April 18, 2024
Cornerback and offensive tackle are the two most likely positions the Philadelphia Eagles will address with their first round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, in whatever order you prefer.
Drafting a corner is straightforward, as that player would have a path to starting immediately as a rookie.
Drafting an offensive tackle is more complicated. There are a handful of tackles who could realistically start in the short-term at RG — where the Eagles have an open starting spot — before eventually taking over for the aging Lane Johnson at RT. There are other first-round tackle prospects who aren't presumed to possess that positional versatility, and are projected to be offensive tackles only.
In my interactions with Eagles fans during the buildup to the draft, most seem to on board with drafting a "RG of the present / RT of the future." It's less common to find fans who like the idea of the Eagles drafting a tackle-only prospect who won't play until Johnson retires. It's the latter bucket that we'll examine here. Let's start with the cons.
• He might not play for a while, possibly for multiple seasons.
Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata form one of the best — if not the best — offensive tackle duos in the NFL. Johnson is still elite, but his play fell off a tiny bit last season. Of course, when you're the best offensive lineman in the world as Johnson arguably was for a half decade or so before last season, that's a hard standard to maintain.
During the 2022 season, Johnson had eyed the 2024 season as his last.
Had the pleasure of listening to Lane Johnson speak about mental health at a small event yesterday. Afterward, he volunteered that he wants to play "maybe two more years" after this season.
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) November 6, 2022
More recently — after the Eagles' playoff loss to the Buccaneers — Johnson said that he thinks he has "a few good years left."
Lane Johnson: “I think I have a few good years left.”
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) January 16, 2024
Johnson will turn 34 in May. For what it's worth, he's under contract for three seasons.
It's really anyone's guess how many more seasons Johnson will play. However long he plays, he'll be at right tackle, and anyone drafted to be his successor will have to wait their turn.
That successor will also be on a cheap rookie contract for four years. If that guy stinks when he eventually gets to play, the Eagles will probably let him walk after those four years, like they did with Andre Dillard. If he's good, he'll be expensive and will have played fewer snaps on his rookie contract than a lot of other players around the league selected in the same draft.
• The Eagles have had success drafting offensive linemen in later rounds.
The Eagles have a master developer in Jeff Stoutland. Are they better served drafting a player at a greater immediate need in the first round and then giving Stoutland a chance to develop a lineman picked in Rounds 2-7 into a quality starter?
• Is a successor at RT already on the team?
The Eagles drafted an offensive tackle in the 2023 draft with a relatively high pick in Tyler Steen at 65th overall. They attempted to convert him to guard, probably because he has short arms. Steen played both at tackle and guard during training camp last summer, and he looked way better at tackle. To be clear, this should not read as an endorsement of Steen as Johnson's successor, but maybe he's actually a tackle and not really a guard?
• Offensive tackles are of high positional importance, and you can pretty much only find them in the draft.
Good offensive tackles are rarely available on the open market and you don't often see them get traded. The mediocre slop that does become available is also usually way overpriced. The Titans, for example, signed Dillard of all people to a near $10 million per year deal last offseason only to watch him predictably stink. They cut him after one year and took an almost $8 million dead money hit to do so.
Quarterback is the most important position on the roster for all 32 teams. Thereafter, at least in Philadelphia, it's the trenches, with the offensive tackle spots arguably coming in at No. 2 after QB.
You can find players at other important positions like edge rusher, defensive tackle, cornerback, and even wide receiver on the free agency and trade markets. You can't often find quarterbacks and offensive tackles. If you don't draft and develop them, you're usually screwed.
• The offensive line in general is probably most responsible for the Eagles' success over the last seven years, mainly because of talent, but also because of continuity.
The Eagles' offensive line was the biggest reason the Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2017, in my opinion. It was probably the best line in the NFL that season, and in the Super Bowl itself, Stoutland called it "synchronized swimming" for the way all five guys were on the same page and working in tandem. The offensive line also carried an otherwise mediocre 2021 team to the playoffs and they dominated during their Super Bowl appearance season in 2022.
