf on Monday night and promised to bounce back this week. The only issue? He has an equally difficult matchup against Packers star wideout Davante Adams, who torched the Eagles for 10 catches for 180 yards last year at Lambeau. And it could've been worse, as there's a good chance the Eagles never win that game if Adams isn't hurt for the Packers final drive. That drive took the Packers all the way down to the goal line before Nigel Bradham sealed the win with an interception in the end zone.
Sure, Darius Slay wasn't there for that game — but there's also a chance Slay isn't available for this one either as the key offseason acquisition is questionable with a calf injury. Slay is familiar with Adams from his time with the Lions, and having him in there would be huge for the Eagles, even if he isn't 100%.
Unfortunately, with Slay's status up in the air and the Eagles other cornerbacks leaving quite a bit to be desired, it's easy to see the Packers star wideout going off on Sunday.
OVER.
Last year, a key to the Eagles' win in Lambeau was their stellar run game, with both Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard going off against Green Bay. Unfortunately, that same tandem won't be avail— wait, I'm getting late word that the Eagles really can't quit their former players and have not only re-signed Howard to the practice squad but have elevated him to the active roster for this one. It appears the Birds are hoping lightning can strike twice.
That being said, I wouldn't put my money on the Eagles suddenly becoming a running team unless Doug hands the play-calling off to Duce Staley. Last week, it was Press Taylor calling the plays in the second half. And that, combined with the Eagles playing from behind led to yet another pass-heavy day for the Eagles offense, with Sanders finishing with a season-low six carries for 15 yards. Will the addition of Howard to the game-day roster hurt that?
We don't see Howard as the main obstacle to Sanders hitting the over here. That's his coaches, and their ability to stick with the run and not rely on a slumping Carson Wentz to bring them back. If the Eagles can somehow keep this close, they actually might go with a slightly heavier ground attack, relatively speaking. But after watching them the last few weeks, do you really see that happening?
UNDER.
The Eagles tight end will be returning to the field on Sunday, and normally you'd think that would be a welcome sight for Wentz, but with the way Ertz (ankle) had been playing this season before his injury, it's difficult to know which version of him we'll get.
Ertz hasn't played since Week 6, so he should be plenty rested. And if the Eagles are hoping to trade him this offseason, they'd be wise to get him involved early and often to allow other teams to see that he isn't in a rapid decline. He'll probably get plenty of targets from Wentz, but the question here is whether or not they'll be catchable balls. If they are, Ertz can easily hit the over here.
OVER.
The Packers quarterback is averaging three touchdowns per game this season, but we don't think he's going to hit that number today. The Packers will score four, but two of them will come on the ground. Don't worry fantasy owners, Rodgers will still throw for plenty of yards before this one gets out of reach.
UNDER.
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