December 15, 2020
Following the first real look at rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts against an NFL defense, the trade talk surrounding the Eagles now-backup quarterback Carson Wentz has only intensified, despite the fact that a report over the weekend suggested that the team believes the one-time MVP candidate can turn things around this offseason and are not actively looking to trade him.
Some of the reason for that is due to the massive dead cap charge the Eagles would be forced to absorb if they trade him, even if they're able to do so before his $10 million roster bonus is due on the third day of the league year. If you're looking for more information on the Eagles' options regarding Wentz this offseason, I highly recommend checking out Jimmy Kempski's post from Tuesday morning that provides a deep-dive into how much it will cost the team to move on from Wentz and why it feels unlikely that they would do so this offseason, even if they want to.
Beyond Wentz, there's the question of what happens to his bosses, namely head coach Doug Pederson and general manager Howie Roseman. So far, it seems like Roseman's job is much more secure than Pederson's, but neither is a lock to return next season, no matter how the final three weeks of the regular season play out.
Then there's the rookie quarterback. If the team is married to Wentz — and if Hurts' presence was a contributing factor to Wentz's regression this season — then it's hard to imagine a scenario where the second-round pick is back in the fold next season and things just suddenly workout. That's not to say they'll trade Hurts, but isn't bring both he and Wentz back risking the same scenario unfolding again in 2020? And if he continues to play well down the stretch, maybe they decide to move him if the price is right.
Of course, those are all decisions that will be made by people with much more knowledge and inside information than is currently available to some guy who has been locked in his apartment the last nine months. In the meantime, the speculation will rage on. And while no one really knows anything at this point — no matter how much they try to convince you otherwise — let's take a look at what they're saying anyway, because the expert opinions on where the Eagles go from here truly span the entire spectrum...
Over at ESPN, Bill Barnwell took a look at Hurts' performance and what it means for Wentz's future in Philly. Barnwell came away impressed by the rookie, and believes the offense the Eagles ran on Sunday is sustainable in the longterm, if if the current QB situation is not.
Here's a look at why he thinks Hurts is the better option for Doug Pederson's offense right now.
Hurts averaged only 5.6 yards per attempt, which isn't anything to write home about, but he ended the day with the fourth-best QBR (58.5) we've seen from an Eagles starter in a game this season. Why?
He improved the offense by eliminating many of the disastrous plays that have come to define Wentz's season. The former starter had been sacked at least three times in each of his starts and turned the ball over 19 times in 12 games. Facing one of the league's most devastating pass rushes, Hurts wasn't sacked and nearly went the entire game without a turnover before a late fumble gave the Saints a glimmer of hope. He had a would-be interception dropped, but the rookie was mostly safe with the football and didn't create problems by extending plays in places where he couldn't account for everybody around him. That alone is a huge upgrade from Wentz's problems this season.
The threat of Hurts as a runner encouraged Pederson to get more aggressive on fourth downs. Even though the Eagles were stopped on a pair of fourth-down tries, Pederson went for it four times on fourth-and-short. One of those plays, on a fourth-and-2 in the red zone, produced the touchdown pass to Jeffery. Some coaches would have been happy to settle for points against a tough defense with their debuting quarterback in the game, especially after failing on fourth-and-short earlier in the half. Pederson was not, and it helped win his team the game. [espn.com]
But what about beyond this season? We've already mentioned the financial issues that would come along with moving on from Wentz — again, you can get a full breakdown right here — but in a vacuum, who is the better option moving forward?
Over at Bleacher Report, Kalyn Kahler spoke to a number of NFC scouts and executives about what they would do if they were the Eagles. And they came away split over which QB will be the starter in Week 1 of the 2021 season.
"Hard to say," the first NFC scout said. "But if you take a guy in the second round, you are hoping he can become the man. He will need to create a body of work and stay consistent. But yeah, I would imagine [Hurts] has a shot if he keeps up a certain level of play."
"It's 50-50," the NFC executive said. "They stuck with [Wentz] way too long [this season]. Yes, Hurts can be the starter in 2021."
When asked if Hurts is the long-term answer, however, the NFC scout whose team has played the Eagles said: "Not even a little bit. Wentz has proven that [he's the best option]: in 2017 when he was a few games away from an MVP." [...]
Wentz still has fervent believers around the NFL.
"They yanked him as if he is at fault for the lack of talent around him," said the NFC scout whose team has played the Eagles. "Carson is not confident because he has to look over his shoulder and not take hits and, when there is a clean pocket, no one is getting open.
"Play-calling is lackluster as well; no creativity. They got away with it a few years ago because they were talented. Now they're not and they are struggling. Much like the Packers in Mike McCarthy's last few seasons." [bleacherreport.com]
So far, we've been talking about the Eagles needing to decide between Wentz or Hurts, but according to Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the real decision for owner Jeffrey Lurie might come down to Wentz or Pederson. He thinks it's tough to envision a scenario where both are back next season.
If so, the Eagles’ front office has essentially the book on five years of Pederson-Wentz. The marriage has had its ups, but as many downs, and one of the key questions owner Jeffrey Lurie will be asking himself in January is whether it’s worth salvaging.
Based on Wentz’s regression this season, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which both return. Lurie then must assess whether Pederson is chiefly the cause of the quarterback’s slide, or Wentz is his own worst enemy.