Eagles fans have had the fortune of not often having to watch bad offensive line play really since the Andy Reid years, with a few injury-plagued seasons sprinkled in. In 2020, for example, the Eagles suffered a bunch injuries along the offensive line and were forced to play 14 different starting offensive line combinations. They allowed 65 sacks, by far the most in the NFL. Since 2000, 11 teams have allowed 65 or more sacks in a season. Here are those teams, and their win-loss records:
| Year | Team | Sacks allowed |
| 2023 | Giants (6-11) | 85 |
| 2023 | Commanders (4-13) | 65 |
| 2023 | Panthers (2-15) | 65 |
| 2020 | Eagles (4-11-1) | 65 |
| 2016 | Browns (1-15) | 66 |
| 2014 | Jaguars (3-13) | 71 |
| 2006 | Raiders (2-14) | 72 |
| 2005 | Texans (2-14) | 68 |
| 2004 | Bears (5-11) | 66 |
| 2002 | Texans (4-12) | 76 |
| 2001 | Lions (2-14) | 66 |
The combined records of the teams above is 35-143-1 (.198). My conclusion? There's a strong correlation between having a bad offensive line and losing football games. #Analysis.
Building the roster around the offensive line is a boring approach for some, but it has worked for the Eagles.
• Offensive line depth is important.
This bullet point is probably an extension of the last one, but it's also worth noting that the last season Johnson played every game was 2015, when he was 25 years old. Even if the drafted player is a backup initially, odds are he'll still probably get some experience as a rookie.
But also, the Eagles are down three linemen this offseason. Jason Kelce retired, while Jack Driscoll and Sua Opeta left in free agency. Those three guys combined for 48 games played and 24 starts in 2023. The only real offensive line addition this offseason was iOL Matt Hennessy. The Eagles simply need more bodies in the short-term in addition to a Johnson replacement long-term.
And by the way, during the Eagles' Super Bowl season, it wasn't just Nick Foles filling in at an extremely important position. Halapoulivaati Vaitai was the starting LT in place of Jason Peters, and he had an outstanding performance in the NFC Championship Game against Everson Griffen, who had 13 sacks for the Vikings that season.
If Johnson and Jordan Mailata somehow both have three durable seasons and they continue to play at a high level, then the drafted player might have a prolonged stay on the bench. Of course, at least the silver lining in that scenario is that, you know, the Eagles will have three more seasons with the best offensive tackle duo in the league still playing at a high level. They'd sign up for that even if they drafted an offensive tackle in the first round this year.
• It's a strong OT draft
The 2024 draft happens to be loaded with quality offensive tackle prospects. As we have noted here previously, Daniel Jeremiah, for example, has 7 of them in his top 23 prospects:
• Joe Alt, Notre Dame (8)
• Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State (10)
• Troy Fautanu, Washington (11)
• Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State (15)
• JC Latham, Alabama (18)
• Amarius Mims, Georgia (22)
• Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma (23)
Offensive tackles are typically over-drafted because of their positional value. For example, in 2023, Jeremiah had Paris Johnson as his 16th ranked player, Darnell Wright 18th, and Broderick Jones 19th. Johnson got picked 6th, Wright got picked 10th, and Jones got picked 14th.
The Eagles pick 22nd this year. Because there are so many good tackles in this year's draft, one or more of the seven offensive tackles listed above will likely be available when the Eagles pick.
If they wait until next year to address it, (a) the need for a tackle will be greater, (b) the supply very likely won't be as robust, and (c) it's possible the Eagles' pick could be even later in the first round.
• The draftee can learn from Johnson before Johnson is gone.
During the Eagles' pre-draft presser on Tuesday, Howie Roseman expressed the benefit of having generational players in place for the young bucks to learn from.
"I think also when you look at having guys like Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox, for example, you have two options," Roseman explained. "You can tell people stories about work ethic and how guys played and how they led or you can have them watch that. And so for us, when we drafted Cam Jurgens, we were always trying to recruit Jason to keep playing for as long as he felt comfortable playing. But at the same time, having him be able to study how Jason practices, how Jason takes notes, instead of saying, 'Man, Cam, you should have seen how Jason Kelce led, how he practiced, how he takes notes.' We think that gives him the best potential to [maximize his ability]."
Allowing a young offensive tackle to learn from Johnson instead of just hearing about him is an intangible, but one that I believe could indeed make a difference.
I believe that tackle-only prospects are very much in play for the Eagles with their first-round pick, and that the pros outweigh the cons.
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