There have been, of course, many other variables at play, from poor roster management to staff changes, from injuries to the drafting of Hurts. But the quarterback-coach dynamic, especially when the coach is the offensive play-caller, is one of the foundational parts of any team.
And when considering Pederson’s success with backups (he’s now 11-2 excluding the meaningless season finale in 2017) against his record with Wentz (35-32-1), Lurie could view their partnership as fractured. [inquirer.com]
Perhaps the most interesting part of Jeff's story was this, about how different the offense looked with one vs. the other, and potentially why Pederson's offense ran a lot more smoothly under Hurts. Obviously there's still room for the rookie to grow, but the initial results looked promising.
While it’s fair to question if Pederson is best for Wentz, the same could be asked of the opposite. It’s been long established that Wentz wants a say in game plans, wants freedom at the line to change plays, and can be Type-A stubborn. [...]
Hurts ran the offense as called, save for one or two checks. The Saints made a few second-half adjustments he had trouble countering. Pederson said the struggles were more self-inflicted. But Hurts will need to grow up fast, the more film opposing defenses have to study.
So while the rookie has provided the spark Pederson said he was in search of, and there’s obvious fan excitement about his potential, expectations should be tempered. There are still great unknowns and most options for the future still on the table.
The one that seems the most unlikely, however, is Wentz and Pederson returning together. [inquirer.com]
Over at The Athletic, Bo Wulf and Zach Berman got into a debate over the futures of Wentz and Pederson. The question up for debate here, and it's a good one, is this: "Would you rather have Wentz with a different available coach this offseason or Pederson with a different available quarterback (or Hurts, for that matter)?"
In other words, if only one is coming back next season and the team is going to replace the other, which one would you want?
Wulf: [...] As for your last question, it’s a good framing of the decision facing Jeffrey Lurie this offseason. If we’re playing in fantasy land, I’d prefer Pederson and, say, Trevor Lawrence to Wentz and Lincoln Riley. If we’re talking realistic options, I’d rather roll the dice with Hurts on a rookie contract, a good backup, reasonable draft compensation in exchange for Wentz, and Pederson at head coach than a Wentz-Brian Daboll combination. I might prefer door No. 3 to both options, with a reset at both spots, as long as unloading Wentz is possible. Of course, that’s the complicating factor of the Eagles’ foreseeable future.
How do you answer that one? And “woodpecker you rather” finish the season 2-1 and miss the playoffs while Hurts looks like a potential low-level starter or finish 0-3, get the better draft pick and set up a full tear-down? Do you think sneaking into the playoffs would save Pederson’s job? And which first-round pick in the 2006 NFL Draft were you most wrong about? Probably Matt Leinart for me. I think I fell for the “pro-ready” nonsense and did not anticipate him being a pandemic-denier.
Berman: I suppose the challenge to the hypothetical is we don’t know who the coach is with Wentz or the quarterback is with Pederson. I tend to lean toward quarterback over coach, although Pederson is a proven Super Bowl-winning coach while Wentz has not yet won a postseason game. With that said, if I can have Wentz and a league-average coach or Pederson and a league-average quarterback, I’d still lean toward Wentz. I would never suggest coaches are fungible, but I tend to believe coaches can outstay their welcomes more than quarterbacks. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in NFL history, but I’m not sure he would have matched his Kansas City success had he stayed in Philadelphia. Sometimes, teams need a different voice. The risk with this argument is I’m confident Pederson can be competitive without Wentz at quarterback because I’ve seen it; he can call a good game, he can connect with a locker room. I’m not totally convinced Wentz will be a high-level quarterback again. But given that he could become one, and the scarcity of that type of player, I’d lean toward Wentz. It’s a fascinating question, though, and my answer could change when I’m sitting in bed at 3 a.m. debating it. [theathletic.com]
And finally, we come to the scenario that might make many Eagles fans panic: What if Jeffrey Lurie simply decided to run it back?
We've been long under the impression that someone needed to pay for the mistakes that have led to one of the worst Eagles seasons in memory. And we figured it was going to be Pederson or Wentz, given Howie Roseman's close relationship with Lurie and his ability to survive past regime changes.
But according to former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum, the smartest move for the Eagles would be to bring Wentz, Hurts and Pederson all back for another season.
"There's just not a lot of head coaches walking around this planet right now that can say they have coached a team to a Super Bowl, and that's the object of the exercise," he said.
So keep Wentz, Hurts and Pederson? That would be an unsatisfying result for those seeking sweeping organizational changes following a maddening season. But patience, Tannenbaum argues, is the right play here.
"There was a great speech that was given by Mike Holmgren when the Packers traded for Brett Favre [in 1992]. So Favre was a bust in Atlanta and a lot of people criticized [former GM] Ron Wolf for giving up a first-round pick for a guy that couldn't start in Atlanta, and Holmgren went to Steve Mariucci and Jon Gruden and Andy Reid and a whole bunch of other great coaches and said, 'Hey, guess what? We're all in this together. And this organization will do whatever it takes to make Brett Favre successful. He can take us to where we want to go.'
"I think that's a very similar mindset to the way the Eagles need to approach it with Carson Wentz, which is like, 'Guess what? The solutions we need, it's right here in this building. Everyone -- the coach, the quarterback -- it's all right here, so let's work together and figure out whatever we need to do to make this guy great again.'" [espn.com]
Sure, good luck with that.
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